Political
Diary
New Delhi, 3
November 2020
Bihar’s Poll Chakravyu
WHO WILL EMERGE CHANAKYA?
By
Poonam I Kaushish
Lonely lies the head
that wears the crown. And nobody knows this better than Chief Minister Nitish
Kumar who is fighting hard to retain his titles of Bihar’s Chanakya and Sushasan
Babu in a State where politics runs deep, thriving on opportunism, self
promotion and caste remains integral to the political discourse and electoral
positioning.
Till yesterday, it
was a given that 69 year-old Nitish would come back for his fourth term, but
today it seems he will have to claw to retain his position with luck favouring
him. And it is not anti-incumbency and alienation alone which is gnawing him,
he seems to be ambushed by his own inventiveness wherein he is not only being shunned
by foes but friends alike.
Undoubtedly, ally BJP
continues to parrot the JD(U) Chief is the NDA’s Chief Ministerial choice, yet
three things give the supposed bonhomie away. One, Modi has till date not addressed
any joint rallies with Nitish, two, there is no Nitish on Modi’s posters and
the Prime Minister has per se neither
reproached nor distanced himself from LJP’s Chirag Paswan pledging his ‘heart’
to Modi even as he puts up candidates against Nitish.
Perhaps the reason
why savvy gentleman Nitish is rattled and beginning to lose his cool at rallies,
wondering whether the BJP will stick to its pledge or dump him if the JD(U)’s electoral numbers don’t add up. Given
that there doesn’t seem to be much love between the two wary allies. His personalised
attacks on Lalu and Tejashawi are uncharacteristic of his unflappable
demeanour.
Recall, in 2013 the
JD(U) ended its 17 year alliance as part of the NDA when Modi was declared the
Prime Ministerial candidate. Earlier too, Nitish had cancelled a dinner for the
BJP because poster showed then-Gujarat Chief Minister Modi’s largesse for the
Kosi flood-affected. Only to reunite in 2017 when Nitish walked out of
RJD-Congress’s Mahagadhbandhan and
formed the Government with BJP.
Besides after 15
years in the Chief Ministerial gaddi this
time round Nitish seems to receiving end who has lost contact with the ordinary
voter, not the master of ceremonies. Indeed a spectacular slide from being
feted as the champion of Bihar’s Turnaround Success to being dubbed the Old
Guard who is encumbering Gen Next to rewrite a new script.
Forgotten is that the
JD(U) restored law and order, empowered women and Mahadalits, built roads,
bridges, provided electricity, water and cycles to girls. Succinctly, issues
Nitish has already encashed in three polls. With a less than 20% vote share the
Scheduled and backward castes discontent is now born of insufficient
empowerment.
There is a clamour
for badlav, one that many perceive
Nitish is incapable of delivering. Specially, against the backdrop of the
migrant crisis that has sharpened economic distress and pandemic handling. Having raised aspirational
levels, Sushasan Babu seems to be
faltering in engaging and addressing youngsters’ ambitions and key issues like rozgar. Bihar is falling behind in the rafter of development, is the common
refrain.
But all is not lost.
Fear of return of Lalu “Jungle raj by his
Yuvraj” Tejashwi along-with the TINA factor (there is no alternative) has
tempered criticism against Nitish. Alongside parivartan, one also needs a modicum of trust and reassurance which
Nitish embodies. Ironically, the section which seems to be holding fast to him
are mostly upper castes whose loyalty lies with Modi.
The BJP with its
well-oiled Party machinery and backed by the organization’s powerhouse RSS is upbeat.
On two scores. First, Nitish’s popularity is on the wane. Pollsters point the
JD(U) Chief’s ratings to be hovering between 35%-40% which is the right time
for the Saffronites to strike and explore a future without him dragging them
down.
Secondly, over the
last 15 years when Mandal politics steered the State, the BJP used Nitish to
gain legitimacy in the Mandal ecosystem but now Modi-Shah realize he has
outlived his utility for the Hindutva brigade. It comes as no surprise that the
BJP continues to play footsie with LJP’s Chirag by using him to target JD(U)
candidates. Keen to acquire power it on its own steam it hopes for a bigger
tally than JD(U).
The RJD’s 31-year-old
10th class dropout-cricketer-turned neta Tejashwi, leader of the Opposition Mahagadbandhan comprising Congress, CPI, CPM, and some smaller Parties
is defying pre-poll odds and putting up a stiff contest, despite his detractors
saying he lacks political shrewdness. Issues raised by him seem to be setting the
agenda of debate. Ambitious and articulate the RJD heir has not only vanquished
his siblings in the family turf war but also learned some political tricks from
his father and has got under Nitish’s skin.
Sensing an
opportunity, he is quickly moving to neutralise his opponents by connecting
with the masses specially the four crores young voters by being jocular,
voicing catchy slogans and speaking in
local dialect. “This election is being fought on ‘kamai, padhai and dawai”, he asserts. His promise of 10 lakh jobs
seems to have caught the imagination of the youth who throng to his rallies
though he has nothing much to show as his achievements as Dy Chief Minister
from 2015-17.
However, he faces
numerous challenges and has a lot to prove. His biggest encumbrance is the jungle raj tag and anarchy appended to
the RJD. His absence from Bihar during
the migrant crisis is embarrassing. Consequently, he is trying to create a new
social base of job seekers alongside Lalu’s MY social base and gain their
confidence.
Ram Vilas Paswan's
death may have taken the sting out of the attack his 37-year old Bollywood
one-film star son and head of the LJP Chirag Paswan has unleashed against
Nitish. Yet he seems to have come into his own and is at best, making a play at
defeating Nitish on the coattails of Dalits
who comprise over 17% of the population and could be one of the game-changers. Chirag
I also giving cover to the BJP to emerge with the maximum seats by eating into
JD(U) votes.
Under pressure from
the JD(U), the BJP has distanced itself from LJP’s dubious game of backing its
candidates while fielding its own against JD(U). It has tepidly publicly chastised Chirag,
even though its Party workers are hooting for LJP candidates thereby confusing
voters by keeping one foot in the NDA and another out.
Will this election be
Bihar’s Chanakya’s nemesis? Will the Saffron
lotus finally bloom in Bihar? Will young Tejashwi and Chirag be able to fill
the big shoes of their fathers Lalu and Paswan? Both are long standing friends
and are now busy running rings around Nitish even as BJP keeps Nitish on
tenderhooks.
Pertinently, at the root of all, is the
State’s caste politics whereby its dynamics will be the underpinning of
electoral choices of Parties, drawing both from old positions and new
calculations tracing back to the Mandal politics of the late-1980s and the
ensuing social-engineering experiments.
While Nitish’s politics is anchored on its
political appeal towards the most backward classes (a loose term for non-Yadav
OBCs) and Mahadalits, Tejashawi is banking on the Yadav-Muslim combine and
Chirag on Paswans. The BJP, on its upper caste base now stronger than before.
Undoubtedly, the Bihar election could well be the harbinger of
change, nationally. With half of India’s population in the 18-35 age bracket
the aspirational levels of a young democracy has changed dramatically. No
longer are old clichés, Styrofoam promises and histrionics palatable. All
demand an Obama-like “Yes we can” politics.
However it will not be roses all the way. In an age of 24/7 digital
world of post-truth and post-ideology politicking, there is the stirrings of
new politics. An intent generation is unlikely to remain content in a scenario
where a new incumbent Chief Minister create jobs or contain rural distress. In
sum, the Bihar poll has ignited a new chingari
where everything is up in the air and thrown up new possibilities. ----
INFA
(Copyright,
India News and Feature Alliance)
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