Round The World

New Delhi,  29 May 2020

Chinese Incursions

    NEW DELHI’S OPTIONS

  By Dr D. K. Giri

(Prof. International Politics, JMI)

Chinese troops have moved into three-odd kilometers of the Indian territory in Ladakh and have built camps. Indian troops are engaged in skirmishes with Chinese troops along the India-China border. New Delhi is trying to sort this out with talks and negotiations. Some five high-level meetings have already taken place, but the stand-off continues and the incursion has not been reversed yet.

The discussion in the media, among observers, analysts and experts is centered on conjectures about Chinese intent on embarking on this latest border incursion, and how should India respond to it! Parliament is not in session, so no debate, and both Government and Opposition are intriguingly laconic on it. Not that we have been caught on the hop by the Chinese. As per reports in public domain, there were 326 incursions in 2018 which more than doubled to 600 in 2019. Assuming that such incursions have been reversed, this is a recurring pattern at India-China border. More shocking news is China is in illegal occupation of thousands of kilometers of Indian territories in addition to Aksai Chin.

It is a futile debate what instigated China to commit the incursion at the pandemic time. Some observers have cited as possible reasons: the abrogation of Article 370 and bifurcation of J& K, the barriers imposed on Chinese FDI, New Delhi’s position on allowing Huawei marketing the flagship Chinese 5G network, New Delhi building infrastructure on India-Nepal border, or seducing the investors seeking to relocate away from China. Another probable point for Chinese provocation, not mentioned yet, is India taking over the chairmanship of WHO Executive Committee, which might consider favorably the participation and eventual membership of Taiwan in the WHO.

It is of little consequence to find out the reasons for Chinese action. Beijing believes in bullying and bending countries to make them accept its positions on bilateral and intentional issues. Be that as it may, the stark and shocking reality staring at us is that Chinese troops are in our territory on the pretext of calling it disputed. How do we rebuff them and prevent them from trespassing in future? That is the only question that should engage us now.

Experts and observers point to three strategies. One, a somewhat hawkish approach is to stand up to the Chinese like we did in Doklam, enhance our military build-up along LAC, push them back from our territory, even if it leads to a military confrontation. Some would caution that India cannot afford the diversion and the cost at this critical time. 

The second strategy, popular in diplomatic and economic circles is to defuse the crisis by talks and negotiations. If the crisis could be resolved without confrontation, that is preferable. But what does defusing mean, a nebulous word really in this context, when Chinese have illegally entered our territory. One remembers Indira Gandhi as Prime Minister in January 1980 talking of defusing the Afghan crisis as Soviet Union was in occupation of the country.

The third one is to shift the conflict to another area, say South China Sea, or Indo-Pacific arena. That will divert China’s attention and energy. This strategy should have been unrelentingly applied by New Delhi before the current border skirmishes and after. Shifting the area of conflict may not make China withdraw, but may come under some pressure.

To recall from history, New Delhi has faulted in dealing with China ever since the days of Nehru. Many observers have failed to detect Nehru’s motivation in deferring to China. Even Prime Minster Modi has fumbled on dealing with China. The stroll and swing diplomacy reflecting the so-called Wuhan spirit in 2018, and the dinner diplomacy next year in Chennai called ‘China Connect’ sent the wrong message to our friends and partners that we are trying to placate China. On the back of this summit, Xi Jinping signed a slew of projects, partnership agreements with Nepal. Our spreading of the red carpet to Xi gave the excuse to Nepal to embrace the dragon closer.

The Chinese action on the border was predictable. It has violated Indian territories many times before. What was Indian preparedness against it? Did Modi believe like Nehru that China will not invade India’s borders? That is hopefully not the case. Modi is a hard-nosed realist. He could not be so naïve although straying occasionally on the advice of bureaucrats, who cannot think out of box; like he did in addressing the SAARC and NAM meetings, or courting China.

Here we are now! The response to Chinese transgression has to be multifold. First is the military, come hell or high-water, New Delhi should send the tough message to China that we can protect our territory. We will defend our territorial integrity at any cost. That will call the Chinese bluff. War is not an option for Chinese too. They have a lot at stake at the moment. China has invested heavily in India.

