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Round The World
New Delhi, 14 May
2021
US Exiting Afghanistan
QUAD SHOULD STEP IN
By Dr. D. K. Giri
(Prof. International Politics, JIMMC)
Violence has spiked
in Afghanistan since Americans declared to withdraw their remaining troops.
They had given the deadline 1st of May under Donald Trump
administration; Joe Biden extended it to September 11, the 20th anniversary
of the twin-tower attack. Americans entered Afghanistan in order to flush out
Osama Bin Laden, the mastermind of the attack in the United states. Taliban,
however, are treating 1st May as the deadline, and have stepped up
the violent assaults on Afghan government agencies and the civilians. Not yet engaging
the American forces, they are waiting perhaps for the September deadline.
The violence by Taliban
points to the things that are about to come. The Interior Ministry on Monday last
said that around 11 people were killed by a bomb that exploded in a bus in
Southeastern Zabul province. It was in fact followed by the carnage two days
before Monday, outside a school in Kabul when a series of bombs went off killing
50 people and woundingover 100, many of them young girls. Taliban is making it
loud and clear its attitude about women receiving education and about non-Sunni
population.
It may have two
motivations in unleashing the violence. One, to warn the Americans that unless they
keep the second deadline, they could engage the Americans too. Second, they
would continue to attack until the Americans and NATO forces have withdrawn. Taliban,
in fact,is adamant that they will not enter into any more negotiations until
all the foreign forces are withdrawn from their soil.
Whatever be the
drivers for Talibanic violence, the US withdrawal leaves Afghanistan in the
lurch, abandoning the country to bombers of school kids and innocent civilians.
The US, the reigning super power with a mighty military does help the helpless
countries when their independence and human rights are threatened. But it does
not do so pretty strategically. The US often-times creates a monster and then decides
to fight it. Be it Saddam Hussein in Iraq, Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, Pol Pot in
Cambodia, Marcos in Philippines, authoritarian regime in China, and Mujahedinin
Afghanistan,who later became Taliban and the Military dictatorship in Pakistan.
In relation to
Afghanistan, let us recall that America heavily supported Pakistan to create
and nurture Mujahedin to drive out the Soviets. Many of the Mujahedin leaders
went on to form Taliban actively supported by the Pakistani army. Although Soviets
had withdrawn and subsequently, due to their own disintegration, lost interest
and influence over Afghanistan. But Pakistan continued to meddle in that
country and wanted a puppet government with Taliban helming it.
Americans interest in
Afghanistan dwindled and Pakistani-backed Taliban took over the country. Islamabad
used most of its military support received from the US in cross-border
terrorism against India. Also, it was no accident that in 1999, Pakistani
terrorists hijacked an Indian plane, Indian Airlines 814 and took it to
Kandahar to negotiate with Indian government for the release of dreaded
terrorist Masood Azhar and two of his accomplices.
Americans stormed
back to Afghanistan after the terror attack on the World Trade Centre in New
York City. They came to hunt down Bin Laden who was sheltered by the Taliban.
It is another matter, after 11 years Osama Bin Laden was found and killed in
Abbottabad, Pakistan. They are now leaving the country without completing the
work, vanquishing the enemy, that is Taliban. Will Taliban and other terrorist
groups associated with it not bite back? Without putting a viable alternative
in place to rein in on Taliban, the exit of Americans defies comprehension.
Perhaps, Americans think they can bounce back should such an eventuality arise
threatening their security and interests.
Understandably, the
opinion on American withdrawal is divided. In the Senate, Mitch McConnell
called the plan reckless and a grave mistake. He said: “it is a retreat in the
face of an enemy that has not yet been vanquished and abdication of American
leadership”. Some fear that US exit will lead to the collapse of the government
in Kabul and so will the gains made in social development, health, education,
women’s rights and so on. Government supporters say they will link with the
Kabul government diplomatically and extend necessary political support.
Furthermore, the US
knows that it has big strategic interest in the world. It has to deal with an
aggressive and assertive Russia, nuclear-ambitious North Korea, and Iran, and
the competition for supremacy emerging from an expansionist China. In fact, the
challenge from China should be the overriding concern for Americans. And they
should realise that the very challenge may manifest in a big way in Afghanistan
and will tell upon the security of India-Pacific region. Americans are
investing heavily their diplomatic and other resources in firewalling the
region with Quad.
How will the
challenge play out in Afghanistan? Quad is created to contain China. Being the
immediate neighbour, India faces the Chinese hunger for territory and hegemonic
supremacy. Americans want to develop India as a counter-weight to China. This
strategy is shaping slow due to New Delhi dithering and clinging on to its so-called
strategic autonomy. However, the American and Indian formal alliance will
happen sooner or later. In the meantime, if Afghanistan is left alone, Pakistan
at the behest of its new mentor China, will use it to sponsor terrorism in
other countries. They will target and engage New Delhi first, so that it cannot
proceed with its Quad project.
Is America not giving
an opening in Afghanistan to China and even Russia to challenge its supremacy? China
has openly derided Quad as an anti-Beijing grouping. Even Russia has expressed
its disapproval of Quad. Only days ago, China has threatened Bangladesh with
serious reprisals if Dhaka was to have any kind of association with the Quad.
The Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh Li Jimming has announced in Dhaka that the
bilateral ties “will be substantially damaged” if Bangladesh goes anywhere near
the Quad.
Dhaka has predictably
reacted to the threat as unfortunateand aggressive and its Foreign Minister AK
Abdul Momen has retorted: “we are an independent and sovereign state and we
decide our foreign policy”. Having said that, he has sought to perhaps placate
the Chinese as he said, Bangladesh has been following a non-aligned and
balanced foreign policy and we will stick to that principle. It is again
understandable as Beijing’s strategy is to dominate countries by debt, if not by
the military as Americans do. Many countries including Bangladesh are indebted
to China and it is demanding its pound of flesh as compliance with its
strategic interests.
In sum, it will be
imprudent for America to withdraw without an alternative force to support the
elected government of Afghanistan in the face of Taliban, who are on the prowl
to pull Afghanistanback to the dark, medieval age and let the countries around
it feel its heavily negative fallouts. Quad is by far the best option to
replace the US as many countries like Britain and France will join this group
to foster democracy, human rights and a rule-based order. Time for serious
rethink really. ---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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