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TO PUNISH OR NOT TO PUNISH, By Inder Jit, 3 July 2025 |
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REWIND
New Delhi, 3 July 2025
TO
PUNISH OR NOT TO PUNISH
By
Inder Jit
(Released on 4 April 1978)
What
many have felt all along has now been confirmed by the Shah Commission in its
thought-provoking Interim Report. The greatest excess committed by Mrs Indira
Gandhi and her regime was the proclamation of the Emergency itself. A careful
narration of the facts emerging from the evidence tendered by top government
functionaries before the Commission, together with relevant material culled
from official records, leads to one inescapable conclusion: the proclamation
was mala fide and was designed solely to enable Mrs Gandhi to impose personal
rule on the country and become the de facto Empress of India. The Constitution
was wantonly subverted and a dictatorship established through a hush hush,
pre-meditated coup. Indeed, a veritable war was unleashed on the innocent and
unsuspecting people of India.
The
Interim Report, which runs into less than a hundred printed pages, is expected
to be made available to Parliament by about the middle of the month. At one
stage, it appeared as though the report might be presented to the Lok Sabha
before it adjourned briefly for Good Friday and Holi. But the presentation was
postponed when some Cabinet Ministers insisted at a meeting on March 23 for
time to examine the report carefully. They also cautioned against getting into
another flap. A suggestion that the report be tabled with the announcement that
it was being referred to the Secretaries Committee for processing and necessary
action was found unacceptable. Under the Commission of Inquiries Act, the
Government cannot merely present a report within a six-month deadline of its
receipt. It is simultaneously required to indicate the action it proposes to
take on the report.
A
small committee, headed by the Cabinet Secretary, is now examining the report
and will recommend to the Cabinet follow-up action relating broadly to two
categories. First, issues concerning specific matters such as the abuse of
authority and short-circuiting of procedures. Second, long-term issues such as
the control of intelligence agencies and their role: exception is particularly
taken to the report submitted by the then Intelligence chief to Mrs Gandhi on
developments within the Congress Party. The Shah Commission, for instance,
feels that there is need to provide built-in safeguards to prevent intelligence
agencies from being exploited by any individual for political spying -- as was
strongly demanded in the U.S.A. during the aftermath of Watergate. However, the
committee's principal concern will be devoted to the question of preventing
another over-ambitious leader from imposing personal dictatorship.
What
are the broad facts relating to the proclamation of the Emergency? First and
foremost, the entire operation was put through surreptitiously by Mrs Gandhi
and her hand-picked accomplices almost in the style of a cloak-and-dagger
conspiracy. Neither the Cabinet Secretary, nor the Home Secretary nor the Prime
Minister's own Secretary, Prof P.N. Dhar were anywhere in the picture. Mrs
Gandhi put through the operation with the help of her chosen loyalists. Mr R.K.
Dhawan, her additional Private Secretary, personally took the proclamation to
the President, Mr Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed, and quietly got it signed by him around
11.30 p.m., notwithstanding the advice of Mr Balachandran, Secretary to the
President. Mr Balachandran had earlier taken the stand that the President
should sign the proclamation only in case the Council of Ministers advised him
to do so and not otherwise.
Mrs
Gandhi advised the President to sign the proclamation entirely on her own. In
doing so, she invoked Rule 12 of the Government's Transaction of Business Riles
on the plea that there was unfortunately no time to call a meeting of the
Cabinet. (This rule is said to empower the Prime Minister to permit or condone
a departure from rules in any case.) Once the proclamation was signed by the
President "Operation Emergency" was launched beginning with
countrywide arrests. The Cabinet Secretary was thereafter pulled out of bed at
about 4.30 a.m. and asked to convene an emergent meeting of the Cabinet at 6
a.m. (Under the rules, a Cabinet meeting can be summoned at a notice of one
hour.) The Cabinet met at 6 a.m. -- about six and a half hours after the
proclamation was signed -- and the proclamation approved post facto, leading
Mrs Gandhi to claim that the procedure adopted was entirely constitutional.