The next is political. New Delhi should brief its defence partners like USA, Israel, France, Britain and Russia on the China’s aggression. USA has already started firing from all its cylinders on China, it has barred Chinese companies from trading in the US stock markets, warned China of sanctions if the security law on Hong Kong is brought upon, it has moved a resolution to recognise Tibet as an independent country.

From reports from reliable sources, it has stationed 7 out of 20 aircraft carriers at sea -- these are Ronald Regan, Gerald R. Ford, Abraham Lincoln, NIMITZ, Harry S. Truman, Theodore Roosevelt, and Dwight D. Eisenhower. New Delhi has had a deep defence link with USA in anticipation of such acts of aggression by China. India should sign a defence treaty with America like it did with Soviet Union in 1971, and push China back to where it belongs, beyond our border. In the interim, India should get the US to announce its active support to India in the event of a war. India has the non-NATO ally status with USA. It is time to put more teeth into it.  It is also morally imperative on the West to do so as they built up this monster for economic expediency and trade opportunism.

At the same time, the economic response should consist of stringent barriers on Chinese investment and goods to India. This should be backed by Indians boycotting Chinese products. The diplomatic response would mean keep talking to Chinese. If they refuse to do so, cut off diplomatic contact with China, recall our Ambassador from Beijing. 

Aware that the above approach is risky and costly, we have no other choice. China has betrayed our goodwill time and again, is highly perfidious. It understands only the language of competition and confrontation. We need not waste our time and energy fighting Pakistan, a vassal ally of China and our traditional friend being lured away by Chinese money. We take on the mother of most of our problems and those of the world now. The dragon has to be tamed and caged. This is the priority for all those believing in freedom, solidarity and a rule-based international order.  Let the Great Wall of Democracy fence the dragon in its den. – INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Open Forum

New Delhi, 27 May 2020 

Reform Agenda

IS IT RIGHT STRATEGY?

By Dhurjati Mukherjee

The stimulus package announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has triggered a discussion whether it outlines the government’s broader agenda on reforms. Some economists have been clamouring for reforms, which in effect means, meting out opportunities for business houses and not the micro and small sector. Whether these were necessary to be announced now, when the country is facing an unprecedented crisis, is under question.

Importantly, 22 like-minded Opposition parties have called the package a “cruel joke on the country” and demanded the Centre come out with a revised stimulus that would generate demand. Further, their leaders issued an 11-point charter of demands, prominent being payment of a monthly amount of Rs 7500 for six months to families outside the income tax bracket, distribution of 10 kg of foodgrains for a similar period to needy families and “reversal of all unilateral policy decisions, particularly annulment of labour laws’.

Apparently, there is dismay around the announcements, among the corporate as well as the poor and struggling workers fighting for basic survival. However, what is worse is Sitharaman’s ‘false estimate’ of the stimulus package accounting for 10 per cent of GDP. It has been repudiated by one and all, whether a research organisation or an economist.  

Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research has estimated the fiscal impact of the stimulus stands at 1 per cent of GDP. Even the SBI said the fiscal cost would be 1 per cent of GDP. Other research organisations have given their estimates of which mention may be made of Goldman Sachs – 1.3%, HSBC – 1%, Edelweiss – 0.84% and CLSA 0.8%.

Therefore, it was distressing to hear even Prime Minister Modi remark these bulk reforms would boost entrepreneurship, help public sector units, boost entrepreneurship and revitalise village economy, besides having a transformative effect on health and education sectors. Such jargons are often aired by politicians, but when looked deeply it becomes amply clear that these reforms will not have much effect, except for transferring resources to the private sector, most of which are profit-oriented and don’t have the ability to being competitive on a global scale.    

These so-called reforms are primarily being seen as a bid to attract foreign firms, which may be leaving China and could be a stimulus for the short term. Be that as it may, their implementation, in a judicious manner, without any favour and from a professional perspective would be vital. This means that monitoring of the private sector to ensure its smooth functioning is necessary. 

