Open Forum
New Delhi, 17
November 2021
COP26 Promises
TALL, CAN INDIA DELIVER?
By Dhurjati Mukherjee
The just-concluded
COP26 summit was full of commitments as is usually the case with most major international
events, but how much would be achieved remains a big question. The 1997 Kyoto
Protocol failed to meet its targets, while the next Copenhagen summit flopped
too. The 2015 historic Paris Agreement allowed countries to make unilateral,
unenforceable pledges that were far from reality. Even UN Secretary General
Antonio Guterres, said the idea that humanity is making enough progress is
nothing but “an illusion”.
Apart from Greta
Thunberg calling the meet a ‘failure’, announcements by governments and
corporations, including pledges to end deforestation, phase out coal-fired
plants and mobilise trillions of dollars for green initiatives, have been
dismissed by most activists as insufficient, impractical or riddled with
loopholes.
Prime Minister Modi’s
ambitious announcement that India would aim for net zero emissions by 2070 has
been hailed by some climate change analysts, but he also sought $1 trillion
from developed countries, reminding them of their unkept promises of financial
and technical support. Analysing the commitment, would it be wrong to state it
would be dependent on the finances made available by developed nations? The
commitment was a reversal from India’s position only a few days ago but other
pledges he outlined were in line with its stand that now focus should be on
curbing emissions.
It is significant
that Modi committed that India would by 2030 cut one billion tonnes of carbon
emissions, which means the country would reduce 22% of greenhouse gases in
carbon equivalent from its inventory by that date; meet 50% of its energy needs
from renewable energy, reduce its economy’s carbon intensity by 45% and
increase its installed non-fossil fuel energy to 500 GW from 134 GW in 2019.
Though more clarity
on how India would achieve its goals would come through the country’s formal
submission of the nationally determined contributions (NDCs), the commitments appear
a little too ambitious. Moreover, it unclear in international circles whether
the net zero pledge by 2070 was for carbon emissions alone or for all
greenhouse gases. Though the country’s entire GHG inventory is currently less
than 3 billion tonnes and it will be 4.5 billion tonnes in 2030 in a
business-as-usual scenario, a section of environmentalists like Dr. Sunita
Narain of CSE have rightly pointed out that given our comparatively low
contributions to global emissions, coupled with the fact that our economy needs
to grow at a fast pace and meet energy needs of millions of poor citizens, the
commitment was not necessary at this stage.
One may also refer to
Prof. Anand Patwardhan of University of Maryland, who in a recent interview,
said a comparison of the current trends between China and India would
necessitate India’s target year to be long after China. According to him, “if
India were to follow a similar emission trajectory, Indian emissions would not
reach net zero until 2087”. He also wanted the conference to focus on
finance and technology transfers needed to achieve a low carbon economy for the
developing world.
The announcements
have put India on a major role towards the overall mitigation action. Obviously,
some serious steps need to be taken to steer the course of action in the coming
years. Firstly, if 50 GW of power generation capacity has to be achieved, India
must create an enabling environment. Excluding hydro projects, the country’s
installed renewable capacity is about 100 GW, out of which the private sector
owns 48%. Experts believe that India has the potential to produce around 900 GW
in renewable energy from commercially exploitable sources, much of it from
solar energy.
Obviously, to meet
its targets, private and global investors need to be given special incentives.
Secondly, for meeting 50% electricity generation through renewables, the
country’s grid infrastructure will need to be strengthened and battery storage
capacity massively increased. This apart, a large skilled workforce would be
required to run the new electricity infrastructure. However, it has to be
ensured that in the new era of green energy, we do not carry forward the legacy
of unequal development.
The first action that
India needs to take is to develop green hydrogen as the earliest. According to
estimates, India is likely to consume 11.7 million tonnes of carbon intensive
industrial grey hydrogen by 2030, primarily in the refinery and fertilizer
sector, two-fold of the 5.6 MT today. It must ensure a large proportion of the
upcoming new hydrogen capacity should be green in addition to mandating a
fraction of existing capacities to go green.
To address the low
supply of electrolysers in the world, India is building capacities of 20 GW of
long lasting electrolysers in the coming decades but these may not be
sufficient. With proactive collaboration between innovators, entrepreneurs and
government, green hydrogen has the potential to drastically reduce CO2
emissions, fight climate change and put India on a path towards net zero energy
imports. There may also be a time when the country may be able to export high
value green products, making it one of the major economies to industrialise
without the need to carbonise.
Besides, there has to
be a thrust on increasing nuclear power capacity. As per an OECD report, under
net zero emissions scenario, without nuclear. the minimum average cost to
consumers could be two to four times higher depending on the electricity region
one is talking about. Thus we can ill afford costlier electricity supply in
India. However, it is heartening to note that green hydrogen and consequent
sharp increase in share of electricity could be leveraged to accommodate load
variability in grid operation of nuclear power plants with reactors operating
in near steady state, thereby making grid operations more robust.
It is necessary that
though the cry of emission control is more than valid, it should not affect
developmental activities. India must take every opportunity to highlight the
fact that its per capita emissions are much lower than the Western
world. However, it’s gratifying that the draft agreement called for
doubling of funds to help developing countries cope with climate impacts though
disputes remained over money, the speed of emissions and the mention of ‘fossil
fuels’, the principle cause of climate change. As is well known, the rich world
has not yet delivered the $100 billion annual aid it promised to deliver last
year.
Finally, one should
not lose hope as green investing has become a global cry. Foreign companies are
expected in India in the not-to-distant future and Indian corporates like
Ambani and Adani are too in this business to expand solar power as also green
hydrogen. Only time will tell how much of the commitments made by India are
fulfilled. But there is a long way to go. Judicious planning, involving
scientists and environmentalists with participation of technocrats both from
the public and private sectors, is urgently needed.---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
|