Three
questions arise. First, what is the Constitutional requirement in regard to the
proclamation of Emergency? Second, does resort to Rule 12 empower the Prime
Minister to over-ride the Constitution itself? Third, did Mrs Gandhi really
have no time to convene a meeting of the Cabinet before approaching the
President? Insofar as the Constitution is concerned, Article 352
stipulates: "If the President is satisfied that a grave emergency exists
whereby the security of India or of any part of the territory thereof is
threatened, whether by war or external aggression or internal disturbance, he
may, by Proclamation, make a declaration to that effect." As pointed out
by Mr Balachandran to the late Mr Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed, the President's
satisfaction was not personal. It was governed by Article 74 which provides: “There
shall be a Council of Ministers with the Prime Minister at the head to aid and
advise the President in the exercise of his functions."
Constitutional
experts question Mrs Gandhi's claim that resort to Rule 12 empowered her to
by-pass the Cabinet. It is pointed out that Government rules regarding
transaction of routine business could not conceivably be applied to a matter as
grave as the proclamation of Emergency and one to which the Constitution
devotes a whole part. In support, attention is drawn to the section in Conduct
of Government Business and specifically to the wording of Article 77(3) which
provides: "The President shall make rules for the more convenient
transaction of the business of the Government of India and for the allocation
among Ministers of the said business." The experts also argue that Rule 12
only empowers the Prime Minister "to permit and condone" the action
of third persons, namely his colleagues, and not his own. Significantly, the
Transaction of Business Rules include a schedule that lists Proclamation of Emergency
and other subjects mandatorily required to be taken before the Cabinet.
The
Shah Commission's Interim Report leaves no scope for any doubt on the third
point. Mrs Gandhi could have easily called an emergent meeting of the Cabinet
on the night of June 25 prior to approaching the President on her own. As the
evidence adduced before the Commission shows, heavens would not have fallen had
she decided to wait for a day, indeed many more. In fact, the question that
needs to be put is: Did Mrs Gandhi at all wish to take the Cabinet into confidence
prior to the fell act? Or, did she calculatedly choose not to take any chance
and conveniently get post-facto Cabinet approval virtually at gun point? What
is more, an Emergency was already in operation. She could easily have availed
of the powers thereunder to deal with the situation instead of imposing
something unnecessary, unwarranted and illegal. At one point, Mr Justice Shah is
believed to have expressed doubt even about the legality of the second Emergency
when the first was already in operation.
To
cut a long story short, Mrs. Gandhi and her key advisers appear to have been
subsequently haunted by "a guilty conscience" and fear of exposure. A
special exercise was thereupon launched to cover up the track and plug
loopholes. Two specific provisions were inserted for the purpose in the
Constitution in the notorious 42nd Amendment, which have their own tale to
tell. The first added a new clause IV to Article 77 in regard to Conduct of
Government Business which provides: "No court or other authority shall be
entitled to require the production of any rule made under Clause III for the
more convenient transaction of the business of the Government." Further,
anticipating possible trouble about the legality of the Emergency proclaimed on
June 25, the second amendment significantly added a new Clouse IV to Article
352 relating to Proclamation of Emergency. This clause states: "The power
conferred on the President by this article shall include the power to issue
different proclamations on different grounds... whether or not there is a
proclamation already issued..."
Where
do we go from here? Should Mrs Gandhi be punished or not? The Janata leaders
are generally agreed that the Constitution was wantonly subverted by Mrs Gandhi
for personal ends. A few even talk in accents reminiscent of the days of Bishop
Rochester when his cook was ordered "to be boiled to death" for
poisoning his master. But we are not living in medieval times or those of
Charles I when the British Parliament first sought to impeach Lord Stafford for
subverting the system and imposing despotic rule but eventually voted a one-line
resolution that he be beheaded. The Janata leaders are eager to uphold the rule
of law, which creates its own difficulties, including one posed by Article
20(1) of the Constitution which provides: “No person shall be convicted of any
offence except for violation of a law in force at the time of the commission of
the act charged as an offence, nor be subjected to a penalty greater than that
which might have been inflicted under the law in force at the time of the
commission of the offence."
