Political Diary

New Delhi, 27 June 2023

Baby Steps?

DISUNITY IN UNITY

By Poonam I Kaushish 

Unity in disunity or disunity in unity? Flummoxed? Certainly, as Opposition fault lines vexed unity efforts as 15-odd disparate Opposition Parties bandied together in Patna to play footsie, build an idealogical counter, stitch a seat-sharing formula and reconcile competing ambitions with a single aim: Oust BJP in 2024. With Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar cutting a striking figure as he played host, mediator and fulcrum.

But even as they projected bonhomie, bonding is easier said than done in a polity that is for more splintered, has sharply defined regional areas and consequently many more turf wars.

Did the meet iron out the creases? No. APP Chief refused to be part of the photo-op as the Congress did not back his Party in the Rajya Sabha over the Centre’s controversial ordinance aimed at clipping the State Government’s hold over its bureaucracy. Understandable, as both Parties are direct competitors in Delhi and Punjab with AAP trying to gain a foothold in Congress-ruled Rajasthan which goes to polls later this year.

The Congress, for long on the downswing seems to be infused with new energy post Rahul’s Bharat Jodo Yatra and Himachal-Karnataka victory which could pose problems for Parties that are claiming Congress space or locked in combat with it in States. With it being the only Party with multi-State footprints it will have to make tough choices on what it is willing to sacrifice.

Already, even as Rahul contended it had an open mind and is flexible, he questioned AAP by stating an ordinance could not be a pre-condition for the alliance to fight BJP. “During Parliament session Opposition Parties meet to chalk out a joint strategy. Why should there be a different mechanism for this Ordinance?”

Recall, during Parliament’s Budget session differences within Opposition ranks broke out on the Adani-Hindenburg report issue. Pawar and TMC’s Mamata were on the same page and distanced themselves from Congress-led agitation in Parliament for a JPC. “I think bread and butter issues like unemployment, price rise and farmers’ issues are more important,” said Pawar. 

It is not just AAP, Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi too sent a message to Congress by asserting, “We hope all Parties which wish to defeat BJP will support SP with a big heart.” It’s another matter he had sought to be equidistant from both BJP and Congress in the past as they were two peas in a pod .

Moreover, it remains to be seen how Mamata’s TMC and Chandrashekhar Rao’s BRS will share a common platform with Congress as they are bitter rivals at the State level. DMK’s Stalin suggested there should be a different formula for different States. Namely, State-wise alliances under leadership of a Party strong there, which got RJD’s Lalu’s approval.

Certainly, this is not the first time Opposition Parties are attempting a joint platform to take on BJP. In the seventies it was the locus of efforts to form a united front to take on the Congress, now the shoe is on the other foot.

However it is not going to be a cakewalk as BJP has not only decisively won two terms at the Centre and posted several electoral success in States but also Modi towers over all others with a larger-than-life persona alongside his Government with a many-layered appeal of policies and schemes for bettering the aam aadmi’s life. 

Missing in action where the now-not-to-be-seen Mayawati’s BSP, Patnaik’s BJD, Jagan Reddy’s YSRCP, the last two pack a punch in their respective States and Parliament. Without roping them in, the going could be hard for the Opposition. A motley grouping without a coherent alternative plan will not have a realistic chance in the election.

Importantly, the prickly challenges of jointness: seat-sharing, identifying a common leader and common minimum programme was left for the next meeting in Shimla, notwithstanding all concurring with having a joint candidate against the BJP. Will they make common cause only on common specters like central misuse of CBI-ED against political opponents or will they say something on national issues like continuing Manipur crisis?

It remains to be seen how the Opposition deals with the idealogical battle. To dent BJP in 224 seats where it won will need a strong narrative which is coherent, pragmatic and popular. Rivals are finding it difficult to find common ideological grounds to oppose Hindutva or adopt a softer version of it. An example: In UP 2019 when both SP-BSP bandied in an unprecedented alliance which came undone thanks to grassroots contradictions in their core demographic bases is instructive.

Till date Parties have tinkered with welfare schemes, caste census, upliftment of marginalized communities, economic distress etc but have yet to zero in on a winning narrative which is crucial. Further, in at least 124 seats of BJP’s 303 are from States where Parties are often in contest with each other and where Opposition unity will be difficult to achieve, In West Bengal TMC is in contest with not only BJP but also Congress and Left. Or UP where it’s a four-Party BJP, Congress, SP and BSP contest.

It is these regions that internal contradictions in Opposition camp will have to be deftly managed. How will Left and Congress manage an arrangement nationally while being the principal contenders for power in Kerala and Bengal. Congress State Chief was arrested by police in cheating case even as Left-Congress broke bread in Patna.

How much of the grand alliance will be a pre-poll act and how much will it be post-election configuration? The modalities of a joint fight will prove whether the bubble of Opposition unity will pass the stress test or burst? As our electoral history shows personal ambition can often overwhelm ideological affinity and other loyalties.

Arguably, it will end up meaning little if there is no change in the political fortunes of 160-odd seats where BJP and Congress are in direct contest and where the former beat the latter decisively. Unless Congress wrests MP and retains Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, BJP would have an edge in 2024.

It is not only Opposition but BJP too has to prove its enduring strength at voting booths. In 2019 it won 224 seats with an over 50% vote share up from 136 in 2014. Only in 48 constituencies was the combined vote share of Opposition candidates higher than BJP nominee. Plainly, mere arithmetic will not work, hence Opposition will have to find a way to wean large numbers of voters away from BJP as proven by Congress in Karnataka. Replicating this in BJP’s garh Hindu heartland would be tough.

The Opposition will have to find the language and repertoire that can match BJP’s dexterity, multi-vocality, poll fighting mean machine and resources with which it shores up its communication dominance and perceived imagery. Modi has already thrown down the gauntlet by refreshing Hindutva, projecting and redefining nationalism and the country’s self respect. The big question: Who will take up cudgels against the BJP beyond rally slogans?  

Clearly, in this minefield of contradictions where strategies are crafted with electoral dividends in mind forging a path ahead for the Opposition will require foresight, nimbleness and flexibility. So far the Opposition has taken baby steps, presenting a disunited front amidst unity bonhomie. Nothing more. ----- INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)