Open Forum

New Delhi, 15 November 2023

Climate Goals

CAN INDIA MEET CHALLENGE?

By Dhurjati Mukherjee 

With the UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) scheduled to begin on 30 November in the UAE, meeting climate goals would be in the forefront. Moreover, as usual, the developing countries will pressurise the developed nations to grant more resources to the former to switch to green technologies. But again though per capita emission of countries such as India, Brazil or even China are much less compared to the Western world, the total emissions of these countries are a cause for concern and would be a bone of contention. 

The Presidency outlined four key goals this year, alongside the negotiations process which includes fast-tracking a just, orderly and equitable energy transition, fixing climate finance, putting nature, lives and livelihoods at the heart of climate action and mobilising for the most inclusive COP so far. Speeding up the energy transition is set to be the main issue, as countries remain divided over how to tackle the world’s unsustainable use of fossil fuels. Clearly, western nations would be pushing for a world to first phase out the ‘unabated’ global use of coal, oil and gas. Other negotiating blocks and countries are likely to push back on this, including major fossil fuel producers like Saudi Arabia and developing countries, which are relying on fossil fuels to grow their economies. 

The need for an ambitious agreement will be underscored by the first-ever global stock taking at the very start of the summit. This ‘report card’ on climate progress will show how far countries are from meeting their commitments under the Paris Agreement to limit global warming. 

Meanwhile, in spite of the multiple challenges faced by countries, a recently released report of the Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF) -- an international coalition of 58 countries highly vulnerable to a warming planet -- revealed that India, Indonesia, the UK and Switzerland are among many economies currently on track to meet the Paris agreement goals based on their pledged targets for 2030. Of the major economies, India, home to almost a fifth of the world’s population, produces just 2.9 tonne of CO₂ per person compared to the G7 average of 11.7 tonne per capita emission (2022 data). Against the global per capita emission of 6.4 tonne of CO₂ in 2021, EU’s (27 nations) per capita emission is just 8.1 tonne and the US’s per capita emission stands at 17.5 tonne – six times more than India. 

Flagging the gaps, the CVF’s study titled ‘Traffic Light Assessment Report: Fair Share Pathways to Combat Global Climate Breakdown’ aims to hold nations accountable by assessing their alignment with the “Paris Agreement’s temperature and equity in principles.” Though the report is quite hopeful for India, delving into the matter and considering the increasing energy needs in the coming one or two decades, the scenario may not be all that encouraging. 

As far as New Delhi is concerned, the energy sector needs to adopt new technologies. The country imports around $160 billion worth of fossil fuel energy and this is likely to double in next 15 years or so. Over 75% requirements are met by fossil fuels like oil, gas and coal. Thus, there is need to develop green hydrogen as it will help India to decarbonise sectors such as steel, cement, fertilizer, copper, oil refining etc, the steep reduction in solar and wind power rates makes green hydrogen an ideal production route. 

At CO26, India pledged to net zero carbon emissions by 2070 with commitments to half its energy from renewables and lower the carbon intensity of the economy by at least 45% from 2006 levels within 2030. Carbon-related industrial processes must shift to cleaner technologies which have already started but more needs to be done to achieve the target. Similarly, buses and transport vehicles will have to give way to electric vehicles, which are being used in metros but must be spread faster across the country. 

The transformation of the automobile sector will span from primary to component manufacturing as EVs are capital intensive, require batteries but few components. These changes would be aided by information and communication technology, AI etc. Experts are unanimous in their opinion about green hydrogen being the best option in our quest to reduce carbon intensity. It is believed this will leverage the country’s abundant solar and wind resources and substantially reduce energy imports in the long run.  

India is estimated to consume 11.7 million tonnes of carbon-intensive grey hydrogen by 2030 primarily in the refinery and fertilizer sectors, two-fold of the 5.5 million tonnes as of present times. This needs to be checked as global warming can’t be allowed to aggravate. The new hydrogen capacity must be green that could help bring down pollution to a great extent. 

Meanwhile, 15 global health leaders, including three from India, demanded that fossil fuel industry interests be kept out of climate negotiations. “Fossil fuel interests have no place at climate negotiations”, health experts stated in an open letter to Sultan Al-Jaber, President designate of COP28and UAE minister. The signatories called on him and leaders of all countries to commit to an accelerated just and equitable phase-out of fossil fuels to limit global warming and protect health from the devastating impacts of climate change, including extreme weather events. 

India is committed to steadily phase out fossil fuel and has declared the National Green Hydrogen Mission pledging a capital outlay of Rs 19,744 crore targeting 5 million metric tonnes by 2030 which will be zero carbon. Hydrogen can be utilised for long-duration storage of renewable energy, replacement of fossil fuels in industry, clean transportation and potentially also for decentralised power generation, aviation and marine transport. Experts believe his would bring down the price of hydrogen from the present $4 per kg to around Rs $1 by 2030. 

Indigenisation of electrolyser manufacturing will be the key for India to accelerate the green hydrogen ecosystem. To address the low supply in the world, the country is building capacities to produce 20GW of long-lasting electrolysers in the present decade. Though this is a big challenge, it is expected that technical knowhow as also investments would be forthcoming. Besides, the country’s electrolyser manufacturing costs are expected to be 30% lower than western nations and comparable to China. 

Reports indicate that 70% of the electrolyser manufacturing components can be indigenised and domestic production can go up further with right partnerships for technology and manufacturing knowhow of critical components.                  

Obviously, the green transition brings unique challenges, new opportunities with some risks as well. The change in mining technology and the vast coal economy of the country are vital challenges in India’s quest for a green economy. Though both China and India have consistently refused to phase out coal-fired power, not just at COP26 and even later, innovative solutions need to be found to reduce emissions from such plants. With steady mechanisation of these plants, employment is steadily getting reduced which is a problem for our country and may be for others too. 

The long road to 2070 is quite far off but there is a need to think and evolve right strategies. The public sector must take the lead and develop cooperation with foreign countries for joint ventures and/or technology transfer.  If green hydrogen production can be boosted – and already BPCL is collaborating with Bhabha Atomic Research Centre – India would be much ahead in controlling carbon intensity and shifting to green energy.  ---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)