Some
among the doves argue that Mrs Gandhi has already been punished adequately by
the people and, in the changed situation, she should only be fought politically.
But the hawks sharply disagree and are frantically trying to find some way to
punish Mrs Gandhi adequately. Said one Janata leader: "The former Prime
Minister's crime against the people may be unprecedented. It may not have been
foreseen by the Constitution makers. But it must not go unpunished."
Another leader said: "If necessary, we should enact a special law and set
up a special court. Yes, we can get the law through Parliament, if necessary at
a joint sitting of the two houses. Perhaps the Citizenship Act, 1955, provides
a possible way out. Clause 10(2) provides that the Central Government may, by
order, deprive any citizen of Indian citizenship if it is satisfied that (b) "that
citizen has shown himself by act or speech to be disloyal or disaffected
towards the Constitution of India as by law established.”--- INFA.
(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)
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Read more...
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Emergency Revisited: NOW ‘UNDECLARED’: CONG, By Dhurjati Mukherjee, 2 July 2025 |
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Open
Forum
New
Delhi, 2 July 2025
Emergency Revisited
NOW ‘UNDECLARED’: CONG
By Dhurjati Mukherjee
The BJP is marking the 50th anniversary of
the Emergency, emphasising how power was misused by Late Indira Gandhi for
personal interests without considering the broader national interest. Going
into top gear, Union Home Minister Amit Shah highlighted Narendra Modi's “nation
first” approach. Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge launched a counter attack
stating that an “undeclared emergency” has prevailed for the past 11 years and claiming
that Modi is addressing this issue to divert attention from ‘governance
challenges and institutional control’.
Observing June 25, the BJPsaid the Congress
should not divert from the Emergency-era excesses on people and tender an
apology. It insisted it’s imperative to discuss the sufferings the then
government inflicted on people so that it is never repeated. As against this, critics of the BJP-led NDA government are raising questions about freedom
of expression in the country and accusing the government of lacking tolerance
and trampling liberty and fraternity.In particular, they allege journalists and
student activists are being imprisoned for simply being critical of the
government and opposing its policies.
A recent study undertaken by the Clooney Foundation for Justice’s
TrialWatch Initiative in partnership with the National Law University, Delhi
and Columbia Law School’s Human Rights Institute analyzed 624 incidents of
criminalisation of journalists in relation to their work from 2012-2022. The
dataset breaks down 423 criminal cases against 427 journalists across states
and Union Territories of the country. It has been found that reporters in metros
were arrested 24 percent of the total incidents but this rises to 58 percent
for journalists in small cities/towns and villages. The latter are more
vulnerable to arrest and detention as they lack necessary legal support and
access to justice. Across the country, police invoked a multitude of offences
against journalists and registered large number of cases against them.
Additionally, recent data from India Hate Lab, an international research
centre, witnessed a rise in anti-minority hate speeches by an astonishing 74
percent in 2024, year of the General election. Worse, the crisis of free speech
transcends its contamination by hate, it noted. The foundational tenet of
regimes endorsing free speech, as was pointed out in a recent talk byone of the
country’s foremost intellectuals Pratap Bhanu Mehta, has traditionally been
rooted in a milieu of trust between State and citizens.
While the imposition of Emergency has to be condemned in the strongest
possible terms, the Opposition is of the opinion and flogs the BJP’s dislike
for civil society. The authoritarian manner of functioning of Modi has been
successful in controlling all aspects of governance and administration, it
claims. There is no transparency and institutions, vital for a healthy democracy,
have been deprived of autonomy.
A deeper analysis perhaps may reveal that
both the Congress and the BJP have misused the Foreign Contribution
(Regulation) Act(FCRA) to target NGOs and civil society, particularly those
criticizing environmental and human rights issues. This reflects the government’s
fear of an independent scrutiny. The prime minister’s extraordinary and unprecedented act of avoidance of the press exemplifies
this concern, it’s argued. Additionally, there have been attacks on the press,
with journalists and activists jailed under the UAPA for criticising government
policies and highlighting its failures.
