Round The World
New Delhi, 18 March
2022
Indian
Missile In Pakistan
MUCH ADO
ABOUT NOTHING!
By Dr D.K
Giri
(Prof. International
Politics, JIMMC)
On 10th March, theDirector
General of Inter-Service Intelligence public relations confirmed and alleged in
a press conference that a flying object launched from Sirsa, Haryana landed on
9th at Mian Channu, in the North-West of Multan.Apparently, it damaged some
civilian property and is under examination by Pakistani scientists. Pakistan,
as expected, summoned the Indian Chief of Mission in Islamabad and admonished
him voicing, ‘strong condemnation of this blatant violation of Pakistani
airspace.’India promptly admitted that a missile has indeed gone off accidentally
from Indian territory and deeply regretted the incident but the story does not
end here.
In the climate of
deep mistrust and suspicion prevailing between the twocountries, a mountain is
made out of a mole hill. The machines and missiles are run by human beings and
possibility of error is endless. Major nuclear countries like Russia, Japan,
China, US, France -- all have experienced nuclear accidents, but leaders and
experts did not apportion motive.
In this case it is
not so. Beijing the ‘eternal’ critique of India has jumped into the fray
nudging Pakistan to demand a thoroughenquiry, usual devious tactic of fishing
in troubled waters. Beijing wants to sound important in the region, but its own
conduct at home and on the borders, it shares with neighbours leave a lot to
desire.
Worse, the social media
in both countries have spun outlandish and incredible theories on the incident.
As a sample, ‘India had deliberately fired the missile to test Pakistan’s
missile defence readiness’.The second one is even more far-fetched; that India
had fired the missile in order to scare Pakistan from doing anything silly in
the Kashmir borders.
The above speculation
was fuelled by Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s dash to Moscow immediately
after Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine. It is also a common sense that no
responsible country will risk firing a modern missile without a warhead to test
the enemy’s readiness and risk it falling into inimical hands.
It is pertinent to
look at the human error dimension in this sad incident.While it somewhat
questions Indian handling of strategic weapons and launching protocols, the
hard fact seen world over is that human errors are commonplace. To use a slice
of statistics, since 1950, there have been 32 recorded nuclear weapons
accidents --launching, firing, detonating, theft or loss. To date,six nuclear
weapons have been lost and never been recovered.
In 90s and of late,
Washington complained that China posed a direct threat to the United States
because, for several decades, it has systematically stolen the United States
nuclear weapons design information. In 1970s, the United States through CIA
reported that Uranium from its nuclear fuel-processing plant was stolen and
found in Israel.
However, the above
examples do not dilute or automatically defuse the tension between New Delhi
and Islamabad. Thanks to restrain exercised by Pakistan and the innocuous
nature of the missile, the incident did not lead to an escalation to a nuclear
level.
Interestingly, the
response time between United States and Russia for an ICBM launch is above 25
minutes; but in case of India Pakistan which are contiguous country, it is much
less. According to the reports, the Indian missile was in the air for above 7
minutes before it crashed near Multan, which is one of Pakistan’s nuclear
weapons sites. It could have easily prompted Pakistan to retaliate.
It is not clear
whether there is any forewarning between India and Pakistan on any test or drills
with ballistic or cruise missile under the prevailing agreement.At any rate,
both the countries have behaved commendably. Pakistan did not retaliate as
India instantly admitted the slip and regretted. This showed the maturity of
the leadership which should persist for the sake of strategic stability in the
sub-continent.
The missile story
would not be complete without referring to the United States. It has endorsed
India’s version on the missile and has supported New Delhi. The State
Department spokesperson Ned Price told reporters at his daily news conference
on 14th March, “We have no indication as you also heard from our Indian partner
that this incident was anything other than an accident.” He added, “We refer
you of course to the Indian Ministry of Defence for any follow up. They issued
a statement on March 9th to explain precisely what had happened. We don't have
a comment beyond that.”
A small incident can
trigger speculations and diplomatic scrambles. Such is the international
climate. The political climate has become worse after the invasion of Ukraine
by its big neighbour Russia. The international community is standing by; the
western powers are clandestinely supporting the victim with weapons and
sanctions against the invader. Is that adequate?
The matter of deep
concern is that war is being made a tool for promotion of national interest.
The countries in South Asia, explosive as it is, with unremitted enmity between
India and Pakistan. The missile incident should be put to bed without further
rancour.
China’s interference
is uncalled for. Their patronising suggestion that India and Pakistan should
sort things out, is not in the good taste. India and Pakistan are capable of
solving their tensions bilaterally. In fact, they had done so on the missile
episode until China popped in with the unwanted advice for a thorough probe.
Admittedly, the
India-Pakistan tensions have been escalated by the meddling of big powers in
the region. They had found an opportunity to trade in arms with both countries
plunging them into an unnecessary, unaffordable arms race. It is a challenge
for the ingenuity of the leaders in the region to build peace, security and
goodwill.
Pakistani Prime
Minister Imran Khan, a sportsman by training made good sounds as he took over.
He identified the common enemy in the region to be poverty. We wished he could continue
that spirit, but alas, the Pakistani army, which has a vested interest in
continuation of the conflict, tied his hands and like his predecessors he played
into their hands.
So obviously, there
are much larger issues than the accidental landing of the missile in Pak
territory. This incident should be buried sooner than later, and no further
bickering is in order on it. India has expressed regret, and should offer to
pay for the damages if needed. It is in interest of both New Delhi and
Islamabad to build normalcy between them, and handle the third countries with
great caution and care. More important, do not let the small issues become big
and bothersome. If Russia and Ukraine have common ancestry, India and Pakistan
were one people, one country, not so long ago. They must invoke the common past
to moderate the shared present. ---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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