Round The
World
New Delhi, 5 April 2019
US-China Rivalry
INDIA’S KEY STAKES
By Dr. D.K. Giri
(Prof. International Politics, JMI)
The rivalry between the
US and China should intensify until one of them, mainly the latter concurs in the
US position as sole super power, that it has been since the disintegration of
the Soviet Union. The rivalry manifests currently as trade war, US imposing
taxes on Chinese products, sanctions etc., but it runs much deeper covering
many other facets. India has a lot at stake in the US-China competition, and
unless, it plays its cards well, it may lose heavier than China, or USA.
I intend to adumbrate
India’s approach to US-China turf war, as evidently, New Delhi’s China policy
appears to be muddled. My contention, which I have elaborated in this column in
last two weeks, in two consecutive pieces, is that Nehru fumbled on China, made
big mistakes for which India has to face serious negative consequences. Worse,
the NDA governments principally the present one, now facing elections, could
not correct the fault lines although it claimed to undergo a radical departure
from the Nehruvian approach both in domestic and foreign policies.
How should India
redraw her strategy vis-a-vis China, and especially in the light of US-China
contest for world supremacy? Before that, we should unravel the rivalry;
identify its nature, dimensions etc.
From the China
watchers in USA, it is understood that the US would need China to be a market
based economy, which is open to competition. It should also facilitate free
trade under WTO rules. The second big concern of USA is to protect its
intellectual property from theft and forced transfer by China. The Trump
administration has made it crystal clear that, unless these two issues are
addressed by Beijing sooner than later, there will be a bigger trade war to the
detriment of China. So Beijing can no longer soft-pedal these issues.
Evidently, China is
attempting to steal intellectual property in order to become a leader in the
areas of space technology, artificial intelligence, Robotics and quantum
computing. China wants to take over USA and India in software in the foregoing
four areas. The United States has detected the threat and is drastically
re-adjusting its China strategy to address it. Is India doing the same? One is
not sure.
On global expansion,
China is trying to outmanoeuvre US through its ambitious Silk Road through
Italy to Europe, through Pakistan to Central and South Asia, and through
Bangladesh to South-East Asia. All three countries targeted by China are the
failed States and are vulnerable to Chinese economic power and domination. But
the European Union, at the behest of the US or otherwise, is trying to dissuade
its member-State Italy from falling into the Chinese trap. They are
contemplating vetoing Italy’s joining the Silk Road.
Why has India not
done such a thing to pull two SAARC members out of Beijing’s grasp? India has
failed to wheedle Bangladesh out of falling into Chinese debt trap. New Delhi
has declared Pakistan as its sworn, incorrigible enemy, while it is quiet on China’s
aggressive agenda. The current government found Pakistan-bashing easier than
taking on China.
True that Pakistan’s
nefarious intentions and actions have to be rebuffed with a multi-pronged
retaliation. Yet, we could pause a bit and explore if New Delhi daring China
would also hold Pakistan back. Pakistan on its own is incapable of inflicting
any damage on India. Islamabad was earlier using dubiously the US support to foment
trouble in India, now it is doing so openly with backing from Beijing.
Talking of the
economic warfare, the key to Beijing’s internationalism, the US is not
interested in low cost manufacturing that boosted Chinese economy, and as the
FDI to China depletes, New Delhi should quickly step in to replace China as the
manufacturing hub of the world. India enjoys the same comparative demographic
and labour advantage as China did. New Delhi is lagging instead of adopting an
aggressive posturing on this.
The US has its focus on
space and military superiority using automated planes, ships, submarines, tanks
and drones etc. The US thinks that it is unbeatable in these areas, and it can
control the space better than anyone, and can prevent the militarisation of the
space. India is catching up slowly after it has launched its satellite this
month. It is now one of the four world powers in space technology, USA, Russia,
China and India. Yet, admittedly, it has a long way to compete with other three
in this field.
China is an
authoritarian State, suppressing any form of dissent. It believes that its
command economy is better managed than those of USA and India who facilitate
free market in a democratic political structure. China also believes that its
quasi-police State with state control of politics and economy is more conducive
to growth and governance. Beijing wishes to advocate its model of growth as
better than those of USA and India, and other countries believing in freedom of
speech, free enterprise etc. It has built a state capitalist economy, and the
next stage, according to Marx, is imperialism, and China is ostensibly trying
to move to the next stage. In its quest for the status of world power, China
sees India backed by the US as major threat. Beijing competes with Washington
and sees New Delhi as a ‘thorn in the flesh’.
Strangely, New Delhi
fails to recognise the Chinese threat and is falling into Chinese trap. New
Delhi is not forcing a permanent resolution of the boarder conflicts with China
which keeps racking it up to justify conflicts and continued antagonism. India is
likely to concede its edge in software as it is not building the embedded
technology driven by artificial intelligence. New Delhi must do all it can to
retain the market edge it possesses internationally. It must identify the areas
which China is focusing to beat India.
Beijing is wanting to
bleed India by supporting her neighbours – Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh,
Nepal, Maldives, Myanmar and even Bhutan. It is trying to drive a wedge between
India and US, so that the latter does not build India as a counter-weight in
its Asia strategy. New Delhi failed to see this during Nehru era, and even now.
Narendra Modi took a non-confrontational approach to China, which weakens
India. One is not sure if South Block is aware of China’s designs on India, or
is taking an ostrich-like attitude.
To be sure, if China
becomes stronger, neutralises US vis-a-vis India, it would make India a subservient
State. It has already sounded its bugle on India. It claims Arunchal Pradesh, a
large State of India in the North-East. It has said it would not accept the
next Dalai Lama from India. There are many more contentious bilateral issues
China raises off and on, in addition to encircling India, having bought-into
her neighbours.
My strong contention
is India has earned Chinese antagonism forever by sheltering Tibetan leadership
and Dalai Lama. Why is it still wanting to play the balancing-game which made
us the loser in the past and will do so in future? Why is India avoiding deeper
military cooperation with the US and pursuing a go-alone strategy? Why is it
taking one step forward and two steps backward towards China? These are the
questions the present government must answer in the election time, not seek a
mandate on Pulwama alone, and purely an anti-Pakistan stance. ---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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