The overall hostility to civil society and
independent thought is common worldwide. The BJP, in power in most Indian
states, often uses its authority to suppress and crush civil society organisations,
which are vocal. It is pertinent to mention here
that the French thinker,
Alexis de Tocqueville argued that American democracy thrives because of its
voluntary organisations, which remains true today, but is under threat. After
India's Emergency period ended, democratic culture allowed both critical and
constructive voluntary organisations to flourish, benefiting the political
system and society.
Statistics spell out how democracy is increasingly in peril across the
globe. The Economist’s recent Global Democracy Index indicates that just
6.6 percent of the world’s total population, residing in 25 out of the 165
countries assessed, enjoyed full democracy in 2024. The first GDI in 2006 had
credited 28 countries covering 13 percent of the world population with ‘Full
Democracies’. Ten years later in 2016, it reported a sharp decline with 19
countries and just about 4.5 percent of the world population in that category. The
Economist distributed its results based on 60 parameters in four categories
– ‘full democracies’, ‘flawed democracies’, ‘hybrid systems’ and ‘authoritarian
regimes’. Over the last two decades, much less than one-fifth of the world’s
countries have been described as fully democratic. Despite the dilution of its
content, democracy is still in circulation in the public discourse of political
leaders though they may be practicing ‘hybrid systems’ or ‘flamed democracies’.
Some political analysts have observed that of all the prime ministers India
has had since independence, Indira Gandhi and Modi have been the two
instinctively authoritarian. Both tried to undermine institutions through
autocratic means and ensured a committed bureaucracy and also, to an extent, a
committed judiciary. These prime ministers,it is alleged, would not allow
federalism to flourish, and both used the office of the governor to weaken
elected governments. However, despite her dictatorial ways, Indira Gandhi upheld
the plural idea of India enshrined in the Constitution, wherein citizenship is
not defined in terms of language, religion or ethnicity.
In fact, in the present times, the poison of religious bigotry has
pervaded society and brought enmity, jealousy and hatred among communities.
This resulted in hate speech among political leaders and the steady loosening
of bondage among communities. This bigotry is increasing day by day with the
tacit support of political leaders, who are only interested in reaping
electoral advantage. Political analysts and sociologists rightly point out and,
if unchecked, this may not just destroy democratic plurality but also the
social fabric of the country.---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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Rape & Reality:, INDIA FAILS ITS STREEDHAN, By Poonam I Kaushish, 1 July 2025 |
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Political Diary
New Delhi, 1 July 2025
Rape & Reality
INDIA
FAILS ITS STREEDHAN
By Poonam
I Kaushish
India
is at war with its girls and women. As terrifying tales of savagery, nightmarish rapes, domestic abuse and violence
occur daily. But three incidents over three months have shaken and horrified us once again. Gang rape of a
24-year-old law student inside a Kolkata college campus by an ex-Trinamool
Chhatra Parishad leader is not merely a tragic anomaly, it’s a grim indictment
of a State system that increasingly fails to protect women.
Coming
three months after rape-murder of a postgraduate trainee at R.G Kar Medical
College it underscores nothing has changed: West Bengal’s institutional spaces
are becoming dangerously unsafe and politics often shields the guilty. A cue of
how political affiliations enable a sense of impunity.
Even
as Mamata’s TMC publicly condemned the act and sought distance, its silence on
the broader issue of student safety and political interference speaks volumes. The
State’s crime rate against women is 71.8 per lakh population, higher than
national average 66.4 while conviction rates remain worryingly low.
In
March, picturesque idyll Hampi, Karnataka turned into horror for five: two
Israeli women who were raped and three men thrown into the canal. Yes, police swung into action, arrests were made.
Yet, once again we were reminded that a decade plus after Nirbhaya, brutal
sexual violence continues to run rampant country-wide. Don’t variations of this
happen to innumerable women in India?
