Political Diary
New Delhi, 25 July
2023
39 Modi’s NDA Vs 27 Jeetega INDIA
COALITIONS BACK ON CENTRESTAGE
By Poonam I Kaushish
2014 we bid adieu to messy
multi-Party coalitions amidst fractured mandates. But as happenings last week underscore
obituaries of alliance politics was hasty. With 27 Opposition Parties coming
together as INDIA (Indian National Developmental, Inclusive Alliance) and BJP
pushing to expand NDA to 39 after allowing it to atrophy for years, coalition
dynamics have vaulted to top agenda 2024 with the winner taking all.
The new coinage is intended to place
the nation against BJP-NDA's electoral mascot: Modi. And trust NaMo to hold a
parallel NDA conclave on the same day as Opposition's Bengaluru meet to say the
fight is on.
Shocked BJP strategists are cursing
the wordsmith who coined INDIA alongside Jeetega
Bharat and are busy finding ways to stop Opposition from using it as its
main campaign slogan in next year's Lok Sabha polls. Given how adroitly
Opposition not only hijacked “Bharat”
from BJP's traditional slogan, but also translated it from their new name,
'INDIA', to mean one and the same thing. Specially as the Constitution begins
with the phrase, 'India that is Bharat'. They are now busy deriding Opposition
as upper-class India’s Lutyens gang against its homegrown Asli Bharat.
The way BJP is going about the name
has given Opposition confidence that they may after all, be on the right track.
Whether it fears a backfire on INDIA is debatable. Successive Enforcement
Directorate raids on Tamil Nadu's DMK Ministers, after the first Opposition
conclave in Patna and again prior to Bengaluru meet is a clean give-away. Whether
there is any link, the fact is that 8 of 27 INDIA member-Parties are from Tamil
Nadu.
Pertinently, INDIA is the closest acronym
Opposition has come after Sonia Gandhi's ‘Aam
Aadmi’ against Vajpayee-led BJP's ‘India Shining!’ campaign 2004 which concluded
that for the common man his India was not shining resulting in UPA ruling till
2014. The same, Opposition now hopes and prays, would be the fate of Modi's
successful 2014 ‘Achche Din’ and 2019
Sab ka Saath, Sab ka Vikas, Sab ka
Vishwas '.
Questionably how will INDIA
translate at the ground level as individual candidates are going to contest
only on their Party name and symbol, and INDIA as an acronym would have no
place there. The Constitution does not recognize Parties and Representation of
the People Act also does not identify electoral alliances, pre-poll or
post-poll.
Look at the dichotomy. AAP’s Delhi
and Punjab units are vehemently opposed to joining hands with Congress. In
Bihar JD(U)’s Nitish is sulking that Congress has wrested his numero uno status and calling the shots,
hence his reluctance to be convenor of INDIA. CPM strongly criticizes TMC’s
Mamata as anti-democratic in Bengal and its Left vs Congress in Kerala. Will Thackeray’s Shiv Sena support Muslim quota
as envisioned by Congress?
Importantly, Congress has to avoid
the pitfall of its record of failures in dealing with poverty and lack of
development as its narrative around guarantees might fail to cut ice with
voters. It along with others will have to clearly define which social segments
it seeks to align with, Dalits, Adivasis, small farmers, urban poor and
unorganized earners in service sector.
Moreover, a coalition cannot just be
woven around an anti-Modi theme. It needs a vibrant script. Even as it
underlines ‘inclusive’ in its name, BJP has usurped it by succeeding in drawing
a parallel with politics of appeasement. Besides, both Patna and Bengaluru draw
attention to challenges Opposition faces rather than those it is likely to pose
to BJP.
One, they will have to make clear
their coming together has nothing to do with their Ministers being questioned
by CBI-ED. True, cases against AAP’s Sisodia, TMC’s Abhishek Bannerjee or DMK’s two Ministers has stoked
resentment in their respective Parties but their anger does not add up to an
alternate as BJP has succeeded in casting the onus of defending their innocence
on the Parties.
That many of these Parties have
skeletons in their closets has not helped them. The cause of Opposition unity
needs to be larger than the threat to its individual members. Also, as many
Congress, SP, RJD, DMK are helmed by dynasts, INDIA needs to find a larger idea
and build a bigger whole.
They now have the onerous task of
proving to people that it is not Sab ka
Saath, Sab ka Vikas and Achche Din’
either for the aam aadmi, as only the
rich have become richer and the poor, poorer, in 'Modi's India'. If they want
to play the game right INDIA will have to start lengthening their stride.
Remember, a weak Opposition by any name will remain a weak Opposition.
Additionally, INDIA’s backbone are
regional Parties and their fight against BJP is at the same time a fight
against a domineering Centre. Towards that end the RJD-JD(U) in Bihar, TMC in
Bengal, Congress in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh have taken a leaf out of Modi’s vikas, inclusiveness and soft Hindutva.
Two, in terms of seats NDA (323) is
far ahead of INDIA (134) but the vote shares: NDA’s 42% to INDIA’s 35% make them competitive. Further,
BJP might feel confident of having majority States under its belt along-with
its partners but it should remember vote shares often don’t transfer perfectly.
Thus, seat-sharing arrangements will be key.
Further, in NDA 22 of 39 Parties
have zero seats in Parliament but they convey an important signal to their
respective social groups. In UP BJP is dominant but has Apna Dal and Nishad
Party not due to their strength but message to non-dominant backward
communities. Modi dubs it “a beautiful
rainbow where no Party is big or small”, signaling a tactical shift and
accommodative NDA? As centralization within the Party has resulted in diminishing
of its State leadership that has returned to haunt.
Certainly, BJP which faces mounting
discomforts of two terms incumbency needs fresh thinking and ideas. The rout in
Karnataka and its failure to make inroads in 5 Southern States which send 130
MPs have made it incumbent to begin its scorecard therein.
Opposition too will need clarity on
why it is keen on displacing BJP. A coalition to jointly defeat the ruling
Party is understandable but it is necessary to convince themselves that only by
coming together can their survival be insured. Beyond that they will need
lucidity about what they are opposed to. Mere Modi-baiting is not a convincing
answer..
To the voter, whether 27 or 39 numbers
don't really matter. He is aware that BJP is the single largest Party as Congress
comes a very distant second. Barring AIADMK, the rest are all pygmies in NDA every
which way. In comparison, many of INDIA’s constituent Parties combine are not
write-offs.
Alas, both alliances story is
nothing but “you scratch my back and I yours”, but both need to watch out for
the possibility of mutual back-stabbing in the name of mutual back-scratching
being very real.
Democratic governance is becoming
more complex by the day. Both NDA and INDIA beyond seat sharing and ego
massaging have to strike the right balance between being popular and taking
care of popular interest with a long term vision. Conclaves are fine but a lot of thinking and
labour will be required to be put in. As the business of shaping India nee Bharat is not a matter of arithmetic
but of politics. Who will come up trumps? ----- INFA
(Copyright,
India News & Feature Alliance)
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