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Round
The World
New Delhi, 6 May 2022
Modi In Europe
TAKEAWAYS FOR INDIA
By Dr. D.K. Giri
(Prof International
Relations, JIMMC)
Prime Minister Narendra Modi dashed off to
three countries in Europe from 2-4 May 2022. He went to Germany, Denmark and
for a stopover in Paris on the way back home. This is his first visit to Europe
since the war in Ukraine last month which has engaged almost the entire
international leadership on its repercussions on world politics. The point to
note is the divergence of reactions to the war: Europe calling Russia out as
the aggressor and India remaining neutral. Modi has had to wade through this
heavy diplomatic division with Europe.
To recall a slice of history, India has taken
a critical posture towards Europe, mainly the construction of European Union. Prime
Minister Nehru in 1960s, as the European Union was being shaped up, derided its
prospect by calling it a ‘capitalist club’. He may have detected a colonial
bent in building of European Economic Community in 1957 under the Treaty of
Rome as, at the same time, Nehru along with Tito Nasser was crafting the Non-Aligned
Movement (NAM). What happened to NAM and the EEC could be evaluated by
contemporary political historians. Suffice to say that NAM disappeared in the
sands of history, whereas EEC emerged as a big economic block, transforming
into a political entity called European Union.
The misreading of growth of EU in its
formative stage by Nehru reflected a serious mismatch between India’s economy
and foreign policy. Since the foreign policy was security driven, the focus of
our bilateral relations was on Pakistan and Russia. Pakistan has been the
adversary and Russia an ally for defence supplies. Europe was overlooked
although about 60 per cent of our trade deficit was accounted for by EU. India’s
economy suffered from lack of investment, technology and market. Curiously, the
same trend continues even today as is seen in India’s stand on Ukrainian war.
New Delhi is not able to name Russia.
Although Modi has been critical of fault
lines in India’s foreign policy created by Nehru, he has not been able to
correct these. This has been experienced in New Delhi’s relations with Beijing,
with Moscow and in unresolved tensions with Islamabad. Even under globalisation
when growth in economy became a measure of country’s strength, India lagged
behind despite its demographic dividend and the size of the market. Will it
change now, in regard to Europe, as Modi has acknowledged the European
countries as “India’s important partners in her quest for peace and prosperity?”
On the first leg of the tour, Modi landed in
Germany to co-chair the 6th India-Germany Inter-Governmental
Consultation (IGC), along with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, from the
Progressive Social Democratic Party. Notably, IGC is a unique biennial format
which India conducts only with Germany. India and Germany have had a long
historic relation. India was one among a few countries to extend diplomatic
recognition to Federal Republic of Germany after the Second World War. Berlin
and New Delhi have been strategic partners since 2000. Germany became
economical strong and the leader of the EU attracting several economic and
trade partners, including India. Currently, Germany holds the G-7 presidency.
Modi’s diplomacy will show if he gets India invited to the G-7 outreach summit
in June.
Modi and Scholz would have jointly thought
about dealing with Russia. Germany is trying to reduce its energy dependence on
Moscow. Likewise, New Delhi should strive innovatively to reduce its dependence
on Moscow for its defence supplies. Both countries in their respective ways
should try to extricate from Russian bear-hug. Russian gas pipelines were
coming through Ukraine to Germany carrying major energy supply. If Berlin could
forgo that supply due to its solidarity with NATO allies, New Delhi could do so
in the defence procurement.
The next stop for Modi was Copenhagen. He had
twin purposes in visiting Denmark – to consolidate bilateral relations with the
country and to attend the second India-Nordic summit in Copenhagen. On
bilateralism, Copenhagen and New Delhi have become green strategic partners
since September 2020. New Delhi could explore new elements of partnership with
resourceful Copenhagen in the field of skill development, shipping,
agro-technology, and mobility. These are the prospective areas indicated by
Indian Foreign Secretary Kwatra.
Modi will look up for four Nordic leaders –
Prime Ministers of Sweden, Norway, Finland and Iceland in addition to the host,
Prime Minister of Denmark Mette Frederiksen. In particular, Modi will nudge
these leaders for India-Nordic cooperation in Arctic. Significantly, Sweden and
Finland possible membership of NATO and a threat of strong retaliation with
nuclear bombs may figure in the deliberations with Modi.
There is also a brief stopover in Paris for
Modi to congratulate President Emmanuel Macron, who won a hard and bitterly fought
presidential elections on 25th of April. Modi and Macron have been
active around the Russia-Ukraine war, Paris and New Delhi have a strategic
partnership. Both the leaders might explore the next phase of this important
partnership. France is holding the EU presidency this year, hence Macron’s role
in European politics, including Ukraine will be closely watched.
France is being regarded by observers as new
Russia for India for its continued and solid support in international arena. On
trade and economy, both the countries share a close relationship – in defence
and security cooperation, robust economic partnership, space cooperation and
civil and nuclear cooperation. The new areas for cooperation are being
explored. What is important to watch is their exchange of notes on the war and
if they could reach a point of convergence.
Prime Minister Modi’s three-day visit to
Europe, to three countries mentioned above was hectic and packed. He had 25
engagements with eight world leaders, 50 business honchos and 1600 strong
Indian Diaspora in Germany which included students, research scholars,
professionals and businessmen. Modi, as usual, used the opportunity to have a
dig at his opponents back home and exulted in India’s economic achievements. He
said, “there were 200-400 start-ups in 2014, now India hosts 68000 start-ups
and dozens of unicorns…. Some of whom have already become deca-corns with
10-billion dollars valuation”.
Prime Minister’s emphatic presentation of
India as a secure and grown-up economy was perhaps aimed at enticing the Indian
Diaspora to globalise ‘Indian story’. He was also wanting to attract European
business into Indian market. He even mentioned Article 370 to boost up the
morale of Indian Diaspora on India’s unity, strength and integrity. This is
alright for psychological and cultural diplomacy with the Diaspora, which feels
usually nostalgic.
In sum, Modi’s visit in these tumultuous
times in Europe will bring rich political and economic dividends for India if
he managed to correct the perception that India is beholden to Russia and
therefore could not take a bold stand even when international political norms
are violated. Many observers and supporters of South Block and Prime Minister
Modi will endorse India’s position on Ukraine as pragmatic and prudent. Will
Europe, which professes openly democracy, human rights and freedom in relation
to individuals or countries will be convinced by such logic. Prime Minister Modi’s
visit should a prelude to a radical shift in India’s foreign policy. Will it? ---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
New Delhi
4 May 2022
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