Confronted
with conscience-jolting and repugnant acts of depravity, India reacts with
vindictive anger and revulsion. But the howls of vigilantist fury that reverberates
through corridors of power stands apart for their immaturity and impetuosity
Alas,
a lot of political outrage is along Party lines, reflecting a hellish
normalization of sexual brutalities. But gang-rape is not an aberration. It is
the outcome of a system where institutional decay, political muscle and silence
enable recurring violence.
Last
year, after a Spanish tourist with her partner was gang-raped in Jharkand guess
what our National Commission for Women was concerned about? The entire country
should not be ‘vilified,’ as over 6 million tourists arrive, many of them
single and their safety we take very seriously. Sic. It’s another matter,
Albania, one-sixth Karnataka’s size gets 12 million tourist but is safe.
Undeniably,
India regularly ranks among most dangerous and unsafe for women. Wherein, rape
is a “national problem”, according to UN Human Rights Commission. Sounds harsh?
But hearing rape is not harsher than living rape. We live in a society where
marital rape is legal. Even a wife’s subsequent death doesn’t weaken a
husband’s immunity, a High Court said recently.
Arguably,
when law doesn’t take rape too seriously, neither does India. This begs a question: Why is
India failing its women so miserably? Are they gajar-mooli which can be relished and then spat out?
Perhaps it has something to do with our patriarchal lineage and
misogynistic culture whereby, we show utter disregard and disrespect for
women. The Hathras rape case brought forward the barbarism of those who sit at
top of the gender and caste hierarchical systems.
As
sexual violence is not only a structural outcome of entrenched patriarchy but a
political failure. When male-dominated institutions, be it educational, legal
or political treat women’s bodies as collateral damage in power struggles,
violence becomes normalised.
Clearly,
in a society which lives with the regressive mindset that freedom and equality
for women tantamount to promiscuity, we swing between two extremes. One where a
girl child is bad news and nurtured on “conform” paranoia: Not to rock the
boat, be fearful of what lies around the corner and subjecting them to
countless restrictions in the name of women’s protection. Whereby fathers make
the rules, husbands enforce them and male bosses reiterate them, speaking out
against someone’s wrong doing is tough.
Sadly
a large section of women do not have rights over their bodies and are viewed as
sex objects and mince-meat for male lust camouflaged as human animals to either
comply or reconcile to battling it out at every level. They are morally policed
by society, their bodies sexualized right from their choice of wearing dresses
to make-up.
Recently,
a BJP leader charged “women in ripped jeans and running towards nudity” for
rising cases of moral turpitude, his Bihar colleague advised women to carry
condoms and accept rape, a Rajasthan Minister blamed TVs and mobiles for “fast”
girls read loose morals, a Haryana khap leader
said eating Chinese chowmein caused rape, another counseled women to get
‘godfathers’ who can “make them” professionally. A Maharashtra Minister
asserted liquor sale would increase if they are given women's names
‘Bobby’-‘Julie’.
Instead
of punishing attackers for heinous crimes, victim-blaming and slut-shaming a
woman for the choices she makes is what our society resorts to save its
“honour.” One only has to see our community attitudes and derogatory comments
on social media to comprehend how women are treated. Either way the damage is
done. Getting married and raising kids
is the core of female existence. Sic.
In
a culture where the national narrative conditions people to think that sexual
harassment has no consequences; where sex crimes are dismissed as result of an
imbalanced sex ratio; and where women have little or no cultural respect, it is
going to be a steep uphill to change what is just ‘normal’.
Rape
is not just an act of lust or anger; it is often an assertion of dominance,
enabled by systemic failures and cultural silence. Unless both patriarchy and
political capture are addressed together, safety reforms will remain cosmetic.
Shockingly,
the National Crime Records Bureau reveals crime against a woman is committed
every minute, rape every 5 minutes, dowry death occurs every 77 minutes and
cruelty committed by either husband or relative occurs every 9 minutes. Any
wonder our high rate of female infanticides and sex-selective abortions.
Undeniable
it is a wake-up call for change. Women safety cannot be restored without urgent
and tangible reforms. One, police must be guaranteed autonomy to investigate
cases without political interference. Two, empowered internal complaints
committees and crisis cells staffed by gender-sensitised professionals. Three, public
commitment to zero tolerance for violence, with action against those who
intimidate or coerce. Four, survivors must also be empowered by improving
access to legal aid, mental health support and fast-track courts.
