Round
The World
New Delhi, 4 February 2022
Russia, Ukraine & West
INDIA’S DELICATE
BALANCING
By Dr. D.K.Giri
(Prof. International
Politics, JIMMC)
As Russia and Ukraine seem close to a war and
the western powers led by the United States warn Russiaagainst invasion of its
neighbour, New Delhi is caught diplomatically in a delicate position. It could
neither oppose Russia nor can it support the West. New Delhi fears losing
Russia, an old friend, who may openly form an axis with China and is wary of
offending the new friend America by not siding with it.
Before we discuss and asses India’s options,
her stakes with each side, it is in order that we understand Russia’s intentions
and America’s (West) concerns. Russia had attacked Ukraine in 2014 and annexed
Crimea, the Russian speaking territory of Ukraine. Since then, Ukraine has been
in cross hairs between Russia and the West. The United States wants to expand
NATO into the East, after it has secured military hegemony of the West. The US
is nudging Ukraine to join NATO, if that happens, NATO forces will be right at
the Russian borders.
Therefore, Russia would do anything in its
powers to prevent Ukraine from joining the NATO. In mid-December last year,
Russia demanded a guaranteefrom USA‘in writing’ that NATO would not expand
eastward, and Ukraine could never be a member of the military alliance. It goes
without saying that USA and its allies refused to budge and ruled out such
eventuality.
What is Russia’s
plan?Russian
intentions and plans could be drawn from its history in regard to Ukraine. The
founder President of USSR, Vladimir Lenin had said, “to lose Ukraine would be
to lose our head”. This has been the historical approach of Soviet rulers to
Ukraine, from Tsar to Putin. Also, the current President Vladimir Putin, like
the Chinese President Xi Jinping, wants to reclaim the Soviet empire, at least,
reunite the erstwhile members of the Soviet Union. Xi Jinpingobsesses with regaining
the old glory of the Chinese empire.
Putin had called the dismemberment of the Soviet
Union, “the greatest geo-political catastrophe of the last century”. On
Ukraine, Putin is even more sentimental as he considersRussians and Ukrainians
are people with a common political and spiritual history. He does not accept
Ukraine breaking away from Russia even though other 13 members of the Union too
went away. Incidentally, Ukraine is also the second largest economy and second
most-populous among the 14 erstwhile Republics attached with the Union.
However, the shared history between Russia
and Ukraine is indeed history. Ukraine had a major role in construction of the
Union and had equally an important part in its break-up. It was the Ukrainian
referendum of 1 December 1991, which was successfully held to leave the Union,
brought the curtains down on the Soviet Union, the superpower of the cold war
era.
At present, Ukraine is an independent
country, and has tremendous geo-political significance. It shares borders with
four NATO countries. It has a strong economy, has major ports in Black Sea, and
carries one of big Russian gas pipelines to Europe. Russia is a major supplier
of gas to Europe, which Russian leadership leverages as a bargaining tool with
Europe.
The bullying of Ukraine by Russia escalated
recently. Russia would not want to lose its influence over Ukraine for the
reasons cited above.Since the Pro-Russian President of Ukraine Viktor
Yanukovych was removed from office in 2014, Ukraine tilted towards the West. It
carried out joint exercises with NATO, in order to boost its defence
capabilities vis-à-vis Russia. The West also has made a promise that Ukraine
may join NATO in future.
Russian President Putin for the last 22 years
has been trying to arm-twist Ukraine into submission, and not to be seduced by
the West. He used various means to do so, failing which, Putin is threatening
military action to subdue Ukraine. The West is warning against any such action
that would take Ukraine away from their sphere of influence.
Where does India stand on this? Really, as
before, India,is in a precarious position right in the middle. New Delhi is
trying not to offend either party. It is speaking with a forked tongue. It has
neither voted for or against a motion to hold discussion in UN on Russia’s
military build-up at Ukraine borders. India abstained along with countries like
Gabon and Kenya. Admittedly, India has had a long military supply arrangement
with Moscow. New Delhi somewhat sees Russia as an ally even in India-China
face-off. There are a number of Indian students in Ukraine. At the same time,
India is increasingly being dependent on America and its allies for trade and
security including cornering China.
Speaking at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) meeting on
Ukraine, India’s Permanent Representative to the UN called for the immediate
de-escalation of the situation while taking into account the security interests
of all. He said, “India’s interest is in finding a solution that can provide
for immediate de-escalation of tensions taking into account the legitimate
security interests of all countries and aimed towards securing long term peace
and stability in the region and beyond,”
India, Kenya and Gabon abstained from a procedural vote on whether or
not Ukraine would be discussed. China and Russia voted against. The US which
initiated the meeting and nine other countries voted to hold the discussion.
India’s Permanent Representative also reiterated its support for a July
2020 ceasefire, the 2014 Minsk Agreement and the Normandy Process. The Normandy
process refers to discussions held between Russia, Ukraine, Germany, and
France, who have met since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea. The four countries
met in Paris on January 26 this year and are set to meet in Berlin in two
weeks. The Minsk Agreement following the ceasefire was meant to end the war
between Russia and Ukraine in the Donbas region of the latter. It was signed in
2014 by the Trilateral Contact Group comprising Ukraine, Russia and the
Organisation of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) represented by
Germany and France.
All in all, India is calling for “quiet and
constructive diplomacy” to de-escalate the tension between Russia and Ukraine,
and the West. Will that work? I have written consistently in this column that
India has to shed its balancing role and choose her corner. Or else, New Delhi
may fall between two stools. It is not so prudent or strategic to be seen with
just two other countries Gabon, and Kenya. India has to plan to join sooner
than later the Democratic World, as such occasions causing friction between the
West on one hand and autocracies like Russia, China and North Korea, will keep
popping up calling upon each country to take a stand. New Delhi cannot dither
for long, can it? ---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
New Delhi
2 February 2022
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