Round The World

New Delhi, 2 August, 2017

Doklam Face-Off Continues

WAR RHETORIC, BUT UNLIKELY

 By Prof. D. K. Giri

(Visiting Prof, International Politics, JMI) 

The Doklam stand-off at the India-China-Bhutan tri-junction which began in mid-June seems to be escalating into a full-scale war. Experts believe that a conflict is imminent between India and China unless the face-off is de-escalated through talks.

China demands withdrawal of troops before any talks begin. India says both forces should pull-back and status quo ante at the tri-junction restored then only talks could start for a long-term solution of border disputes. Neither side is prepared to accommodate the others request.  Consequently, the stalemate continues, pushing both countries to the brink of war.

Yet war speculations, albeit a limited one, continue to pour in. Beijing cannot roll back as it would mean loss of image of being the biggest regional power and an aspiring world super power. India will not pull out unilaterally lest it should be seen as a lesser power than China, unable or unwilling to defend its friends and allies.

Two, for Beijing it means giving up part of its territory on which it has bonafide claim for negotiation. For New Delhi even as it defends Bhutan’s territorial claims, to let China build a road through Doklam entails serious security risks The road would bring China close to ‘Chicken Neck’ which connects India to its eight North-eastern States. New Delhi, can never allow this.

How does one resolve the impasse? Diplomacy, war or both? The jury is still out.

Pertinently, Beijing was building a road to Bhutan’s Zompleri military base through Doklam which is currently disputed by Beijing and Thimpu. India supports Bhutan’s claim over this plateau. China contends that as per the 1890 Border Settlement Agreement between China and Imperial Britain, Doklam belongs to it. Thimpu disputes the claim.

India, as Bhutan’s closest ally with a stake in the area’s geo-politics backs Thimpu. New Delhi also invokes Beijing’s position in 1955 and the 2012 agreement. Recall, in 1955 , then Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai at the famous Bandung Conference, said, “with some of our neighbouring countries, we have not yet fixed our border lines and are ready to do so. But, before such negotiations can be held, we are willing to maintain the present situation by acknowledging that these parts of our border are parts which are undetermined.

“We will restrain our Government and people from crossing even one step across our border (and) if such things do happen we (would) admit our mistakes. As to the determination of common borders which we will be undertaking with our neighbouring countries, we shall use only peaceful means and we shall not permit any other kind of method. In no case, shall we change that.”

Obviously, Beijing has either forgotten Zhou Enlai’s historic statement or is conveniently ignoring it to undertake its territorial expansionism. Similarly, in 2012, India and China agreed that all disputed border areas will be re-determined through negotiation.

Clearly, Beijing has violated these commitments and continues to commit violations in a calculated way. But it seems to have miscalculated this time. Evidently, China thought of clandestinely constructing the road as Bhutan would not have the gall to resist.

It did not anticipate a strong reaction from New Delhi who, on Bhutan’s request stepped in and stopped the construction work, mobilized its forces to prevent Chinese incursion. Notwithstanding, in the past there have been incursion by Chinese grazers, which Bhutan ignored but construction of  a road up to the Bhutanese border is unacceptable.

Many argue that a limited military confrontation to end the deadlock is possible as a diplomatic solution is not in sight. True, NSA Ajit Doval’s visit to Beijing  apparently seems to have thawed the stand-off resulting in a flurry of diplomatic exchanges between New Delhi and Beijing centered around preparations for the BRICS summit in Xiamen early September.

However, the stand-off is unlikely to subside without both sides securing face-saving withdrawal of their respective troops. Equally, a military conflict is unlikely due to five reasons. One, there have been stand-offs in 1987 in Arunachal’s Sumdorong Chu Valley which was resolved after six years through an agreement to ensure peace along the LAC. That too after heavy posturing by both sides, but eventually they backed-off and talked.

Two, China’s strength is mainly its economy built through trade and is the second largest in the world. It has huge trade deficits in its favour with many countries, $346 billion with the US and $46.6 billion with India. In the trade negotiation with Washington last week, Beijing was strongly snubbed by US negotiators for dumping cheap steel into America thereby creating a huge trade deficit against it, rattling China.

Likewise, Beijing would not like to lose any part of the Indian market. Although Indians might go for cheaper Chinese goods, in case of war between the two countries, China should not underestimate the surges of nationalism and mass boycott of Chinese goods. This would hit China below its belt. Beijing will not risk such a counter action.

Three, Beijing might be proving the Marxian axiomatic prognosis that the next stage of capitalism is imperialism. But, they should also heed the foreign policy dictum that pragmatism is the name of the game. Whilst China tries to encircle India by penetrating into its neighbouhood, New Delhi is squeezing Beijing internationally through its strategic partnerships with big powers Beijing would have to be mindful of - United States, Japan, Israel, Chinese antagonists in South East Asia, Mongolia, countries of European Union etc.

Four, both countries are nuclear powers. There are no winners in a nuclear war, only losers. In desperation, nuclear countries can use the most disastrous earth-destroying nuclear weapons in a war situation. China is heavily wary of a tiny country like North Korea because of latter’s nuclear arsenal. So, it might not mess with India. Five, the whole world will like to prevent a war between the two most populous countries in the world and the biggest markets.

Undeniably, one is not sure of any occurrence in world politics including bilateral relations. Anything is possible, even war. At any rate, India needs to recognize China as the biggest threat to its security and growth. The big power play between New Delhi and Beijing will continue for long in the Asian theatre.

India needs to match China in economy and military strength. The only decisive edge New Delhi has over Beijing is diplomacy as it is a democracy and not perceived by any as an aggressor country. Hence, until India is an equal power, in theory, to China it has to use its diplomatic prowess to contain and neutralize its neigbour.

Importantly, this is the biggest foreign policy challenge facing the NDA Government. Can Modi use his so-called ‘charm-offensive’ to meet this? Will the conservative foreign policy establishment support the Prime Minister  effectively? Are Modi and Sushma Swaraj up to it? We need to watch the story as it unfolds. ----- INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)