Let us first take the example of the present state of the village economy. The so-called transfer of an additional amount of Rs 40,000 crore to MGNREGA scheme may appear big but in reality this amount is below Rs 30,000 crore because in the current Budget allocation it was less than last year’s, plus the 7-8 per cent cost escalation was not taken into account. Moreover, migrant labourers’ have returned to their respective homes, mainly in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and, to a lesser extent, in West Bengal and Odisha, and they have to be given employment, at least for the next two-three months before they can return to their place of work.

Insofar as conditions prevailing in rural India are concerned, the less said the better. While profitability is prominent factor in big private sector companies, farmers are struggling for adequate returns to meet basic essentials of life. Also due to fragmented land holdings, the profitability of small plots of land has further come down. Unlike China, the panchayats here have not taken the initiative to form cooperatives so that modern methods of farming could increase yield -- at least twice or thrice a year – and give adequate returns to small farmers.

As always, the grant of Rs 2 lakh crore concessionary credit for farmers, holding Kisan Credit Cards and earmarking an additional Rs 30,000 crore as an emergency working capital may benefit mostly marginal and big landholders to ensure uninterrupted farming operations during the kharif sowing season beginning June. According to expectations, 2.5 crore farmer would benefit from the flow of cheap credit. However, the Rs 6700-crore working capital for States for procurement of agricultural produce may help in giving more cash to the farming community.  

Remember Vinoba Bhave’s Gramdan Bhoodan movement, where the Gandhian walked through villages and collected thousands of acres of land but subsequent governments did nothing to form cooperatives and help sharecroppers to farm land or take up horticulture or floriculture projects. Vinoba’s vision of transforming rural India or even that of APJ Abdul Kalam of proving urban facilities in rural areas (PURA) has yet to become a reality as the focus of planning has been on the urban sector.

Rural rejuvenation should now focus on horticulture, floriculture and agro-based industries, which the government is now considering. Moreover after years, the government has just decided to allocate Rs 6000 crore fund for giving an employment push under the Compensatory Afforestation & Planning Authority (CAMPA). Activities under this plan are expected to include afforestation, forest management, soil and moisture conservation work and wildlife related infrastructure work to help tribal people and adivasis.

Regarding public sector units, it cannot be ascertained what help would be extended. Framing a broad PSU policy or merging some of these is welcome but privatisation of all PSUs in non-strategic sectors is difficult to fathom. Also experts have rightly pointed out that such policy has to be framed in consultation with States since there are a large number of state-level PSUs. Self-reliance has nothing to do with privatisation. Rather the government should try to make PSUs profitable through induction of technology and mergers, wherever necessary.

The decision of privatisation of coal mining and also of power distribution raises a few questions. Handing over some mines to private parties may be considered but it must not be forgotten that in the coal sector private operators’ have been involved in huge scams. Also questions arise whether domestic companies have the technology and expertise to manufacture defence equipment. As regards the decision for privatisation of power distribution, it is inevitable that electricity charges would rise and the EWS and lower income groups may not have the capacity to pay.

Regarding developing health infrastructure across the country and specially in villages is imperative, if the government has real concern for the poor and the EWS. These include backward blocks and sub-divisions of the northern and eastern parts of the country where the population density is high and the per capita income rather poor. Privatising district hospitals is not quite prudent but in congested areas one additional hospital in PPP mode may be considered with regulations on charges the poor would have to pay for treatment.

Finally, the reason for not making available more funds in hands of the State is indeed intriguing and most States have opposed the move and questioned the government’s sincerity of following cooperative federalism. There is need to seriously ponder over this vital matter as resources in the hands of the States would only help in real development, benefitting the poor, the tribals and other weaker sections. The government needs to reorient its strategy but it appears the top leadership is not interested in following a pro-poor, pro-rural geared to strengthen the rural economy. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Political Diary

New Delhi, 26 May 2020

Opposition Void

ANTI-BJP DÉJÀ VU 

By Poonam I Kaushish

Phew! Eight weeks in to the lockdown yet there is no respite from the tu-tu-mein-mein vitriol between the Government and Opposition which continues to get shriller and more odious. Modi has let the country into an economic disaster, yells the Opposition, nonsense, his popularity has gone up, counters the BJP. Bringing to mind Frank Kafka’s adage: One idiot is one idiot. Two idiots are two idiots. Ten thousand idiots are a political Party!

