Round The World

New Delhi, 27 May 2022

Modi In Quad

UNSCATHED DESPITE UKRAINE

By Dr. D.K. Giri

(Prof. International Relations, JIMMC)

Prime Minister Narendra Modi was in Tokyo to attend the Quad meeting. He also met other three Quad leaders bilaterally- Joseph Biden of America, Anthony Albanese of Australia and Fumio Kishida of Japan. It was assumed that Modi may not be received so warmly as before for his divergent view from other three partners on Russia and Ukraine war. But, from the reports in the press, Modi came out unscathed. On the contrary, Modi’s deliberations in the Quad and bilaterally,seem to have enhanced India’s standing vis-à-vis the Quad partners.

American President Joe Biden said to Prime Minister Modi that, “he is committed to making America’s partnership with India among the closest on earth”. He added that there is so much that the two countries can and will do together. The Australian Prime Minister, swore-in 48 hours before he met Prime Minister Modi, said,“Australia-India ties have never been closer”. The Japanese Prime Minister did the icing on the cake as he acknowledged India’s stand on the war between Russia and Ukraine. In response to the questions from media about India’s stand on Russia and its impact on relevance of Quad, he said, “in international situation, each country has its own historical development and geographical situation. Even amongst like-minded, positions may not agree fully”.

From the above accounts which are certainly not fully diplomatic hyperboles, it appears that Modi scored well for India in consolidating the bilateralism with Quad partners, and retaining their warmth and confidence. To be sure, in such summits, the bilateral meetings on the fringe are the real tangible events. Scanning the outcome of the bilateral meetings, look at the common ground created as well as reiterated with the United States. Prime Minister Modi commented that the strategic relations between India and US, is truly a “partnership of trust” and Quad is a “force for good” for global peace and stability. American President reciprocated the feelings with complete commitment to the partnership.

On Australia, both leaders reviewed the multi-faceted cooperation under the comprehensive strategic partnership, including in trade and investment, defence manufacturing, renewable energy, science and technology, agriculture research, sports and people-to-ties. With Japan, India has a range of trade and investment relationship based on shared concerns, trust and goodwill. In keeping with spirit of friendship with Japan, Prime Minister Modi met three former Prime Ministers, corporate leaders and the Indian Diaspora. It is noteworthythat a former Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has constituted a ‘Ganesh group of MPs in Japanese Parliament’. While deeply appreciating this, Prime Minister Modi invited the Ganesh group of MPs to festivities around Ganeshotsav this year.

From business perspective, Modi met the Japanese business leaders – Masayoshi Son, the founder of Soft Bank Corporation, Osamu Suzuki, senior advisor of Suzuki Motors, Tadashi Yanai, CEO of Fast Retailing, and NEC Corporation Chairman, Nobuhiro Endo. The meetings would have encouraged these companies to initiate and consolidate investment in India.

In Quad, as usual, several decisions were taken, a new project initiated, resolutions made on international affairs. To start with, the important joint-statement, in the wake of Russia-Ukraine war, the Quad said, “as Russia’s invasion on Ukraine is shaking the fundamental principles of the international order… (we) confirm that unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force, will never be tolerated anywhere, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region”.  The reference to Indo-Pacific is aimed at sending a message to China in view of its threat of taking over Taiwan by force.

Along with the forgoing reference to Russian war, Quad declared that, they would champion adherence to international law as reflected in the UN Convention in East and South China seas. The Quad leaders said in the joint-statement, “we strongly oppose any coercive, provocative or unilateral actions that seek to change status quo and increase tensions. As expected, Quad unequivocally condemned terrorism and violent extremism. What is important to note is the reference to the terrorist attacks in India – 26/11 Mumbai and 2016 Pathankot attacks perpetrated by terror groups based in Pakistan.

The Quad announced the formation of the Indo-Pacific partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA) which will track the maritime activities in partners’ waters quicker and wider. It will also track ‘dark shipping’ and other tactical level activities such as rendezvous at sea, protect fisheries, vital to many Indo-Pacific economy. On development, Quad, pledged to strengthen global health architecture in getting ahead of the virus which caused havoc in the world. On 21 March, last year, the Quad countries had announced ‘the Quad vaccine partnership’ in pursuance to that, the Quad leaders announced, “we commit to adapt our respective approaches to get ahead of the virus by focussing on preparing for new variants, making vaccines, tests, treatments, and other medical products for those at higher risk.”

Recognise the urgent need to tackle climate change, Quad leaders launched, “Quad Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Package (Q-CHAMP)”. This initiative was in the offing from the first in-person Quad summit. In this meeting, while launching the mechanism for addressing climate change, the Quad leaders said they will, both individually and collectively strengthen their cooperation to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change, in line with the suggestions made by IPCC - Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change, Paris Agreement, and COP26.

On infrastructure, Quad leaders agreed to deepen their cooperation. After Covid crippled the world economies, including in the Indo-Pacific region, the Quad leaders resolved to drive productivity and prosperity in the region. The leaders agreed to bring their respective skills and experiences to the table to leverage infrastructure delivery to the region. To secure this, Quad leaders agreed to extend around USD$50 billion for the Indo-Pacific over the next five years.  In parallel, the US launched the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) to support the economic development in the region. IPEF comprises 13 countries from the region. India was invited into this group to which Modi promptly agreed. This will perhaps make-up for the withdrawal from RCEP- the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.

The Quad leaders took serious note of Chinese and Russian jets flying over Japanese waters as the Quad summit was in progress. Likewise, the four leaders condemned North Korea’s destabilising ballistic missile launches and called on the international community to abide by the United Nations Security Council’s resolution.

From the above account, it appears that Quad and bilateral meetings went well for India. But Ukraine is still the elephant in the room. Until the war in Ukraine ends, world politics and partnerships will not be steady. Biden strongly said, “Putin is trying to extinguish culture. This is more than just a European issue, it is a global issue. Food crisis may worsen as Russia blocks Ukraine from exporting its grains”. Mark this, Biden said, “as long as Russia continues the war, US will work with its partners.”

Biden’s statement is fraught with uncertainties, possibilities and scope for disruption. India has to choose any of these outcomes and eventuality, arising out of the war. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)