SPECIAL ARTICLE
New Delhi, 9 August 2007
Emergency in Pakistan?
IS IT HEADING FOR A
CIVIL WAR?
By Sreedhar
Amidst reports that the Pakistan Government is contemplating
imposing a state of emergency as recommended by 8 corp. commanders of the Pakistan army
to President General Musharraf, many observers feel that the country is heading
for a civil war. A worried US
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice even called up Musharraf early this
morning, after 2am, and spoke to him for over 15 minutes, though there was no
information of what they talked.
In fact, the developments in Pakistan from the beginning of
this year is making many analysts take a dim view of the country and its future
is once again being described as a ‘failed state’ and ‘failing state’.
At one level, the President started a dialogue with exiled political
leaders like Benazir Bhutto. The meeting between General Musharraf and Benazir
in Abu Dhabi under the watchful eye of Abu Dhabi’s ruler seems
to have settled the issue in favour of Benazir. According to Pakistani media
reports, reportedly Benazir agreed in principle to support another Presidential
term for Musharraf and work towards mobilizing support at the grass roots
level. No matter that Benazir has denied this.
Questionably, can a leader who is away from his/her people
for almost a decade, do any magic? On two counts. One, sustain her hold over
the masses. Two, can she shore up the dwindling popularity of General Musharraf.
Already, Benazir’s political opponent Nawaz Sharif has declared
his opposition to the working relationship between Benazir and Musharraf. He
intends to return to Islamabad
and start an agitation against the President. Plainly, one can expect street
battles between the two rival groups.
At another level, the radical Islamic groups are becoming
active. The story of Lal Masjid seems to have not ended. Both Osama bin Laden
and his deputy al-Zawahari, have not only publicly endorsed the Lal Masjid
revolt against Musharraf’s Government but have also declared that the people
who were killed were martyrs. According to Pakistani official estimates there
are about 600 suicide bombers ready to attack Mushararf and his Government and
the people who support him.
The Lashkar-e-Toiba Chief Hafiz Saeed in a statement,
published on Monday last (6 August) stated, “Unfortunately our rulers are
making Pakistan’s armed forces to commit the same mistakes that they had
committed in East Pakistan… the situation is becoming critical with every
passing day”. In this context one may recall that the LeT was one of the
original signatories to the declaration of the al Qaida in 1998 for the
establishment of an International Islamic Front against the USA, Israel and their allies.
All this indicates that the Islamic radical groups are
organizing themselves against President Musharraf’s policies. The Azzam
al-Amriki video, currently staying in Pakistan,
reiterated the earlier demand of the al-Qaida Chief Osama bin Laden that
foreign forces should with draw from Muslim countries like Iraq and Pakistan. Recall, the Islamic
radicals, have scrapped the peace agreement they signed in 2006 and in the last
one month alone, more than 200 people have been killed and almost 400 injured
in attacks by these groups. Clearly, they seem to be preparing themselves to
fight Musharraf.
That apart, the US and its allies are mounting
pressure on the General to further intensify the Pakistan Army attacks on the Islamic
radicals. In fact, the US President George Bush called Musharraf on Sunday last
(5 August), and unequivocally stated that US intelligence agencies had mounting
evidence about the increased activity of the al-Qaida and the Taliban all along
the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and in Baluchistan. It is still not clear whether the US President talked in terms of extending
further support to Musharraf linked to the action against the terrorists
operating from Pakistan.
Be that as it may, Islamabad
has renewed its efforts in cracking down on radical Islamic groups within the
country. According to Pakistani media reports, the armed forces have begun
attacks on militant safe houses in places like Waziristan.
More. The US has also asked Pakistan to nab
all the drug syndicate members like Dawood Ibrahim as they are providing
finances for the al-Qaida to continue its operations.
Musharraf is in a quandary. On the one hand the external
pressures are mounting and on the other hand the radicals are sharpening their
attacks. Their leadership is today asking for badla (revenge) against the General for his pro-US tilt. Not only
that. Adding to the confusion, the Opposition political parties are organizing
themselves demanding the restoration of democracy. The reinstatement of the dismissed
Chief Justice of the Supreme Court had added further momentum to the Opposition
parties. Notwithstanding the fact, that parleys are on to restore some
rapprochement between the judiciary and the President, things look dicey at this
point.
Bluntly, one can identify four broad groups which are working
at cross purposes in Pakistan
today: First, the Armed Forces under Gen. Musharraf are trying desperately to
keep their predominance in the polity. Second, the radical Islamic groups, once
patronized by the Establishment in Islamabad
are now being targeted by the army: and the former wants to reassert their
position. Third, the civil society is asking for restoration of normal
political activity. Fourth, the US
feels that it has been led up the garden path all these years by Islamabad about the terrorists and other American
adversaries who have found safe havens in Pakistan.
Each of these groups is trying to find means to capture
power in Islamabad.
The US is looking for an
amenable Government in Islamabad
which will meet its strategic goals. What will be the flash point to create
mayhem in the streets of Pakistan
is not known as yet. But many observers feel that the way things are happening
in the country, that moment is not far.
The immediate question that arises is: How should India respond to these developments in Pakistan? And
if a civil war like situation unfolds there, what are New Delhi’s options? The mandarins in South
Block are sharply divided on the developments in Pakistan. One section argues that
the armed forces in Pakistan
are firmly entrenched in power; and if not Gen. Musharraf another General will
take charge of the situation.
Another section avers that “Mr. Survival”, Gen. Musharraf,
will somehow manage a deal with the political parties like the PPP and the PML
and continue in power. The third group feels that the radical Islamic groups could
usurp power from the Army, given the fact that they enjoy considerable amount
of sympathy from the armed forces. A small group is of the view that another
division of Pakistan seems to be imminent.
In the ultimate, whatever may be the outcome of the ongoing
power tussle, a close monitoring of Pakistan is necessary. Intelligence must be
strengthened to keep sharp vigil. ----- INFA
(Copyright India News and Feature
Alliance)
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