Spotlight
New Delhi, 8 February, 2020
Decoding Delhi Elections!
By Dr. D.K. Giri
Delhi state
elections draw ample attention as it is the national capital and political
nerve centre of the country. That is perhaps why three major parties are
battling it out to gain power - the incumbent AAP government, BJP and INC. The
latter two national parties have odd alliances with smaller parties. In absence
of any opinion polls, it is hard to confidently predict the results; also as
Indian electorate can throw surprises. One can only pontificate vis-a-vis the
debates and reporting by TV channels.
The buzz
so far is that AAP will sail through with a reduced margin. They may drop down
from 67 to 50, but a clear majority to reclaim the government formation. Indian
National Congress may, backed by the minority voters may got up to 7 seats,
although this figure is contestable. They may have no seats again or just one
or two. BJP may get up to 20 seats.
Analysing
the bases of such prediction, AAP will retain the majority for at least 5
reasons. One, AAP leadership has managed to avoid any controversy. To surprise
of many an observer, AAP Chief Arvind Kejriwal did not speak much, did not
organise press conferences. He perhaps followed the Irish Playwright Oliver
Goldsmith who had famously said, “Ask me no questions, and I will tell you no
lies”. Second, the leadership remained free of scandals. Any sniff of scandal,
he removed the person involved. Third, he quietly worked for people after a
round of power skirmish with the Centre. Fourth, AAP was smart in advertising
their ‘good’ work, and shifting the blame to the Centre for any mess created,
such as the air pollution. Kejriwal blamed both Haryana and Punjab ruled by BJP
and INC respectively for polluting Delhi by stubble burning. Fifth were the
freebies like free bus ride for females, free electricity, and water etc. These
doles are really the front-runners in AAP’s campaign as vote-catchers inasmuch as
Delhites were not given any such concessions in the past. Then there are
definite tangible improvements in the government schools, and much-vaunted
Mohalla Clinics, despite the shrill
criticism of their pompous presentation contrary to what is on the ground. All
in all, AAP seems to smooth-sail this election.
Indian
National Congress seems to be a non-starter. Their lethargic and non-confident
approach beggars any comprehension. BJP runs the central government, AAP has
Delhi government, INC is out of Delhi Assembly having ruled for 15 consecutive
years until AAP tipped them over the edge. They were the last to announce the
list of candidates, giving them least time to campaign. In fact, INC should
have started 3 months back. Again, Congress campaign is harking back to Sheila
Dixit era. But, the fact that she lost so badly may not evoke much sympathy.
INC should have built a robust new political platform for Delhi, on law and
order, dealing with the students’ grievances, air and sanitation,, water
logging, reversing the stress migration of poor into the city, and so on.
Congress refuses to learn any lesson.
On BJP
strategy, one is cut to the quick in deciphering it. Their election plank, be
it the states or the centre, or even local government, remains the same;
polarise the electorate between Hindus and the rest on muscular Hindutva
nationalism and a strong decisive leadership in Prime Minister Narendra Modi
backed by a equally strong Home Minister. To BJP’s miscalculation, they did not
anticipate such a strong reaction and resistance to CAA-NPR-NRC. They
encountered no resistance to defanging of Article 370, abolition of Triple
Talaq, or t0 the verdict on construction of Ram Temple. But the country-wide
reaction against CAA took them by surprise. However, they are trying to make
the best of the bad situation prevailing in the capital. Police action in both
JNU and Jamia has been riled by public across the political spectrum. The
protests continuing in Shaheen Bagh is not helping BJP’s image either. People
are simply wondering about BJP’s non-action in talking to or taming the
protesters. BJP is hoping that Shaheen Bagh may lead to some polarisation in their
favour. That is why, true or false, motives and machinations of the vested
interest are attributed to the protesters who are dubbed as anti-Law and thereby
anti-national.
It is true
that when a protest continues so long with the same vigour and intensity,
people may doubt the capacity of common women at the vanguard of the protest to
sustain on their own. But, Shaheen Bagh may cut both ways, it may help BJP as
people seem upset with the protest, with no end in sight; at the same time,
they may question central government’s inaction in clearing the protesters
through dialogue or detention. At the end of the day, Saheen Bagh may deliver
for BJP and they may get about 40 seats if there are undercurrents against the
protests as some observers claim.
Delhi
voters are cosmopolitan and rational in their outlook. They do not vote
emotionally as was seen in the victories of Congress even after the horrendous
riots in 1984. Like Noah Harari author of ‘Sapiens’ suggested, people are now
divided in two types of outlook – national and global, by extension, national
and local. So who dares Delhites, nationalists or localites?---INFA
(Copyright,
India News & Feature Alliance)
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