Events & Issues
New Delhi, 11 March 2021
High Voltage Polls
FINALS FOR SERIES,
NOT END
By Dr.S.Saraswathi
(Former Director,
ICSSR, New Delhi)
All the four States - Assam, Kerala, Tamil
Nadu and West Bengal - and the Union Territory of Pondicherry are going through
high voltage election campaigns inevitable as high stakes are involved for all
parties. For professional politicians including those to whom politics is a
hereditary occupation, the result will have multiple implications.
Politics in all these five places is not the
same as it was when they last went to polls. Dramatic rise of the BJP coupled
with the global appreciation earned by Prime Minister Modi and BJP’s relentless
pursuit of expanding its power and influence are factors present in the
background of the extraordinary significance attached to this election package.
Political consciousness of the people is rising fast.
Assembly elections are no longer an event
confined to State politics and State-level leaders. They make an impact on national politics - be
it a big State like Uttar Pradesh or a small UT like Pondicherry. It is equally
true of States where the two big national parties confront each other as in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, and States
where regional parties dominate like Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, and States where pre-poll and post-poll alliances
determine the outcome of the game as in Maharashtra and Karnataka.
Hence, successive State elections conducted
between Lok Sabha elections have gained and not lost public enthusiasm. It is
reflected in hectic campaigns and fiery speeches drawing vast crowds. Professional election managers are
employed and studies conducted at various levels.
Nationalisation of State politics seems to be
shaping with the growth of the BJP. National leaders of various parties are engaged full-time in
State-level campaigns. State and national issues are getting mixed up, thus enhancing
the significance of every election as a national event just like regionalisation of national politics earlier
in the wake of rise of strong regional parties and the concept of Third Front. Normal
life shows a change in poll-bound states.
Discussions about parties, leaders and candidates are common among
common people in States like Tamil Nadu.
Indeed, ever since the decline of one-party
dominance of the Congress, the concept of State politics as something limited
to a State has receded to the background. All elections are national events that in some
way impact parties and politicians in all States – a crucial factor making 2021 State elections a bitter fight.
Will the declining trend of the Congress and
the rise of the BJP be further confirmed? Which of the regional parties will
stay and grow and which will get submerged in the national wave or get absorbed
in the local big brother? Will there be any major shift in inter-party or
intra-party relations? Will the elections throw new leaders and/or throw out
old and weak? Are “insider” and “outsider”
labels relevant? All these queries will find some clue after May. What is felt
today is the extraordinary heat of election atmosphere seeking answers.
Of the five, NDA government is only in one
State - Assam, and therefore, it need not be over-nervous about approaching
elections. But, it is facing too many enemies on the roads despite its strength in Parliament. Congress is powerless
in all these places having lost Pondicherry to President’s rule. West Bengal
and Tamil Nadu are firmly in the grip of regional parties and both national
parties have to apply several strategies to gain entry and recognition. Kerala is a fortress of leftists.
While this is the broad situation, victory
and defeat have tremendous long-term significance to draw the attention of
non-playing parties elsewhere. Thus, Assembly elections have acquired unusually
strong national importance – a development healthy for not only federalism, but
also for national unity and
integration.
In the context of Grand Alliances, National
Fronts, Third Front, Mahagathbandhans, Rainbow
Coalitions, etc., no party, however small, can remain indifferent to the
fortunes of its potential and actual allies and their opponents. But, alliance
politics is also not simple and straightforward. Todays’ ally may be yesterday’s or tomorrow’s
enemy.
For, alliance
is not based on ideology to be predictable and logical, but on political
calculations. It may be positive in
favour of something or negative against something. It may be time- bound or object-bound. It may
be for contesting election in the form of seat sharing and common campaigning
and resource help in which case, vote banks and caste/community block votes
matter most. It may be for sharing posts
in which case, bitter electoral enemies may join hands after election as in
Maharashtra. It may be for performance
within the parliament or outside as witnessed in protests. These varied types are on display in the States/UT
going to polls making pre-election bargaining exciting.
Winning West Bengal is a prestigious issue
and equally important for both TMC and the BJP. If the former wins, its leader will
have high chances of becoming the leader
of anti-BJP protests in future
and the face of anti-BJP alliance in 2024 Lok Sabha election. For BJP, winning the State
means consolidation of its national acceptance and strengthening of its
domestic policies as well as relations with neighbouring countries in the
region.
While Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is
fully engaged in election campaigns, BJP is taking it so seriously as to utilise
all its frontline leaders. Modi himself has visited the State several times and
is conducting massive rallies.
The sudden appearance of the Indian Secular
Front and its alliance with the Congress and the Left has given a new twist to
Bengal fight. ISF’s clout with Muslim voters is a threat to TMC, and more than
that will reinforce Muslim block votes leading to political divisions on
religious identity. It will impact national elections.
The description as “high voltage election” is
most applicable to West Bengal where charges and counter-charges between TMC
and BJP are made every minute.
Similar is the shock given by Sasikala in Tamil
Nadu by announcing her exit from active politics. Here, a single person, not
holding any position, is seen as a potent electoral power capable of igniting
election heat many fold. More exciting are the moves of Rajinikanth entering
and quitting electoral politics.
Supposed to have tremendous vote-catching power by surmise without any test,
he effectively kept all parties waiting with suspense. DMDK and PMK play
low voltage bargain politics giving light and no heat.
Kamal Haasan’s MNM in Tamil Nadu, unable to
fit in the existing alliances, is talking about a Third Front – a proposition that
has no takers. Congress is aware of its weakness before the Dravidian parties
to make any strong demands. All these leave DMK and the AIADMK as the principal
contenders and the BJP as the target of attack as the patron of the latter. The
fight between two regional parties, both having a common origin, has all the
bitterness of a fratricidal war.
Left parties’contradictory stand in Kerala
and West Bengal has become stale by repetition. They have to maintain their
momentum to remain in the field.
April 2021 will witness finals for the series,
but not the end game. Like gamblers,
parties and politicians will come back to the racecourse. ---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature
Alliance)
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