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Round The World
New Delhi, 3 March
2023
German Chancellor’s Visit
QUEST FOR MULTILATERALISM
By Dr D.K. Giri
(Prof. International Relations,
JIMMC)
The German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was in India last
weekend, 25 and 26 February. It was his maiden visit after he helmed
the German leadership in December 2021. Two developments would have influenced
his agenda in India; one, the ongoing Ukrainian war, which is causing deep
concern for Europe, and of course, the rest of the world, second, the G-20
Summit taking place in India later this year. Therefore, Scholz’s agenda
consisted of defence and security, in the wake of the war, and economic
cooperation, green technology and India-Pacific strategy, which may bear upon
the negotiations and transactions around the G-20 events.
Commensurating with the objectives of the visit, German
Chancellor was accompanied by a business delegation comprising twelve major
companies and from medium-and small sector. His visit was also the continuation
of the biennial Inter-Governmental Consultation (IGC) that commenced since
2011. The objective was also to follow on the discussion in the sixth IGC that
was held in Berlin.
The visit was significant for another reason. In the wake
of the war, Germany is redrawing its foreign policy, namely the defence and
security policy. The soundings are that Germany is seeking to emerge as an
independent global player in a multilateral world. While consolidating its
pre-eminent position in 27-country European Union, it is reaching out to other
strategic partners across the world. India could be one of them. Bilaterally,
Germany is the biggest European investor, ninth largest in the world, for
India. It is also one among the top ten global partners of India.
Giving clear indication of Germany’s leadership in Europe,
the Chancellor promised India that he would advance the trade talks between
India and the European Union. Deepening the partnership, the Chancellor offered
to build six submarines in India to help New Delhi modernise its maritime
forces. He also offered to create a new system to facilitate the migration of
Indian professionals into Germany. He extended a warm welcome to Indians to come
to Germany along with their families and work there. The new system, he
indicated, would be based on points like the Canadian professional immigration policy,
for professionals.
The security imperative in the visit was evident in the
press statement of German Ambassador to India, Philipp Ackerman, on the eve of
the visit, “the Chancellor will talk geopolitics with Prime Minister Narendra
Modi. You will see Russia and Ukraine very high on the agenda”. He explained at
the press briefing that, “India buying oil from Russia is not of our business.
Basically, that is something that the Indian government decides. What we would
like to see, of course, is an Indian engagement at some stage.” This obvious
German concern should not have been lost on Indian leadership. German interests
and economy are badly affected by the war, placing heavy burden on the state’s
exchequer; what to speak of the rising costs of fuel and electricity which has
quite an uncomfortable consequence for German way of life.
From Indian point of view, the war is turning out to be a
major concern for India’s security. As the war pushes Russia closer to China,
New Delhi should be wary because of China’s belligerent postures on the
borders. There is also a rethink in European Union as well as in US on
diverting the trade from China. If that be so, a big market like India could be
the only and obvious alternative to China. This is where the Indian and German
interests should converge. But do they?
India, a big country in Asia, and Germany a strong economy
in the West with similar approaches to democracy, human rights and a rule-based
international order should come really close. The onus lies more on Germany as
a bigger economy. However, German’s attitude to India is contingent upon
Berlin’s equation with Beijing. Also, it hinges on Germany’s conception of
multilateralism, as referred above.
To surprise of many, German Chancellor’s dashed to Beijing
after Xi Jinping was re-appointed as the head of CCP in its 20th
Party Congress. The visit was explained away as Germany’s compulsion of
protecting their heavy trade and investment in China, an understandable
national interest and priority. However, a systematic assessment of China is
found in SPD position paper on New Foreign and Security Policy Agenda. Although
Scholz heads a coalition government, he belongs to SPD, the largest partner in
the coalition and the oldest democratic party of Germany.
The policy document states that, since China, failed to
condemn the Russian attack on Ukraine, it is obvious that China under Xi
Jinping is a global power that intends to shape world politics in its own
interests. The document maintains that China is “making an increasingly
self-confident and sometimes aggressive appearance, for example by repeatedly
emphasising its hegemonic claims to countries in its immediate vicinity.” Germany
has so far treated China as a ‘partner-competitor-systemic rival’, a
characterisation of the bilateralism done by the European Commission. Germany
contends that decoupling from China is not advisable as Beijing has become ‘an
indispensable player’ in international politics in dealing with several global
challenges.
At the same time, Germany is pushing their own companies
and the European ones to diversify their value chains and sales market. They
must find an alternative supplier and minimise their economic dependence on
China. Germany also is looking out for partners in the world and in the
India-Pacific region where India’s stakes lie. Germany will like to reach out
to those countries including India which feel threatened by China. The document
says, “We must take these concerns and fears seriously and take them into
account in our policy towards China.” This is where India should come in.
The other variable in India-German relationship is the
latter’s attitude towards NATO. Although there was a rupture in US-European
ties on NATO during Donald Trump tenure, under the Biden regime, it was
reaffirmed that USA and NATO still serve as the guarantors of European security.
So, Scholz administration will like to strengthen EU’s military capabilities
while relying on NATO. New Delhi should be sensitive to US and Europe
partnership in security while laying out its own security agenda.
Finally, on multilateralism, Germany is unwilling to see
the world divided into two antagonistic blocks. It believes that addressing global
challenges requires multilateral efforts; they cannot be met by a divided world.
Germany recognises the legitimate claim of countries in Global South to
participate in shaping a just international order. European Union itself is a
multilateral body. That is why Germany and European countries put their faith
in multilateral institutions for global peace, prosperity and security. India
holds a similar position in international politics. So conceptually, Germany
and India should work in tandem to promote multilateralism.
I have maintained that a united world, manifested in
genuine multilateralism, notwithstanding the panoply of international
institutions, is a utopia. History does not support that aspiration. A balance
of power is more realistic. However, developments involving human beings are
quite complex creating new realities from time to time. Hence, if Germany and
India want multilateralism, so be it. More power to them. ---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature
Alliance)
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