REWIND
New Delhi, 15 June 2023
OPPOSITION UNITY:
FRESH MOVES
By Inder Jit
(Released on My 6,
1980)
Latest developments in
the north-east region continue to cause grave anxiety. The stalemate in Assam
was bad enough. Matters have now been made worse by the violent happenings in
Manipur. Thinking in New Delhi among the ruling circles and the Opposition is,
however, dominated mainly by the forthcoming Assembly poll. Outwardly, Mrs
Gandhi looks like having won another round already. The Opposition has so far
failed to come together. Nevertheless, it has not yet thrown in the sponge.
Frantic, even desperate, efforts are still on to get the Opposition to come to
some understanding to stop Mrs Gandhi and, more pertinently, Mr Sanjay Gandhi
from acquiring absolute power via the States. No, it is not too late yet for
the Opposition to forge a common front and prevent a split in its votes to Mrs
Gandhi’s advantage. The last date for the withdrawal of nominations is no doubt
over. But the Opposition has time still to unite for the common cause.
Candidates can retire on the basis of mutual understanding any day prior to the
poll.
Candidly, it should not have been impossible for
the Opposition to forge some accord. All its top leaders are agreed on the
analysis of the national scene, as reflected in the two-day meet of over a
hundred Opposition leaders in their individual capacity in Bombay recently.
India’s democratic system, according to a paper circulated as the basis for the
dialogue, had survived thanks to the intervention of the people. Democratic
stirring in the system had since “deepened and extended”. At the same time,
however, “the trend to impose a populist, dynastic regime is gathering
momentum.” There were “ominous whispers about the inadequacy of the present
Parliamentary framework" and the traditions of the Indian national
movement for liberation were "sought to be drastically altered to suit the
dynastic interests." Mr Chandra Shekhar seemed to air the general
feeling of those present as he reportedly said: “Mafia rule is set to destroy
the democratic institutions of our country. The Opposition parties today face a
grim challenge.”
The Bombay conclave, convened essentially to forge
a credible national alternative to the Congress (I), did not limit itself
merely to brave words and to a timely declaration. (The declaration, among
other things, called upon the Opposition parties to meet the political
challenge posed by the Assembly poll by entering into adjustment of
seats wherever possible locally and to avoid any mutual recrimination so as to
give an effective fight.) Top Janata, Lok Dal and Congress (U) leaders, who
attended the meet, followed up the get-together energetically. Discussions for
mutual adjustments were initiated with the Bharatiya Janata Party also. The
latter’s response was warm and positive. Alas, however, no acceptable formula
could be hammered out. Some wanted tickets distributed on the basis of the 1977
poll and others on that of 1980. Maximum difficulty was, however, created on
the question of tickets for seats won by the Congress (1) and which among the parties
could be expected to bag them. Not unexpectedly, each side put up exaggerated
claims.
At one stage, Mr Karpoori Thakur in Bihar looked
like suggesting a practical solution to their mutual difficulties. He proposed
that differences on seats might be referred to an agreed person for arbitration
or, alternatively, lots might be drawn to settle the controversy. But the
proposal fell by the wayside in view of an impasse reached over the question of
mutual adjustments in Uttar Pradesh, which continues to be the single largest
bone of contention. The Congress (U), the Janata Party and, most important, the
Bharatiya Janata Party appear willing to concede without any hesitation that Mr
Charan Singh and his Lok Dal are “truly strong” in the State and in an
undoubted position to give a tough fight to Mrs. Gandhi, as proved by the Lok Sabha
poll. But they have run in to “a dead
end” in view of the “inflexible” stand taken by Mr Charan Singh. The Lok Dal Leader
reportedly insisted on taking 400 of the 425 seats for his party. According to
him, no other Opposition party counts in the State excepting the Bhartiya Janata
Party and that some two seats each for the Janata and the Congress (U) should
be adequate.
