Round The World
New Delhi, 6 August 2021
Jaishankar In Iran
PLAYING A BALANCER
By Dr D.K. Giri
(Prof. International politics, JIMMC)
External Affairs Minister SJaishankar has announced a visit to Tehran
for the swearing-in ceremony of the newly-elected President Raisi. In addition
to being a usual diplomatic protocol, the visit raises expectation of New Delhi
playing a moderating and balancing role in the US and Iran relationship. Can
New Delhi meet those expectations, at least of Iran? Will it help India’s
foreign policy?
Iranian Ambassador to New Delhi Ali Chegini said they would welcome any
initiative in de-escalation of tension between Washington and Tehran. He hailed
New Delhi for being an advocate of peace in the world and feels that India
could contribute to normalisation of relations between them and the Americans.
The relationship between two countries hit rock bottom with the assassination
of General Qaseem Solemani by the US and Iran’s counter attack.
Admittedly, the perception of India as a balancer stems from its policy
of non-alignment followed since the first government led by Jawaharlal Nehru. I
have long argued that such policy was untenable and unproductive pan India. Not
only that New Delhi could not maintain its non-aligned position when its
security became perilous in 1971, and New Delhi signed a security treaty with the
Soviet Union. The rest is history.
Admittedly, India has had deep historic ties with Iran and currently New
Delhi is heavily dependent upon Washington for its external security. New Delhi
would like to straddle upon two horses, but can it?
India depends upon Iran not just for oil. In 2016, when Narendra Modi
visited Tehran both countries signed as many as 12 agreements including the
critical one on building the Chabahar port, which was supposed to give access
to India to the Central Asia via-Afghanistan by passing Pakistan territory.
Chabahar is supposed to check Beijing’s growing influence in the Indian Ocean.
The Gwadar port 100 kms away from Chabahar is under China’s control. The rail
line developed beyond Chabahar will connect up to Afghanistan.
However, this crucial link has run into rough weather under the dramatic
changes in the geo-politics of the region mainly, the explosive situation in
Afghanistan post-American withdrawal.
In India-US-Iran relations, Pakistan is the elephant in the room.Although
Pakistan and Iran are not in the best of terms because of Saudi Arabia
dimension, and Pakistan is Sunni Islam whereas Iran is Shia country. Yet,
Pakistan draws China into the equation for the regional hegemony of latter.
For Iran too India is quite important. To start with, India is a huge
market for Iranian projects. Iran as an Islamic country with nuclear ambitions
would like to have ties with the biggest democracy of the world. Keeping this
mutual interest in mind, both countries had signed two major declarations--Tehran
Declaration in 2001 and New Delhi Declaration in 2003. Before these
declarations could be implemented, the Iranian nuclear controversy intensified.
There are three major issues that determine India-Iran relations. One is
the development of Farzad B-Gas field in which ONGC was initially involved.
India was supposed to take part in its development. Tehran decided to exclude
India for some reason. The second is the railway line between Chabahar to
Zahedan, the capital of Iran’s Baluchistan and Sistan province. This project
too was withdrawn from India by Iran. Negotiations are apparently ongoing
between the companies of the two countries.
The third element is the Chabahar port itself. Iran recently has opened
it to other country including China. It has denied the strategic utility of the
port and made it plainly commercial. This should alter the equation between
India and Iran in view of the possible Chinese presence in the project.
Over all, India’s economic and strategic strength provides a limited
role to play in the Middle-East. New Delhi is tilting towards the US and the
West, but has not severed its old ties with Russia and even China.
Take for example, India buying S-400 missile system;even China, Turkey
and Iran are a part of this defence system. How does this give any advantage to
India? Secondly, if the Middle Eastern countries,like Iran. were to choose
between India and China, they would rather go with the latter for its much
stronger economy and the permanent membership of the UNSC.
The US has given a waiver from Chabahar and possibly for S-400 missiles
too. But will India manage to keep the balance between two blocs? New Delhi has
to weigh in Iran’s compulsions. It has traditionally leaned towards the west,
but now it is veering around China. This change of sides may put India-Iran
relations in an uncomfortable position. New Delhi has to either impress upon US
to soften its posture on Iran, or choose sides as Tehran seems to do.
The other option is to go with Saudi Arabia than Iran. Although Saudi
peninsula has sympathy for a fellow Sunni country like Pakistan, Saudi Arabia’s
relations with US are stronger and durable. That will help New Delhi deepen
contacts with Saudi Arabia. The hostility between Saudis and Iranians will force
the former to remain tied with Americans.
New Delhi may not be able to take sides between US and Iran, but enhance
its regional diplomacy to alienate Iran. There is a sizeable Shia population in
India, which has sympathies for Iran but since Modi government is not dependent
on Muslim votes, it is expected to take a foreign policy position disregarding
the vote bank. In addition to Saudi Arabia, Israel is daggers drawn at Iran.
The deep hostilities between two countries and US support for Israel would any
day define US attitude towards Iran, which would be aggressive and
non-conciliatory.
Iran has moved closer to China and Russia, the two countries leading the
anti-American bloc. Russia has been supportive of Iran’s position in Syria.
Russia condemned the attack on Suleimani by US and China was ever more
vociferous.
With military advent rising. China is the biggest oil market for Iran,
an arms supplier can be a top trade partner. Last December, Russia-China-Iran
had a joint naval exercise in the Gulf of Oman. It was the first of its kind
and was aimed at saying to the US that Iran was not alone.
Now, at the time of writing, Jaishankar would be attending the
swearing-in ceremony of EbrahimRaisi. He had met Raisi before he took office. In
fact, he was the first foreign minister to do so. Apparently,Narendra Modi was
inviting the new President to visit New Delhi.
While the warmth in diplomatic ties is exchanged, the geo-political
relations in the region is undergoing rapid changes. The recent pact of 400
billion USD deals between China and Iran will provide access to China in the
region. Against intense Iran-US rivalry, China backing up Iran will provide the
latter with stability assurance. New Delhi cannot do much expect go with US and
its allies like Israel and Saudi Arabia. There is not much room for New Delhi
to manoeuvre. New Delhi should stop the balancing role and defend its national
interest by making stronger partnership. ---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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