Undeniably, the idea that Modi is Teflon-coated, migrant travails are idle chatter of a defeated and fatigued Opposition and nothing can bring him down might be bunkum for the bhakts. But worse is that the Opposition looks more like a bunch of stricken Covid 19 patients than like determined champions of the democratic mandate to hold the Government to account.

In fact, it is the Opposition’s failure to seize the opportunity or its unwilling to confront and corner the Government on substantive issues of migrant livelihoods and economic mishandling to demand accountability which has ensured that Modi retains his macho numero uno protector image of saving tens of thousands of lives, notwithstanding, IMF predicting that unemployment has already spiked to 26% with 18 crore people losing their jobs in the first few weeks of the lockdown.

Strangely, for reasons best known to it, the Opposition’s politics has largely been in suspended animation, while the BJP has happily been exploiting opportunities provided by the pandemic into even-larger political capital. Despite, the same possibilities being present for the Opposition to put the Government on the mat.

Lest the Modi persona devours it, the Congress interim prima donna Sonia called an 22 Opposition Parties meet Friday, which included Mamata’s TMC, Pawar’s NCP, Stalin’s DMK , Left and latest entrant Thackeray’s Shiv Sena. Others, regional outfits like Samajwadi and BSP have abandoned their turf. Alas, it ended in a whimper with a joint call to dub Cyclone Amphan a national calamity and help Bengal and Odisha on its road to recovery. Nothing more nothing less.  

Clearly, the Opposition faces a catch-22 situation. Suspension of politics during the pandemic lockdown seems to be a secure strategy. But this approach gives Modi an even longer rope to skirt accountability. Because of the apparently hegemonic force of the BJP’s narrative, any Opposition to it runs the risk of being looked at as unabashed opportunistic and even ‘anti-national’.

Paradoxically, Covid 19 gives the moribund Opposition a unique opportunity to resurrect itself, but it is too timorous to claim it. Primarily, because of the disarray within the Congress, the largest Opposition Party.

Crippled by rank desertions, indiscipline, perennial squabbling among senior leaders resulting in a virtual free-for-all with big, small and petty leaders all pulling in different directions who at best can come up with tokenism and “me-tooism”. The older entrenched leaders refuse to let go and the Rahul brigade orphaned and dumped by their leader it is staring at an abyss.  

Not a few senior leaders are worried that politics could spin out of control in the next three months. Privately they count how many more such acts may be in the pipeline at a time when the Party is caught in a whirlpool of political and electoral crises and is confronted with a firmly entrenched BJP topped with “Brand Modi.’

Slowly but surely the Congress finds itself in an existential battle and faces multiple challenges: With Sonia seen as an aging stop-gap President, Rahul as a ‘reluctant leader’ who lacks the reliable and dependable quotient alongside his sister Priyanka who carries the albatross of her Vadra surname. In fact, Congressmen are quietly questioning Sonia’s intentions and policy of protecting-her-son-at-all-cost.

Indeed, the Party has become a prisoner of the highly personalised, feudal functioning and outlook.  In such a Congress system the entire pyramid fastens leech-like feeds on the “undaata”, living off her goodwill. Only those who serve loyalty flourish in the “nomination culture”. Said a disgusted neta, “The decision-making process is so slow. If Soniaji continues with her status quo policy then the Party will fall apart.”

The most unpleasant aspect is the withering of internal democracy. It has made the Party hopelessly dependent on initiative from the Congress President and tragically immobile in its absence. What is more, Congressmen keep scoring debating points against each other and turning every issue into a dissident versus loyalist question. Of sycophants who are as loyal as Vladimir Nabokov’s Lolita!

Bringing things to such a pass that it has became increasingly difficult to decipher who are the heroes and who the villains. Resulting in a blame game between the veterans and Rahul’s “rudderless coterie with each blaming the other for inertia, ghooskhori and lack of grassroot desi connect to counter NaMo’s Hindutva symbolism and nationalistic zeal.