We
need to change our approach to sexual harassment. One option is radical
feminism to make a social impact and safety of women an important article of
faith with people, society and Government. Laws should be tightened which would
deter men to think thousand times before they commit crime, along-with
transparency, accountability and good governance. Our leaders need to pay heed
and address this seriously.
Every
rape is a dark moment --- but it should also be a turning point. Governments has made false
promises of ensuring safety and fast-track courts still remain a far-fetched
assurance for assault victims. If India wishes to remain a place that values
equity and justice, it must break the grip of power networks and re-establish
the rule of law. Anything less would betray the victims.
We
need cry halt to women being playthings of voyeuristic men. Will she continue
to constitute weaker gender? Will we persist to wallow in tokenism? Or break new
ground and unshackle women? Will there be beginning of a new dawn to make “Her
Story?” ---- INFA
(Copyright
India News & Feature Alliance)
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Strengthening Resilience through Media Literacy and International Cooperation |
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  Tackling FIMI – Strengthening Resilience through Media Literacy and International Cooperation
The Centre for International Relations, in cooperation with the Schumacher Centre, INFA and the Indian Journalists Union, is leading an international initiative aimed at addressing the growing challenge of Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI) in the Indian media landscape. The project focuses on strengthening media literacy, promoting fact-based narratives and enhancing societal resilience in the face of disinformation campaigns related to the ongoing global information conflict.
Working closely with local media professionals and academic partners in India, the initiative involves systematic monitoring and analysis of media content, identification and debunking of misleading narratives, and the promotion of balanced and verified information.
Key components of the project include:
Monitoring and analysis of FIMI-related narratives in Indian media,
Information campaigns to present accurate facts and foster a better understanding of the war in Ukraine and its international context,
Workshops and capacity-building sessions for journalists, journalism students, and media stakeholders to improve their ability to recognize and counter foreign manipulation techniques.
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Iran’s Economic Leverage: NEW ARMS MARKET EMERGING, By Shivaji Sarkar, 30 June 2025 |
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Economic Highlights
New Delhi, 30 June 2025
Iran’s Economic
Leverage
NEW ARMS
MARKET EMERGING
By Shivaji
Sarkar
Iran’s reassertion of power after its
military confrontation with Israel isn’t just about geopolitics — it has the
potential to reshape the region’s economic landscape in
profound ways. With rising stature, renewed alliances, and access to key trade
corridors, Iran may increasingly position itself to become a central economic
actor in West Asia and beyond.
The Israeli assaults exposed the
unfathomed capacity that Iran has. It demonstrated its power to devastate Tel
Aviv to Israeli gateway to Europe, the Haifa port, and dreams of the western India–Middle
East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). Iranian coordinated strategy flanking to
Yemen, Lebanon and Gaza has had heavy cost on Israel and its master allies.
For the first time Iran openly
targeted Israel from its own territory in such scale, signalling new strategic
confidence. It’s no more a pariah.It has put to myth that President Donald Trump was reshaping the Middle
East by drawing closer to Israel's long-term adversaries. The assault
exemplified that fear is not about Forget everything and run but it could also
mean Face everything and rise. That is being termed as the major gain for an
isolated Iran, which, some thought, was crushed under sanctions. It is also a
showcase that an arms market exists beyond the Western dominance. Would new
arms player emerge? It is quite likely and dependence on the West could
dwindle.
The U.S.-Israel military objective may
not have been to dismantle Iran’s nuclear facilities — but rather to subdue and
isolate a defiant regional power that had become a rallying point for anti-West
forces. This fits a broader historical pattern seen with Egypt, Iraq, Libya,
and Afghanistan.Indeed, if reports of US-Iran backchannel talks are true, they
indicate Washington may prefer a contained, partially integrated Iran. But not
one capable of leading an anti-West coalition.Any Western assistance for
reconstruction will come with tight political strings, limiting Tehran’s space
for ideological defiance.
