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New Delhi, 21 April 2021
Environmental Outlook
RECOVERY PACKAGE CRITICAL
By Dhurjati Mukherjee
Last year was meant to be a landmark year in
climate ambition with around nine years left for Agenda 2030, Instead it turned
out to be the year of Covid-19. International climate governance was stalled as
several governments started announcing emergency stimulus packages to rescue
their economies. Besides, the United Nations Climate Change Conference, which was
supposed to give a practical shape to the Paris agreement, got deferred.
Last month, American President Joe Biden announced
the hosting of 40 world leaders, including Narendra Modi at a virtual summit on
April 22 (World Earth Day). The changed approach of the US, to return to the
Paris Agreement, is no doubt a welcome change, as it is the world’s biggest
emitter. The Summit will underscore the urgency – and the economic
benefits – of stronger climate action, says the US. Moreso, as in recent years,
scientists have underscored the need to limit planetary warming to 1.5 degrees
Celsius in order to stave off the worst impacts of climate change.
The Summit, is expected to highlight examples of how enhanced climate
ambition will create good paying jobs, advance innovative technologies, and
help vulnerable countries adapt to climate impacts. By the time of the Summit,the
US will announce an ambitious 2030 emissions target as its new Nationally
Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement and Biden has urged leaders
to use the Summit as an opportunity to outline how their countries also will
contribute to stronger climate ambition.
Perhaps, the pandemic offered an opportunity
to plan sustainable pathways in the run-up to Agenda 2030. Obviously, sustainability
needs adequate attention at this juncture. An ecological transition is
necessary and the process has already started by a shift from fossils to
renewables for faster economic recovery. However, recovery packages calls for
mobilising funds for achieving sustainable pathways. In this context, the
COP26, now scheduled to take place in November in Glasgow, is crucial.
Though the US has taken interest on
environmental issues, after Biden came to power, environmental groups and scientistsare
calling on him to set a target that would cut US greenhouse gas emissions by at
least 50 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030.While there is a big question mark
on whether Biden will oblige, the Summit has on its agenda to highlight
examples of how enhanced climate ambition will create good paying jobs, advance
innovative technologies, and help vulnerable countries adapt to climate impacts
in the backdrop that the global outlook doesn’t look quite encouraging. The US
and China are top two emitters. while India is placed in the fourth position
and this is unlikely to change in the coming two-three years.
However, it is encouraging to note a
framework adopted by the UN Statistical Commission would ensure that ‘natural
capital’ – forests, wetlands and other ecosystems – are counted in reporting
wealth of countries. A school of economists has for sometime argued that
environmental capital be considered a factor of production just like labour and
capital. They said if environmental degradation is measured, the ‘real growth’
of a country would be apparent.
Though India, China, UK, France, Germany and
many other European countries have already made some progress in implementing
the System of Environmental Economic Accounting (SEEA), the adoption of new framework
will push the others, including the US, towards figuring out worth of their
natural ecosystem and including it in accounting process.
The new framework goes beyond the commonly
used statistics of GDP in economic reporting. It means the countries’ wealth
will reflect dependence of the economy on nature or its impact on it, such as
the deterioration of water quality or the loss of a forest. Similarly,
restoration or conservation may be a ‘credit’ that lessens the loss of GDP.
India has already taken a step towards
measuring values of nature when it figured out economic valuation of 16 tiger
reserves as part of a conservation plan in two phases in 2013-19. The study
indicated that the monetary value of flow benefits from the selected 10 tiger
reserves range from Rs 5094 to Rs 16,202 crore annually.
As regards carbon footprint, India has been
consistently increasing in sync with its development needs but the country will
eventually exceed what it had voluntarily pledged to the UN climate body with
respect to its pre-2020 commitments. In its third biennial update report
(BUR-III), submitted to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC)
recently, India declared that its emission intensity (per unit of GDP) had
reduced by 24 per cent between 2005 and 2016. Therefore, it was on track to
meet its voluntary declaration to reduce the emission intensity of GDP by 20-25
per cent from 2005 levels by 2020. But experts are of the opinion that this may
not be enough to tackle global warming.
Though there has been some decline in the
agriculture sector, it remains the main source of methane (CH4) and nitrous
oxide (N2O) emissions. Methane emissions occur from this sector mainly due to
livestock rearing (enteric fermentation and manure management) and paddy
cultivation while N2O is principally emitted due to the application of
fertilizers to agricultural soils. In the energy sector, electricity production
was the single largest source, accounting for about 40 per cent of national GHG
emissions in 2016 while manufacturing industries and construction together
emitted over 18% of total emissions.
Seven family conglomerates – Reliance, Adani,
Tate, Aditya Birla, Mahindra, Jindal and Vedanta – are responsible for emitting
at least 539 million tonnes of CO2 annually. This is equivalent to 22 per cent
of India’s total CO2 emissions. In 2019-20, these seven groups operated 25 per
cent of India’s coal based power plants (50,000 MW), produced 39 per cent of
India’s steel (43 million tonnes), 27% of India’s cement (91 million tonnes)
and 22 per cent of India’s passenger and commercial vehicles (0.92 million).
To avert a crisis like climate change,
forward thinking and long term planning is required, for which the value of
committed visionary leadership cannot be underestimated. As family
conglomerates are organised around visionaries, if they sincerely act on the
climate crisis, which appears quite doubtful. the climate situation may not
improve to the desired extent.
Meanwhile, the global picture is somewhat
confusing with rich people the worldover still enjoying 79 per cent of their
energy from fossil fuels. However, it needs to be pointed out that climate
policies harm the developing world. As recently pointed out by President of the
Copenhagen Consensus Center: “The Paris Agreement will force more people into
poverty by 2030 than otherwise would’ve happened”. If we aim for 20 C or 1.50
C, a recent peer reviewed study showed it will mean 80 million more poor and
180 million more starving by mid-century. But warming may be more and thus more
poor people are expected to be affected in various ways, specially through
cyclones, floods, heat waves etc.
While experts have rightly suggested targets
must be enforced, India need not panic and yield to world pressure as it has
already met its pre-2020 voluntary targets. Moreover, with a per capita income
of just Rs 2000, the country should follow a conservative approach in any
climate negotiations as it would be risky to place big bets on clean tech. As
recently pointed out by the country’s environment minister, the rich nations
should first fulfill the targets which they had promised and also help
demerging economies with financial and technological support to meet their
mitigation and adaptation goals. Indeed, set an example they should.---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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