Events & Issues

New Delhi, 4 November 2021

Deepavali Release

FOR PEOPLE OR PANDEMIC?

By Dr S. Saraswathi

(Former Director, ICSSR, New Delhi)

Caught between fear of third wave of Covid-19 and the need to restore our economy and our irresistible desire to participate and celebrate social festivals with usual enthusiasm, governments and people everywhere in the country are in a peculiar mood. Festivals like Navarathri and Deepavali celebrated all over the country and which even attract non-Hindus and went off on a low key with limited lockdown in 2020 are eagerly awaited this year by young and old alike to be back in usual glamour. Still there are pessimists picturing to themselves post-Deepavali behaviour of the pandemic - all in black. Precautions in place and the response of the people provide a mixed picture of hope and despair.

Needless to mention that crowds have proved to be super spreaders of the pandemic and so crowd collecting occasions have become the targets of attack. Hence, containing crowds is one of the principal measures in socially fighting the disease -- a method directly striking at the roots of all festivals. There is no festival that is celebrated in solo or in silence. Most places of worship are most noisy places in India and biggest crowd gathering sites. Worship is a form and  occasion of social gathering.

The connection between mega gathering events, abbreviated as MGEs, and spread of Corona-19 is not just based on commonsense, but proved by a survey of several events in various countries including China, Malaysia, Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, and Jordan. Such events are characterized by “concentration of large population at a specific place for a specific purpose” making it impossible for organizers and crowd controlling authorities to enforce order which in the present pandemic situation includes observance of Covid-19 regulations.

Lockdown is mainly intended to prevent human contact. But no nation’s economy can withstand long closure of normal economic activities. Closure of educational institutions for whole years will impact physical, mental, social, and intellectual state of children and youth. The challenge today is to restore routine pre-Covid-19 life and activities without re-opening the doors to the pandemic, i.e. re-integrating ourselves with our normal life and simultaneously disassociating from Covid-19. It means that we have to lift lockdown and should not crowd, but have a merry Deepavali and other festivals. Is this possible?

Reports have appeared in the press that some States were showing signs of a spike in Covid-19 infections after Dushera celebrations. West Bengal, Assam, Kerala, Himachal Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu reported increase in the number of positive cases as well as death compared to the decline recorded earlier. Absolute number, however, was not showing alarming increase.

Findings of a study by the International Institute of Population Studies show that life expectancy has declined by two years for both men and women in India taking away the improvement   recorded in the last decades. It is a serious matter but the impact may not last long. For, life expectancy keeps changing and reduces fast in times of epidemics. Premature deaths are temporary and stray cases and are not likely to alter death rates or age structure of the population or cause of death with long term effect. 

Some scientists are of the opinion that a new mutated form of Covid-19 causing Corona virus (AY 4.2) that caused panic in Europe and spreading rapidly in the UK as more contagious than Delta is present in India also but in very low numbers. The matter is still under investigation and severity and risk factors have to be verified. Some cases of the new variant, reported from Indore, is cause of concern in view of the current festival season and unmanageable crowding.

Coinciding with Deepavali festival is our decision to reopen classes I to VIII in schools from 1 November under detailed regulations and strict enforcement with schools given freedom to conduct classes in the way best suited to them.

All States meaning governments and people presently seem to be happy to be relieved of lockdown restrictions. Their worry is more about financial loss than health problem.

Prime Minister Modi has advised people to celebrate festivals with utmost restraint in view of the ongoing pandemic stressing that there is no reason to be carefree. Mentioning about our success in administering 100 crore doses of anti-Covid vaccines which is a world record, he reminded people that this is no reason to be complacent about Covid-19 protocols. “Having a strong kavach (armour) does not mean that people should let down their guard”, he said.

This advice that was given as soon as the pandemic was traced in India has to be sounded again and again because people’s seriousness in adhering to prescribed behaviour is broadly related to the degree of lockdown restrictions. Less restrictions is taken as less threat of the pandemic and removal of restrictions will invariably be understood as zero threat of the epidemic in the country.

With Deepavali crowds at shopping areas grow thicker and thicker in all cities and towns. Social distancing guidelines are thrown away. Common mentality is that this festival comes only once a year, but guidelines can be picked up again.

It refuses to realise that it is not the decline in the risk factor of the Corona virus, but the economic compulsion that is behind opening of activities. For the common people, lifting lockdown means permitting gatherings and festivals. There are sections in the governments also   keen to promote celebration of festivals with more and more facilities to please people and speak more about relaxations and removal of lockdown than on the need to adhere to Covid-19 norms like maintaining social distance thus leaving the Prime Minister almost alone to campaign for restraint in celebrations.  

Thus, the Southern Railway, for instance, has decided to add unreserved compartments in some trains. We know what it means -- packed trains and footboard passengers. Theatres are allowed to run shows with house-full audience. Bars and night clubs are open. It seems that selective restrictions will be resented and may even be legally fought. People forget that fighting Corona virus is neither politics nor a religious question. It is a public health crisis.

The term “social gathering” is used in the context of the spread of Covid-19.  According  to the WHO, an event counts as a mass gathering “if the number of people it brings together is so large  that it has the potential  to strain the planning and response resources of the health system in the community where it takes place.” The location, duration, and number of participants in the event are crucial features. WHO attributed rise in Corona virus cases in Europe in July to EURO 2020 Football Matches and functioning of pubs and bars in the host cities. If the same yardstick is applied, Deepavali shopping crowd and temple festivals where thousands of people gather without moving space are social gatherings.

Social-religious events which are utmost priorities in life, have become the deciding factor in following Covid-19 norms since the crisis situation has ended. If we lose balanced thinking and sense of proportion, Deepavali release will not be for us from the pandemic but for Covid-19 from attackers.---INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)