Most Opposition leaders are today wiser by bitter
experience. Time was when almost all of them had an exaggerated notion of their
personal importance and mass appeal. Many thought of themselves essentially as
subedars of feudal days, ever eager to assert their supremacy within their
realms and demand their pound of flesh. But today few talk or think in those
terms. Charan Singh is said to have changed. Currently, the problem in his case
appears to have been caused by personal pique and anger against an alleged
conspiracy by some “upper castes” in the Opposition to “outmanoeuvre and cut
him down to size” with the help of Mr Raj Narain. He is, therefore, said to be
eager now to prove that he is a leader to reckon with and can on his own win a
clear majority in UP. The Congress (I), it may be recalled, got 35.6 per cent
votes in the Lok Sabha poll, the Lok Dal 29.6 per cent and the Janata, 22.8 per
cent. Mr Charan Singh feels that he will get at least 5 per cent of the Janata
share in view of the split in the party. This should give him a backing of about
35 per cent and over 240 seats.
Considerable difficulty has also been caused in
forging adjustments on one other score: the crisis of credibility. More and
more Opposition leaders now realise that only half the battle will be won even
if they succeed in putting up agreed Opposition candidates against Congress (I)
nominees. The voters would like to get answers to some basic questions before
they can be expected to support the Opposition candidates: After the poll,
what? Who would form theGovernment? Would such a Government work and be stable?
What would be the assurance that it would not repeat in the States the sad
experience of the Janata at the Centre and give the people discredited SVD
regimes as in 1967? As Mr N.G. Goray told the Bombay conclave: “We have to
first establish our credibility.”In fact, almost the entire rank and file of
the Bharatiya Janata Party is reportedly opposed to any truck with the other
Opposition parties on the ground of credibility. “Do we want to win thepeople’s
confidence or do we not?” they ask.
An interesting double-deck formula has now been
mooted by some Opposition leaders and independent democrats to overcome the
hurdle created by the credibility gap. The Opposition parties are being urged
to seek mutual adjustments in terms of the States which are going to the polls
instead of a mere adjustment of the seats which raises more questions than it
answers. Specifically, it is proposed that the Opposition should agree to
divide the States among themselves and the strongest party in each State put up
candidates and proceed on the basis that it would form the Government. Accordingly,
Lok Dal should be helped to form the Government in Uttar Pradesh and Orissa,
the BJP in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the Janata Party in Gujarat and the
Congress (U) inMaharashtra.Opinion is still divided on who should form the Government
in Bihar. The Lok Dal’s claim of pre-eminence in the State is questioned by
both the Congress (U) and the Janata. Punjab and Tamil Nadu do not yet figure
in these moves as none of the four opposition parties enjoys a decisive
position. This formula expectedly raises a basic question. But about the three
parties who accept the supremacy of the fourth in a Stateand agree to back it
for forming the Government? Are they to voluntarily liquidate themselves? An
answer is provided by the second part of the formula. It is proposed that the
party which is expected to form the Government in a State should graciously
agree to give adequate representation to the other three parties. (In U.P., for
instance, the Lok Dal would agree to give to the BJP, Janata and Congress (U)
from 75 to a hundred seats). Further, the party forming the Government would be
expected to emulate Mr Mugabe, free Zimbabwe’s Prime Minister, and make one
other gesture to the smaller Opposition parties: give them token but
prestigious representation in the Ministry. In a remarkable stroke of
statesmanship, Mr Mugabe, it needs to be recalled, invited the other parties to
join his Government even when he was in a position to form a single party
Government on his own.
Privately, top leaders of all the four parties have
responded favourably to the formula. But some major hurdles will still remain
to be crossed. The Lok Dal would, for instance, have to find some justification
for joining hands with the BJP whom it considers an “untouchable” because of
its RSS connexion. The BJP, for its part, would have to make a major sacrifice
in U.P. where it had about a hundred MLAs in the dissolved House. The Janata
would have to reconcile itself to shaking hands with the Lok Dal which it
denounces as a party of “betrayers”. The Congress (U) appears to be taking a
pragmatic view and its President, Mr Devaraj Urs, is inclined to play the role
of a catalyst and put up an effective fight against Mrs Gandhi. To him and to
most otherOpposition leaders, the battle is principally against growing
authoritarianism which they regard a “much greater evil than either casteism or
communalism.” The odds against unity are clearly heavy. The coming fortnight
will show whether the Opposition leaders can rise to the challenge as men of
courage and vision. –INFA
(Copyright,
Indi News & Feature Alliance)
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