Economic Highlights
New Delhi, 25 March 2019
Jobs
& Farm Data
CAN CONG
GAIN FROM THESE?
By
Shivaji Sarkar
India’s economic data is puzzling.
Electorate preferences may not be static. Issues are there but the Opposition
is unable to articulate these and the ruling combine is carrying out a
vociferous campaign to project itself.
It is not an easy election for
the voters, irrespective who the parties give or deny tickets. They are toying
between emotions and realities. They are wondering whether they should vote for
emotions or as per the problems they are facing. The choice is not easy. There
is a dynamic person as Prime Minister in Narendra Modi, who devastates all Opposition
logic and more so gets a fillip with the possible Nirav Modi extradition.
But there is also an emerging
leadership not so much in the ‘mahagathbandhan’
of Opposition parties but in the gradual rise of the Congress and the two
siblings Priyanka Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi – soft new faces of Indian politics.
They are trying to touch the core with old Congress linkages of regions, castes
and communities.
Both are nudging the voters to
rethink and have a look at financial, jobs and other statistics. They are
marching on gradual rise of Congress votes across India. The Congress now has a
government or is part of the government in five States--Punjab, Karnataka, Madhya
Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh--with 21 per cent of the population, up
from two States with 7 per cent population in 2017.
The BJP leaders are watching
every step of these two Congress leaders. They feel that Congress has only to
gain in major states like Uttar Pradesh, an old Congress bastion, where it
still has its sympathisers. Somewhere there is also an apprehension that many
figures and Priyanka’s “Ganga boat-yatra” through erstwhile Congress bastion,
may impact the voters’ minds.
Congress has two major symbolic
gains. Amrita Pandey, who is BJP UP President’s daughter-in-law joins Priyanka
Gandhi in Varanasi, a few days after joining of Manish Khanduri, son of
Uttrakhand BJP leader BC Khanduri. Says Amrita: “I
decided to join the Congress as the future belongs to it”. She accused the BJP
governments at the Centre and in UP of doing precious little for the farmers,
youths and other deprived sections of the society.
Amrita’s is the
narrative of the Congress. Other Opposition parties being fiefdom of families
are less into studying statistics. But Congress is gradually harping on to it.
So far, the onslaught is soft but one that is difficult to ignore.
The job data is
skewed and even the debts of the government and supposedly unstated figures in
the Budget, is being tried to be played up. An emotionally-choked campaign
trail, post-Pulwama, created by BJP is apparently covering these up.
The figures,
however, are telling and much of it has come from draft reports of
parliamentary committees, NSSO and CAG. On issues of defence too, the handling
of the situation in parliamentary committee has not been deft. The government
is careful not to fall into the trap raising issues of nationalistic interests.
The CAG has
pointed out to a huge-off-budget financing of about Rs 4 lakh crore in 2016-17.
It says it could pose fiscal risk in the long term in case the entity that
raises the funds fails to meet debt servicing.
The jobs data
row has led to quitting by top statisticians. As official figures of NSSO,
considered reliable, were not available, not so firm figures of a private
organisation, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt. Ltd. (CMIE), got
credence. The CMIE says around 31 million people are unemployed, the highest
since October 2016.
There are also
figures of male (earlier it were female) workforce reduction. The NSSO’s
periodic labour force survey 2017-18 shows males account for 28.6 crore
employed. Since 1993-94 when the male workforce was 21.9 crore it swelled to
30.4 crore in 2011-12. This indicates that fewer male were employed in 2017-18.
It reduced even in rural areas.
In India, the unemployment rate
measures the number of people actively looking for a job has been updated only
this March. It says actual unemployment is 6.1 per cent up from 3.41 in
December, 2014. The World Bank reported it in its latest report. Overall,
labour force participation dropped in 2017.
Such figures
always discomfort a government, particularly when elections are around. The
government is coming out with figures of MUDRA loans. The banks, however, find
these adding to the NPAs and are reluctant to proffer it.
Is there a
discontent? Apparently, it is not being noticed. Nobody is talking about it.
The charisma of BJP leadership is covering it up. These also can be deceptive.
The voter is silent. It does not mean people are not aware of their problems.
The cash dole,
once a strict no-go of the BJP, of Rs 6,000 a year to farmers is a mixed bag.
Western UP and Maharashtra farmers want that the sugar mills should not sit
over their about Rs 25,000 crore dues and pay it. This they consider is
reneging on the promise of doubling their income. No one, however, denies that
the cash dole is a relief post-demonetisation.
So is the
Congress connecting with the rural mass? It is trying but its worker base is
weak and so is the reach. Wherever possible, it is sending messages or holding
on to people’s issues. The cow is holy for BJP and is not so unholy for
Congress, SP or BSP. Cow vigilantism and check on smuggling to Bangladesh has
added to the woes of farmers in UP and many other places. It has swelled the
stray cattle population. In hordes, they rummage crops resulting in a clash
between the cattle and the rural populace. It disturbs societal harmony too.
The Opposition
is silently carrying out a campaign of disrespecting “gau-mata” and cruelty to it and carrying out an emotional campaign
against the BJP, which had promised to protect the cow. The castes that used to collect and dispose of
the carcasses are refraining from doing so, further widening social tensions.
The rice-growing
areas are facing another problem. As rupee appreciates and the government takes
its credit, it has slumped rice exports. Rising prices are affecting Indian
sales to Africa. It may soon become a farm distress issue.
The General election
is not bereft of issues. The economic issues are stark. Changing political
scenario can make a difference. It only points to an all-out impending battle.
The churning would help reshape the future.---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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