Its recent lumbering attempts at criticism couched as ‘constructive advice’ come across as meek and innocuous suggestions, rather than potent political questioning. Two cases in point. The fracas with UP’s Yogi Government over 500 buses meant to ferry migrant labourers back from Rajasthan which displayed wrong number plates, registration papers of bikes and three-wheelers instead of buses etc. Two, even as it’s heart melts for migrants, it took Rahul 53 days to do one photo-op with them!

Importantly, the Congress needs to find answers to why it has become so weak and what should be the mantra to re-charge the Party apparatus? Notwithstanding, Sonia pitching for waging a “long and forceful war to recover ground.” Certainly, the diagnose of the problem is correct but the Party cannot come up with convincing answers to galvanize its cadres.

Specially, against the backdrop of the Party’s shrinking vote nation-wide and the need to expand its organization and social base in the States ruled by allies or Opposition Parties. An instance, in the run-up to the Delhi polls the battle had narrowed down to between BJP and AAP with the Grand Dame non-existent!

Either which way, it is crucial the Congress takes this risk now or it and other Parties imperil further marginalisation. Urban and rural poor who are worst hit by the economic cost of Covid present a constituency on a platter which the Opposition can directly address. Ditto the case with unemployed and laid-off workers.

Cynical as this might sound it could pave the road to put the Opposition on the right political track to underscore its importance among these voters by emerging as the voice of the poor and the marginalised.

Undoubtedly, the impact of the lockdown may make social issues more prominent again in terms of class, at the expense of caste as well as religious identities and communal tendencies. Consequently, the Opposition has to remain proactive through the current situation.

In the ultimate, the Opposition has to read the writing on the wall. There is no democracy without accountability. And when the aam aadmi is struggling for his survival, it is the Opposition’s inherent duty to demand political answerability. If not for the poor, then at least to secure its own political futures. For if it abdicates this, it would not only be inimical to its own political interests but also spell its collective doom.

Its déjà vu times of the 70”s, what was anti-Congressism then is anti-BJPism now. The Opposition needs a lesson in political ABC, aggression, bounce and confidence. Is it capable of turning a new leaf? It would do well to remember a Talmud saying:  Power buries those who wield it. Politics is a heartless and unforgiving mistress. ----- INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Round The World

New Delhi, 22 May 2020

Tracing Virus Origin

INDIA JOINS THE PACK

By Dr D.K.Giri

(Prof. International Politics, JMI)

In the virtual meeting of World Health Assembly (WHA) held on 18 and 19 May, it was decided to investigate the origin of COVID-19. India added her voice to the international clamour. China finally concurred with the demand. Of 194 countries constituting WHO, as many as 160 had demanded an impartial investigation. China had objected when it was raised first time a week or so ago by Australia.

The other issue that concerned the meeting in Geneva was the participation of Taiwan, which was deferred till the last quarter of this year. But it would remain a contentious issue threatening the continuation of the 72-year old world Body.

On the origin of the virus, many countries believe that it is not natural, man-made. China is responsible for unleashing the virus and endangering people’s health in the entire world.  Beijing did not give out the information on time sought by countries like Taiwan as it was suppressing and manipulating the facts on the ground in Wuhan. The WHO Director, Tedros Abhanom Ghebreyesus, was hand-in-glove with the Chinese government in this cover-up.

The investigation will reveal the facts. A longish letter by Donald Trump secured by us from Trump supporters lists out the litany of lapses of the Director pointing to his complicity with Chinese leadership. Trump has, in the same letter, given an ultimatum to the Director, unless visible changes are made to the structure and working of WHO, he will regularise the freeze on funding announced by the US administration. Furthermore, the US threatens to withdraw its membership of WHO.

The background of Tedros’ appointment lends weight to the above assumption and allegations made by Trump and other countries like European Union, Japan, Australia. New Zealand, Germany and France. Tedros is not a doctor, but a politician from Ethiopia. He is a member of Tigray People’s Liberation Front, a radical socialist group infamous for its terrorist methods. It was accused of violating a slew of human rights including hanging water bottles from the genitals of the victims. The Movement adhered to Marxist-Leninist-Maoist ideologies. Tedros had ideological links with Chinese Communist Party.

