DEFENCE NOTES

New Delhi, 16 July 2007

Indo-Pak Arms Budget

BELY PEACEFUL LIVING

Defence expenditure has been a major issue and an ongoing concern in the developing world, particularly in India and Pakistan. Especially as the money spent on arms is invariably at the expense of more pressing needs of social and infrastructure development. However, both countries are maintaining an autonomous capability to defend their nation's sovereignty.

Though Pakistan has no threat from India, it is determined to have arms superiority for annexing Kashmir. This has been the strategy of all its Governments --- past and present. Perhaps, also of future Governments.

In the past, Pakistan's defence expenditure has always been on the higher side. Notwithstanding, the fact that its fragile economy has been unable to support the military spending and it has been at the cost of expenses earmarked for development. The reasons put forth by Islamabad for it high defence budget is the perceived security threat from India, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan (which gave the military an opportunity to fulfill its long desired modernization plans) and domestic factors such as societal violence and sectarianism.

Given the immense control the military enjoys over the decision-making process, the defence budget has been prioritised over the social sector. Thus, leading to the retarded growth of the social sector and has badly affected Pakistan's economy. Initially, the declining development budget was financed through debt. Consequently, debt repayment and debt servicing increased the non-development budget.

With the progression of time, borrowings have financed the non-development budget also. Currently, Pakistan is in a position where new loans are being acquired to repay the old ones. Plainly, the defence expenditure has escalated the miseries of Pakistan.

Today, a heavy debt burden, rising inflation and a nation starving for development mark the economy of Pakistan, but it continues to focus on its ever-increasing defence expenditure. Islamabad has always accorded priority to territorial security as compared to social and economic security, using the argument that only its military strength and stability can ensure the overall security of the country.

The Pakistan Government also believes that the effective defence of the borders and the resultant expenditure provide strong spin-off effects for the economy. The implementation of this belief is evident in the gradual increase in the nation's defence expenditure, despite the fact that the Pakistani economy is increasingly unable to support this burden. Resulting in the steadily widening gap between its economic growth and its defence expenditure.

Hence its forces are currently on a modernisation drive with approved plans to acquire some of the most modern weapons systems. Pakistan has proposed an increase of about 10 per cent in its annual defence budget but the actual spending could be far higher as the Government said it planned to allocate separate funds for acquisition of F-16s multi-role fighter jets from the United States and the JF-17 Thunder fighters from China.

The allocation for defence for the financial year beginning from 1July 2007 has been increased to Rs. 275 billion from Rs. 250.2 billion in the budget presented by Minister of State for Finance Omar Ayub Khan. The defence outlay for 2007-08 is more than 17 per cent of the total budget outlay of Rs 1.8 trillion. “Pakistan is a nuclear power,” said Khan in his budget speech, adding, “If any one looks at us with bad motive, we will respond with full force”.

The Daily Times quoted a defence official and stated that the 10 per cent increase in the defence budget was made in view of the tense situation on the western border with Afghanistan, the rising cost of the war on terror and increasing inflation.

The Government, on its part, averred that the defence expenditure had been decreasing as a percentage of the total gross domestic products for the last five years. The defence spending was 6.5 per cent of Gross Domestic Produce (GDP) a few years ago, but it has now come down to 3.5 per cent of the GDP.

Significantly, Pakistan plans to buy a conglomeration of over 70 new and refurbished F-16 fighters fitted with latest weapons systems from the US and is also currently finalising plans to acquire 150 JF-17 Thunder fighters being jointly produced with China. The programme to manufacture the JF-17 Thunders apparently was on course against the backdrop that Russia has reportedly decided to supply 120 high-powered RD-93 jet engines, disregarding Indian objections.

On the other hand, India's defence spending for the year 2007-08 went up to Rs. 96,000 crore from the previous year's budgeted allocation of Rs. 89,000 crore. However, documents reveal that what was actually spent was just Rs. 86,000 crore. Therefore, in real terms, the increase in the current budget is 11.6 per cent or Rs.10,000 crore.

In 1999, India spent Rs. 48,500 crore on defence including the cost of the Kargil conflict. Now the defence forces want that amount to be more than doubled. True, going by the current threat scenario the case for such a huge hike in the defence budget seems to be rather inflated as the peace process with Pakistan is under way. However, defence modernisation should continue.

Moreover, what is of primary importance is to get better and an improved quality of human resource as the present lot is not up to the mark given the rise in the incidents of suicides and shooting of fellow colleagues. This is possible if the career prospects of the armed forces personnel are made more attractive to draw highly motivated youth to the forces.

Thus, the military has planned a massive up gradation of its mainly 1990s-era weapons systems, mostly from its Cold War ally, the erstwhile Soviet Union, now Russia. The plans include the purchase of 126 new combat aircrafts to replace an ageing fleet of MiG-21s. Hence, a sum of Rs 41,000 crore has been allocated for capital expenditure against last year's budgeted figure of Rs. 37,500 crore.

According to the Centre for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, India figures at eighth and Pakistan at 38th in their defence spending out of all the countries in the world. The US spends the highest followed by China on defence. In 2005, while India spent $22 billion ie 2.3 per cent of its GDP on defence, Pakistan spent $3.7 billion or 4.3 per cent of its GDP.

In sum, compared to Pakistan’s budget India must spend at least three per cent of its GDP on defence from the present 2.3 per cent if it wants to retain its supremacy among its hostile neighbours. A higher budgetary allocation would not only act as a security deterrent but also improve the lot of a neglected army and its soldiers who are the lowest paid in the country. ---- INFA

(Copyright India News and Feature Alliance)