Round The World

New Delhi, 11 November 2022

EAM In Russia

RESTATING STRATEGIC AUTONOMY!

By Dr D.K. Giri

(Prof. International Relations, JIMMC)

External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar is in Moscow visiting his counterparts– the Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Deputy Sergei Ryabkov. This is EAM’s first visit to Moscow after the dreadful war in Ukraine started nine months ago. The speculation in national and international media was that the EAM may try to broker a ceasefire between the two warring countries. While the visit is certainly the reiteration of India’s strategic autonomy in her international politics, it is a matter of reading of the deliberations, if EAM will openly or discretely nudge Russia to end the war.

On the war, Jaishankar repeated India’s stand in international forums that both sides, “should turn to dialogue and diplomacy instead of war as an instrument”. However, saying so in Moscow is quite significant. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had said it before to the Russian President Vladimir Putin that “it is no time for war”. EAM is echoing Modi’s chiding of Russia that they should end the war and negotiate. He reminded this time to his Russian counterpart of the tragic consequences of the war. He said, “Global South is feeling the pain acutely caused by this war, especially after two years of the pandemic”.

As per the diplomatic protocols, and India’s long-standing relations with Russia, Lavrov reciprocated EAM’s sentiments. He appreciated India’s position on the Ukraine situation, briefed EAM on the special military operations to accomplish the goals set by his President Putin. We do not know what the goals are. There were other usual bilateral discussions on trade and technical cooperation etc.

Arguably, the war is unlikely to end soon. Much will depend upon the western powers, especially America supporting Ukraine. The cost of the war is too heavy. It is estimated that some 3 billion USD is needed every month by Ukraine to hold off Russia. European countries are getting tired, their economies hit by lack of gas, food grains, fertilizers etc. At the time of writing, there are elections in America for the Congress which are considered to be the mid-term elections. The outcome of the elections will somewhat influence American policy towards Ukraine.

The war will end only when Russia and the western allies supporting Ukraine agree to call it a day; when they realise, which they are beginning to, that it is not helping either of them. Americans are wary of not being able to bleed Russia white, the sanctions they imposed have not bitten hard, and the retaliation by Ukraine is not strong enough to break the back of Russian military.

At the same time, Russians have found to their surprise that they could not cow down Ukrainians who have dragged the war for nine months and more.  However, there are signs of despair and defeatism on all sides, as it happens in a prolonged war. President Zelenskyy has come down from his earlier position that they will not negotiate ever with Putin, the ‘war criminal’. He is now putting conditions for dialogue; Russia should withdraw from all occupied areas including perhaps Crimea; Russians must pay reparations etc. Although fatigue and frustration are setting in, who will take the first step? Who would broker an agreement?

The world is desperately devoid of such international personalities who could bring the parties to the table. The United Nations falls far short of embracing such peace-building tasks. It has the institutions and legal protocols in place. But it has failed to locate personalities in countries, nor produce mechanism to build peace. It was expected that India, with its history and culture, and the present position of neutrality could perhaps do it.

Revisiting India’s position on Ukraine, New Delhi has so far seen to be pro-Russia. Her diplomatic utterances and abstentions in UN were seemingly in Russian support. Some of us were critical of such positions by maintaining that India should stand for territorial integrity, the UN charter and the established international laws. But looking at the postures and practices of other fairly strong countries that put primacy on their economic interests, one is compelled to revise the opinion on our own government’s stand. I have Germany in mind.

Germany is the strongest economy in Europe, by far the main driver of the European Union. It is one of the first countries to alert the democratic world about the systematic threat posed by China. Yet, in order to protect its industries and economy, the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visits China immediately after Xi Jinping was reconfirmed by the Community Party Congress as the supreme leader. Germany protests the violation of human rights in China but openly does business as usual.

I have maintained that the mismatch between European Union’s political values and economic interest was too evident. That is why perhaps European Union could not emerge as the alternative centre for international political power. Germany has reinforced that perception.

That said, India has not been able to decouple its economy from China despite ongoing border skirmishes. India and Germany are perhaps creating a new line of thinking in world politics. The German Chancellor is hinting at Germany’s strategic autonomy. Germany has long sought to stay away from American influence and patronage. Berlin did not want to be caught in the superpower rivalry, the binary division of the world, earlier between USA and USSR, now USA and China backed by their respective allies. Scholz is speaking about multi-polarity.

Can we blame India for doing the similar between USA and Russia? India’s partnership with the former is growing, whereas the latter has been a time-tested, long-standing friend. Going by the past experience of world power equations, we were wary about the feasibility of multi-polarity, the strategic autonomy in an inter-dependent world. We have friends, and we have adversaries. That is the reality of life. But if Germany and India and other like-minded countries can work towards a multi-polar world, retaining and respecting the autonomies of the countries, this is a commendable and a welcome development. So be it.  ---INFA

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