Yet, while Tehran may have gained in
perception and prestige — particularly among its allies and adversaries — it's
important to temper that view with realism.Iran’s rise, for now, is more
symbolic than structural, and whether it can reshape regional economics in a
lasting way depends on how it navigates post-conflict isolation, economic
strain, and complex alliances. The potential is there, but the path forward is
anything but assured.
Iran holds some of the world’s largest
reserves of oil and gas. In a less sanctioned world, this would be an obvious
economic advantage. But despite its ability to keep exports flowing under the
radar, Iran remains financially strangled by Western sanctions.China may buy
oil, but it avoids direct capital transfers. Financially strained Russia, under
US sanctions, offers little support. Gulf states, despite some improvement of
relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran, are unlikely to challenge the sanctions
by funding its recovery.Iran's energy power is real — but its monetization
remains limited by external constraints and internal inefficiencies.
Iran's role in the International
North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) – the link for connecting Russia and
Central Asia, could, in theory, shift regional trade patterns. But decades
after conception, the corridor still faces poor infrastructure, political
fragmentation in the region and India’s ambivalence as it also bets on the
Gulf-centric IMEC.Without external investment and regional stability, INSTC
remains an underutilized alternative, not a transformational one.
An emerging new axis of economic cooperation
of - Tehran-Baghdad-Damascus-Beirut- can turn Iran’s political control
across Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. It might translate into the “Shia
Crescent” viewed as turning into a semi-integrated trade and logistics block,
with Iranian goods, fuel, and currency flowing across borders. There are views
that the US and the sunniArabs would not like it.
Wouldthe fledgling Crescent be able to
undermine the US-backed economic models in the region; create alternative
energy and trade routes, especially as Syria begins tentative reconstruction?
Would the West allow Tehran to dominate grey-zone economies that operate
outside Western sanctions regimes?
Iran, also a BRICS member, with China
its emerging sympathiser, might become an important player in de-dollarising. In
reality, with its rupee trade with India decades back, it had rolled it on.
India cocooned under the sanctions but still Iran maintains ties with India and
could be a strength for BRICS, much to the chagrin of MAGA backers. It’s
uncertain if the US would let Trump dream of – MIGA- Make Iran Great Again, a
reality or push an anti-Iran tirade?Could there be an end or a new beginning to
the tri-religion – Judaism, Christianity and Islam - Abrahamic war?
Iran is exploring crypto, currency
swaps, and non-dollar trade. But these measures remain tactical workarounds,
not scalable systems; vulnerable to secondary sanction; unattractive to larger,
risk-averse economies, including India. The India-owned Chabahar port despite
initial success is stuck. While symbolic, these financial alternatives don’t
yet offer the foundation for a new economic order.
India has to reassess and take steps
to become a leader of the global South. It may have to change its tack on Gaza
and force Israel to stop strikesas also negotiate with the Palestinians on
humanitarian ground, ask the West to allow a free trade with Iran, establish
peace in the region and shed ambiguities in diplomacy. It has to demonstrate
mettle at the upcoming BRICS meeting in July. Launched on the sidelines of the
2023 G20 summit in New Delhi, the IMEC was hailed as a counterweight to China’s
Belt and Road Initiative and Pakistan. It aimed to connect Indian ports to the
UAE and Saudi Arabia, and further to Europe via rail and shipping routes.
Tehran’s manoeuvres—diplomatic,
military, and strategic—have complicated India’s outreach and interests across
West Asia. The IMEC's architecture carefully excluded Iran. That exclusion
sowed the seeds of strategic retaliation from Tehran.Iran’s gains in stature
are real — but they don’t automatically translate into economic dominance. The
perception of strength post-conflict may help Iran politically, but rebuilding
its economy and reshaping regional economics will require a stable, long-term
détente with the West, major infrastructure investments, and an exit from
isolation — none of which are currently guaranteed.
So, can Iran reshape regional
economics?Yes — but only if it first reshapes the constraints that still define
its economy. And that, for now, remains a possibility, not a certainty.---INFA
(Copyright,
India News & Feature Alliance)
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