Operationally, Tedros was responsible for carrying forward Chinese African dream through his own country Ethiopia. When Tedros was the Minister for Health, and then Foreign Affairs, he hosted the 50^th Belt and Road Summit. He got China to invest $47 million in Ethiopian Railways and billions in building links with other African countries trough Ethiopia. He identified eight industrial parks in Ethiopia to be built by China, and wrote an article in a Chinese official daily jointly with a member of CCP citing it as a model of bilateralism. 

As a part of Chinese tactic of buying influence in the international organisations Tedros was appointed the WHO director defeating a British competitor. It was a pay-off by the Chinese to their lackey in Africa. China is accused of buying similar influence in other bodies. It waived off the entire loan of Cameroon as it withdrew its candidature for the post of Director General of FAO. Beijing did the same with another African country and got its person to be the DG of FAO in Rome.

China has given to the world five plagues- Asian flu, SARS, Avian flu, Swine flu, COVID-19. The world is saying now that we can no longer have these plagues coming from China, whether it is from the labs or the wet market. The US leadership says, “We know it came from Wuhan and there is circumstantial evidence that it could have come from the lab or the wet market. The world can longer afford to plagues coming out of China.”

The second issue that is dominating the strategic thinking of world leaders is the participation and membership of Taiwan in WHO. Taiwan is a democratic country, has done remarkably well in combating COVID-19 and has lessons and help to offer to others. China is playing with Taiwan’s participation. It has complained about the US and other countries politicising the world health body by discussing Taiwan-related matters, not how to fight the virus etc. But China itself has politicised the participation of Taiwan in WHO.

Taiwan participated as an observer from 2009 t0 2016 in WHO meetings. It did not then violate the One China policy that China expects the world to honour. China acquiesced with Taiwan’s participation from 2009-16 as Ma ying-jeou of the pro-Chinese party Kuomintang (KMT) was the President of Taiwan from 2008 to 2016. As Dr Tsai Ing-wen of Democratic People’s Party became the president, China withdrew its support of Taiwan’s participation. D. Tsai’s government is for full independence of Taiwan from China.

The US is advocating full membership of Taiwan in WHO. Other major countries are supporting it. For the Geneva meeting, 16 members made a formal request for Taiwan’s participation. The issue was diluted in favour of an investigation into the origin of the virus, where China’s concurrence was critical. But Taiwan’s membership will keep popping up.

How is New Delhi going to tackle Taiwan’s participation and membership? India will be the chairman of the Executive Board of WHO. So, New Delhi will have a bigger voice on the issue. India has supported One China Policy since 1949, although it has maintained cultural, trade and some diplomatic contacts with Taiwan. The Taiwanese leadership expects the current Indian leadership, known for ‘taking bold decisions’, to support it. 

With regard to New Delhi endorsing One China policy since 1949, one could disregard that legacy as Pt. Nehru was inexplicably deferential to China. Some of us have argued against Nehru’s pro-China approach including giving away our membership in UNSC, nuclear advantage, Tibet and blind faith in China resulting in unpreparedness for 1962 war and so on. That needs to be reversed.

China is openly hostile to India. As I write this, Beijing is showing belligerence in borders like Ladakh, Doklam and elsewhere. It has disregarded New Delhi’s concerns on its support to Pakistan and activities in POK, a disputed territory, which belongs to India, as the unification of India is incomplete. It makes crazy and highly contentious claims in Indian territories.

There is no plausible reason, no quid pro quo, with China until it gives up its claims and stops haunting and harassing India directly or through her neighbours. India must support Taiwan’s membership of WHO and Tibet’s independence from China. The historic wrongs have to be corrected. New Delhi is in no violation of so-called One China Policy as Taiwan was part of WHO proceedings before, an attendee in WTO and APEC etc. It is time for New Delhi to call the Chinese bluff.

Having said that, countries like the US and the EU who often mortgage democratic values and human rights for trade benefit must support India to stand up to China. They are guilty of propping up the dragon and are at a loss to tame it now. If they stick to political values they preach at home, they can better deal with China. The western dichotomy or even hypocrisies in their foreign policies is at the root of most of the world’s problems. They create the problem, and then try to solve it, Iraq, Afghanistan, China, you name it. Stick to the organising principle. Life will be lost easier. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

New Delhi

20 May 2020