Round The World
New
Delhi, 10 December 2021
Putin Meets Modi
MILITARY-POLITICAL MISMATCH
By Dr D.K.Giri
(Prof. International Politics, JIMMC)
President
Vladimir Putin was in New Delhi for quarter of a day to attend the India-
Russia Annual summit. It was a short visit of 6-odd hours, nonetheless, he flew
in all the way. So, his visit was important, from his or his country’s point of
view as Moscow and New Delhi signed as many as 28 various agreements. But how
fruitful it was for India is a matter of interpretation and inference as the
experts would do.
The then USSR was a
friend from 1971,when both countries had singed a Peace and Friendship Treaty.
They remained so for a long time until Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991 and
declined subsequently as a super power.However, Moscow inched towards Beijing,
which emerged, thanks to western countries, which were in search of ‘cheap and
controlled labour force’ as the second biggest financial capital of the world.Russia has been compelled to forge closer ties with China to
secure its economic and geopolitical interests in Asia as the US-led West also seeks
to dominate the region. Perhaps, at the behest of China, Russia leaned
towards Pakistan too in terms military interactions.
New Delhi continues
to play the balancing act between Russia and its traditional rival USA and its
allies. The premise of New Delhi’s continued warmth for Moscow is the
long-tested friendship and its military purchases. However, in the event of the S-400 defence missile deal, it may be a tough call for
India to continue to do the balancing role as the US has sanctioned arms purchases
from Russia. Indian foreign policy establishment feels that the decision to buy
S-400 is in keeping with India’s practice of "strategic autonomy" and
it hopes that the US would respect that. Against this
backdrop, one should assess each big event involving India and Russia.
The
tradition of annual India-Russia summit began in 2000 during the Premiership of
Atal Bihari Vajpayee. This was the 21st India-Russia summit.
The Summits cover a range of areas with a view to enhancing the ‘special strategic
partnership’ between the two countries. The annual summit is held
alternately in India and Russia. This time Putin was accompanied by his Foreign
and Defence Ministers. As Prime Minister Modi received and met the Russian
President, the two ministers had 2+2 meeting with their counter parts.
In all,
India and Russia signed 28 agreements, including nine government-to-government
agreements and others relating to defence, space, finance, power, culture,
scientific research, education and health among others. They signed a contract for the manufacture of nearly 600,000 AK-203 rifles, under a joint venture in Amethi, Uttar Pradesh, which
was cleared by the government only recently. The deal is worth over Rs 5,000
crore.
The
deal that will draw international attention is the S-400 deal, because of US
threat of sanctions. Supplies have begun
already. Indian Air Force officials have been trained to handle this aircraft.
The Russianforeign minister Lavrov said “the deal does not only have symbolic
meaning, but is a very important practical, meaningful addition to Indian
defence capability. With the $5.43 bn S-400 as well other big-ticket
deals, the defence trade between India and Russia crossed $15 bn since 2018. In
addition to the rifles and aircraft, the two countries also
signed an agreement for military technology cooperation for the next decade
from 2021 to 2031. This was aimed at boosting annual
trade to $30 billion by 2025.
Importantly,
as per the bilateral trading format followed by New Delhi, both sides agreed to
encourage “joint manufacturing in India of spare parts, components, aggregates
and other products for maintenance of Russian-origin arms and defence equipment
under ‘MakeinIndia’ programme through transfer of technology”. They also agreed to set up joint ventures in
order to export to third countries.
On security, there
was a discussion on the eastern Ladakh border situation at the 2+2 meeting.
Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said, “the pandemic, the extraordinary
militarisation and expansion of armament in our neighbourhood and the
completely unprovoked aggression on our northern border since early summer of
2020 have thrown in several challenges” and that India is “confident of overcoming
these challenges with its strong political will and inherent capability of its
people”. The Russian minister briefed the Indian side on developments
pertaining to the Ukrainian situation where the western world is fearing an
attack by Russia.
The Russian Foreign
Minister pointed out their concerns on the developments in the Indo-Pacific
region. Lavrov said the West was "trying to engage
India in anti-China games by promoting Indo-Pacific strategies”. He
has openly criticised Quad since India
joined it -- an alliance consisting
of US, Japan and Australia. India has been maintainingthat Quad was a
non-military alliance and wasn't aimed at a specific country. The Quad is a red line for Russia and this most likely
becomes the part of the discussions between the two in most meetings.
On Afghanistan, as
per the joint statement issued at the end of the meeting said, they discussed
the “evolving situation in Afghanistan, especially the security situation and
its implications in the region, the current political situation, issues related
to terrorism, radicalisation and drug trafficking etc.” They talked of possible
formation of an inclusive and representative government in Afghanistan. They
also talked about combating terrorism and drug trafficking, providing immediate
humanitarian assistance and preserving the rights of women, children and
minorities. They emphasised, “Afghanistan’s territory should not be used for
sheltering, training, planning or financing any terrorist groups including
ISIS, Al Qaeda, LeT etc”. Putin said, “fight against
terrorism, drug trafficking and organised crime” are key challenges for which Russia
and India will have to cooperate.
But
apart from the big-ticket deals, trade agreements, and Modi’s charm offensives,
both New Delhi and Moscow have to grapple with many international issues. In
recent years, they have drifted apart by their respective geo-political
compulsions. Relations with China and USA are two such major points of
departure for both the countries. Growing India-US relations is an irritant
that has weighed over Delhi-Moscow ties, more so in the past decade.Moscow
largely overlooked such irritants even though its own relations with Washington
progressively deteriorated in recent years.
The
other is China. India-China relations have been recently tense. Troops from the two countries fought
a deadly clash in Ladakh's Galwan
Valley with clubs and stones which left 20 Indian soldiers dead. Thus, the new
geopolitical realities as cited here pose a "potential threat to the
India-Russia relationship". Yet, they seem to need each other. Russia
needs India as a counterweight to China. India and Russia are already partners
in several multinational forums along with China like BRICS, the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO) and theRIC (Russia, India and China).India also
is the second biggest importer of arms.
Reciprocally,
Moscowmay help New Delhi recover the lost ground in Afghanistan as the two have
shared concerns about the future of the country."Both Russia and India are
wary of the Taliban and the Haqqani Network, and the potential for terrorism
coming out of Afghanistan and impacting their countries”.
To
conclude, Moscow will continue to lean on India for arms exports.But can India
leverage those transactions for political and security gains vis-à-vis China
and Pakistan? Should it do so?---INFA
(Copyright,
India News & Feature Alliance)
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