Political Diary
New Delhi, 10 October 2023
Mandal 2.0 Vs Kamandal
WILL CASTE NOOSE STIFLE INDIA?
By
Poonam I Kaushish
Even as one empathises with Jews and Palestines caught
in the crossfire of Hamas-Israeli forces and people trapped in the crosshairs
of Russia-Ukraine’s war, few have paid scant attention to hostilities in India. Succinctly, poster war
between arch rivals BJP-Congress, which promises to get vicious and acerbic with
announcement of polls in 5 States next month. Jumla vs Ravaan.
However, this is just thin edge of the wedge. More
important are ramifications of the caste survey by Opposition-ruled Bihar which
now has ballooned to other States: Odisha, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka as
it captures the socio-political imagination, going beyond electoral tags and
identities to divide people on caste lines, as happened during Advani's Ayodhya rath yatra Mandir-Mandal row 1990.
Recall, Janata Dal
constituents were Mandal Commission’s largest beneficiary. The Samajwadi and RJD
represent Yadavs, RLD and INLD Jats, Karnataka’s Gowdas Vokkaligas. BJP has
successfully created a wedge between Yadav-non-Yadav OBCs in UP and Bihar, thereby
reducing these Parties influence. But for how long?
In INDIA bloc’s thinking when caste becomes central to
livelihood issues which are centred on identification and reservation, they
feel there is a greater chance it will have greater electoral pull than
religion. Congress’s Rahul has already sounded the bugle “Jitne abadi utna haq,” to garner votes and somehow dislodge Prime Minister Modi.
Bihar Chief Minister Nitish has called for lifting 50% reservation
ceiling. Rajasthan’s Gehlot has announced 6% reservation to Most Backward
Castes in addition to 21% for OBCs.
On the face of it,
Opposition leaders assert goal of caste census is OBCs welfare, Sic. It’s a
ploy to divide Hindu votes on caste lines to weaken BJP in 2024 elections. Said
a senior Congress leader, “Caste census would open another flank and create
problems for BJP. The axis would be
pro-Modi vs anti-Modi and we will try
to mobilise OBCs. This will be Mandal 2.0, different from Mandal 1.0 which
involved aggressive OBC mobilization.”
Failing to realize politicisation of caste is a double-edged
sword. Caste needs politics as much as politics need caste. When caste
groupings make politics their sphere of activities they get a chance to assert
their identity and strive for power and position.
Sadly to gain vote-banks none have paid heed to the
Frankenstein they have unleashed. True,
none can fault granting equal opportunities to all. But whether this would
translate into equal outcome is debatable. Questionably, will not caste further
fractionalize national politics? Will the run-up to 2024 elections be fought on
caste basis?
For BJP caste might not
have become a big issue as it has now, had it not been for the Party's bid to
retain the Hindu vote-bank . Certainly, Ayodhya temple’s sanctification
slated for January might be an electoral draw. Yet, it may not be a big
political issue as Babri Masjid demolition was December 1992 .
Besides, the Party shot itself in the foot by delaying the
decennial Census 2021-2026, resulting in Opposition combine promising a
caste-based Census soon. Though, INDIA bloc
is yet to prove it has the delivery mechanism to take on BJP at grassroots
level, vis-à-vis interests and
aspirations of aam aadmi. As a counter, BJP too could promise caste census in
2026, before Opposition gets its act together.
As it stands BJP has the
highest support of OBCs which has grown exponentially from 7% in 1971 to 22% in
2009 and doubled to 44% in 2019. The NDA received 54% OBC support in 2019. As
Modi hails from this community, the Party’s claim of higher representation to
OBCs in ticket allocations and at the Centre alongside formation of the Justice
Rohini OBC Commission to address their issues through the Constitutional
framework have helped it get OBC support.
Hence, Party might
implement the Commission’s report to counter Opposition’s narrative of “Jiski jitni sankhya bhaari, uski utni
hissedaari” to further
consolidate its support amongst lower OBCs. However, this strategy is fraught with risks as BJP would need to renounce
its formula of consolidating caste groups in Hindutva’s name and strong
nationalism.
Pertinently,
Justice Rohini Commission formed 2017 for sub-categorisation of OBC groups, over
2,600 in the Central OBC list, accounting for 41%-52% of population, getting 27%
reservation in Central Government jobs and educational institutions, so that
benefits could be equitably redistributed submitted its report in July. Its finding found 97% jobs and education seats had
gone to 25% of OBC sub-castes while 983 OBC communities had zero
representation.
Interestingly, OBC sub-categorisation
has been implemented at Panchayat level by West Bengal, Tamil Nadu,
Maharashtra, Andhra, Telangana, Karnataka, Jharkhand, Bihar, J&K, Haryana
and Puducherry. An example in Bihar there are two categories: OBC 1 and OBC 2
(Economically Backward Classes). The former has 33 sub-caste groups, latter 113
of which 18% State Government jobs and seats in educational institutes are
reserved for EBCs, 12% for OBC 1 castes and 3% for OBC women.
BJP has also focussed
its efforts on non-dominant OBCs and MBC, which have been ignored by Opposition
Parties. This strategy has helped the Party against the Mahagathbandhan in UP 2019 general elections across all socio-economic
classes amongst OBCs, except middle class.
Resulting in SP being reduced
from 35 MPs in 2004 to just 5 in 2019; RJD from 22 seats in 1999 and 2004 to zilch
in 2019; RLD from 5 seats in 2009 to nil in 2019; INLD from 5 in 1999 to zero in
2019 and JD(S) from 16 in 1996 to 1in 2019.
The BJP over 9 years
has successful broken caste-based narratives, uniting upper castes, backwards,
Dalits and tribals under its Hindutva umbrella and nationalism pitch. Consequently,
out of every 100 BJP voters 49 belong to OBC community. A fact which bugs
INDIA.
The sub-categorisation
of OBCs and separate quotas for MBC’s who account for over 75% of OBC population could further consolidate
their support in favour of BJP in the
2024 general elections, deflect attention from the caste census as also help
break the Opposition’s narrative.
Conversely, the more demands for caste surveys and
reservations are raised, there is an equally greater chance and opportunity for
BJP to package it as a ‘divisive agenda’ against their ‘national unification
call’ centred around Hindutva. Any wonder its UP Chief Minister Yogi has
declared Sanatana Dharma as the only
religion to counter Bihar’s caste survey. No matter this could open a Pandora's
box.
However, unleashing the Rohini Commission report is
fraught with risks. Any effort to polarise votes on the basis of caste could
mean moving away from tried-and-tested Hindutva and nationalism plank of the
Party.
Currently, OBCs are
seen as two blocks by BJP --- dominant and non-dominant, upper and lower. It intends
to woo dominant castes like Yadavs, Kurmis, and Kushwahas in Bihar and UP and
Vokkaligas in Karnataka. Any sub-categorisation will close doors on these sub-castes
and make Mandal 1 progenies Akhilesh, Lalu and Nitish stronger in their
communities.
Will the BJP take such
a risk before 2024? This remains to be seen. Either
way the caste Frankenstein must be stopped. This is no time for mindless populism of Mandal vs
Kamandal politics as it will only further divide people on caste lines and
increase the chasm between the haves and have-nots. If Bharat has to reach its
pinnacle of success it cannot revel in petty politricks. ---- INFA
(Copyright,
India News & Feature Alliance)
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