Round The World
New Delhi, 13 August 2021
India-Australia Ties
COMBATING CHINA’S COERCION
By Dr D K Giri
(Prof.
International Politics, JIMMC)
The Former Prime Minister of Australia Tony Abbot, visiting India last
week as the special envoy to finalise a Free Trade Agreement has sounded a
dramatic message to China and the world. If what he said happens, it would mean
a radical change for Indian economy and its role in the world. The statements
made by Abbot should not be treated as a diplomatic nicety, but a sign of
serious geo-political shift in the region.
Abbot said that a FTA between Australia and India would signal the
‘democratic world’stilt towards India
away from China’. Furthermore, he emphasised in as opinion piece in an
Australian daily, “Answer to almost every question about China is India.” There
cannot be a greater compliment and support to India. But will it materialise?
Why does Australia come so strongly in favour of India? Australia was friendly with China. Abbot himself,
when he was the Prime Minister, had signed a bilateral FTA with China in 2015.
He had also spread the redcarpet to Xi Jinping in 2014 when the latter was on a
state visit to Australia. Negotiations between India and Australia for a Comprehensive
Economic Cooperation Agreement began in 2011, and got suspended in 2015: the
same time as Australia concluded the Agreement with China.
The reasons for Australia’s change of stance are not far to seek. The
principal one is the realisation of the western world, including Australia, is
that they were propping up a dictatorial regime in China. In order to perhaps
take advantage of cheap labour, tighter controls, and big population. The west
invested heavily in China. They ignored the interface between politics and
economy. As the economy grew, Beijing unfolded its political culture of
authoritarianism at home and expansionism abroad. Its coercive positions became
manifest. Abbot, perhaps was speaking for all the rich western democracies, when
he said, “The basic problem is that China’s daunting power is the consequence
of the free world’s decision to invite a communist dictatorship into the global
trading network”.
Abbot accused China of exploiting the goodwill of the west. He demurred that
China was under- cutting their industries and stealing their technologies. And
by doing so, it became a more powerful competitor than the former Soviet Union.
Beijing was rapidly developing its military to match the only super power. In
the process, Beijing has been threatening and intruding into territories of its
neighbours, itching to take over a democracy like Taiwan and so on.
On the bilateral front, Canberra was peeved by Beijing’s boycott of
Australian products--coal,barley,wine and seafood. Chinadid it as it sensed
Australia cosying up to the US and joining India and Japan to constitute Quad,
an alliance aimed at checking Chinese hegemony in the region.
As a retaliation, Australia banned the Chinese telecom giant Huwai from
communications infrastructure projects, outlawed Beijing covert interference in
Australian internal politics. More annoying for Beijing perhaps was Australia
demanding an independent investigation into the origins of the Covid-19
pandemic. In fact, Australia was the first country in the world to make that
demand. The relations between Australia and China have been ruptured beyond
immediate repair. Although nothing is written in stone in international politics,
confirming the diplomatic adage that, there are no permanent friends or enemies
in world politics.Normalisation of relations between Australia and China is
quite unlikely.
Australia is turning to India to replace China as the manufacturing hub
of the world, and counter the biggest communist dictatorship by the biggest
democracy of the world. Abbott’s prognosis is that the rise of China as the other
super power while becoming increasingly belligerent, it is in order that India
occupies a bigger position as a counter-weight to China. He further postulates
that trade deals are used as political weapons. So a swift deal between Australia
and India would signal to the world that democracies would support India
vis-à-vis China.
Abbott’s hypothesis on India being the substitute for China for the
western world provides a great scope for India. New Delhi should grab it with
both hands and build its capacity and context accordingly. Only last year, the
bilateral relations have been upgraded with a slew of agreements signed between
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Australian counterpart Scott Morrison. The
agreements are aimed at deepening the defence ties and expanding the trade.
There are a few sticking points in concluding an agreement. They are
normal in any negotiations. New Delhi is particularly concerned about free trade
in Australian farm exports. Likewise, Australia is concerned about Indian
workers seeking less restrictive visas to their country. These reservations
should be ironed out with mutual understanding and concessions. The Australian High
Commission in India was hopeful that Abbot’s visit would “propel economic
relationship to its full potential, to the mutual benefit of the Indian and
Australian people”.
Now to deal with question whether this would materialise at all; whether
India will be the answer to everything in China? It will depend upon how New
Delhi reacts to such goodwill and the strategic shift shown by the west. New
Delhi had misread the Chinese mind 70 years ago, as the west did recently. It is
high time that the democracies of the world take on board the threat posed by
China. New Delhi can no longer think of engaging and accommodating Beijing. It
has to counter China in all areas of diplomacy, economy and defence.
In order to be able to checkmate China, New Delhi will have to do the
following:First, it has to strengthen democracy, because there is a visible
downslide in India. The institutions including Parliament are being compromised.
The legal (majoritarianism) is confused as democratic. This distinction has to
be recognised. Second, New Delhi has to put the economy back on track.
Admittedly, covid pandemic disrupted the economies across the world, but Indian
economy was in a downturn even before the pandemic. The political climate and trade
regime have to be made conducive for trade creation and a clear diversion from
China.
Third, New Delhi has to give up its balancing and non-aligned posturing
in favour of joining the democracies of the world. Fourth, if New Delhi aspires to match Beijing,
it has to look and become different from China. The fear is that the current
regime in Delhi is quietly echoing Chines systems. New Delhi will have to stick
to its civilisational values of liberty, equity, pluralism, solidarity in its foreign
policy.
Australia’s offer is a historic opportunity. New Delhi should not miss
as Nehru did with the American offer to become a permanent membership of the
UNSC. Let us learn from the past and not repeat the monumental mistake. ---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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