Political Diary

New Delhi, 1 August 2017

Ghar Wapasi

NITISH BACK IN BJP BED

By Poonam I Kaushish

Na na karte pyar tumhe se kar baithe, karna tha inkar magar ikarar tumhe se kar bathe. This Bollywood song could well be the tune JD(U)’s Nitish hummed as he swooned in to old ally BJP’s arms. A bitter-sweet ghar wapasi!

The writing was on the wall in 2015. In fact, bets were placed how soon the ruling Nitish-Lalu-Congress Mahagadhbandhan in Bihar would break given that the two protagonists though identical in political upbringing were unlike in demeanour and track record of governance: Nitish’s development vs. Lalu’s Jungle raj.

By forcing his two ladlas in Nitish’s Cabinet controlling eight Ministries and a daughter into the Rajya Sabha, Lalu made plain his intention of perpetuating his dynasty. Wherein, governance became increasing untenable being pulled in various directions akin to a kingless regime infested by many kings! It was only a matter of time. The corruption cases against Lalu’s son and Dy Chief Minister Tejashwi was the final nail in the coffin.

In many ways the ‘midnight’ drama has bloodless coup pasted all over it, for the swiftness with which it unfolded underscores it was in the irons for sometime. Scripted in New Delhi it was implemented in Patna with only a few BJP and JD(U) senior leaders privy to the developments. The Bihar Chief Minister and Prime Minister Modi were in constant touch with each other via mediators. Reportedly, post President Kovind’s swearing-in Nitish had a 'secret' meeting with Jaitley, parallely Sushil Modi was in touch with Amit Shah.

Clearly, the  Mahagatbandhan’s break-up will have far reaching implications for the BJP-led NDA and disarrayed Opposition Parties. The only beneficiary of the Bihar July 2017 saga is the BJP. For Modi he kills two birds with one stone, gets a foothold in Bihar and defuses Nitish’s ambition as joint Opposition candidate for Bharat’s Gaddi in 2019.

Also, Nitish would serve as the BJP’s latest poster boy for “sewa” highlighting a “corrupt” Opposition all for “mewa”. From Lalu’s family accretion wealth to Mamata’s Narada–Sarada scams, DMK’s 2G et al.

Ironically, those who have worked with Modi and Nitish swear that both share many common traits. Both are ruthless yet flexible, meticulous, honest, hardworking and come from humble backgrounds. In their respective settings, both are often accused of being “arrogant and authoritative”. Their politics may diverge but the twain meeting needs to be watched.

Predictably, the cloak-and-dagger manoeuvres by Nitish left the Congress-led Opposition stunned. Left high and dry it has left Opposition’s unity in tatters and raises questions over the Congress’s ability to counter the Saffron Party in the 2019 general elections.

For losing another large and politically important state like Bihar after UP is a huge setback as Sonia was working overtime to forge a grand alliance, read ‘mythical entity’ at the national level on the Bihar experiment to take on the ‘communal’ BJP.

Importantly, the Congress-led Opposition would now have to tighten its belt for 2019 sans its ‘cleanest’ leader who could have emerged as its mascot. Thereby, raising a question mark on a dis-spirited rank and file on how to move forward and stop the Modi juggernaut? As it stands the BJP is in power in 17 of 29 States.

The possibility of Rahul Gandhi as a dependable alternative in 2019 is becoming bleaker given that even after over a decade he has still not learnt the ropes of politics, politicking and political timing. Senior Congress leaders complain that he twiddled his thumbs even after he was warned of  Nitish-Modi bonhomie. Not a few, view Bihar as good riddance of Rahul.

True, Nitish had attempted to build a new image after bedding BJP for 17 years by shouting for a Sangh Mukt Bharat and castigating Modi. But the corrupt escapades of Lalu left him no escape route but to return. Obviously, with the depleted Opposition he went along-with popular thinking that the Modi wave would continue even after two years.

Notwithstanding, his critics accusing him for hopping from one coalition to another, calling him the most opportunistic of turncoat politicians Nitish’s supporters  invoke grand ideological narratives of enjoying a comfort quotient with the Hindutva brigade.

But either which way his return has left the Bihar Chieftain a much weaker ally of the BJP than he was during 2005 to 2013 and cost him his image and credibility. He could be even dispensable and can no longer harbour a national role for himself as he could have in a Congress-led front.

Obversely, both Nitish and Modi are on the same page vis-à-vis development and good governance. The Chief Minister is bound to push again for a special status for Bihar and it won’t be surprising if some of NaMo’s pet schemes get thumbs up success in the State as both New Delhi and Patna are ruled by the same political formation.

Add to this, unlike the BJP with its strong cadre base Nitish's caste group is neither numerous nor as widespread across Bihar. Also, with NaMo’s return he has lost the few Muslim votes he had. Time will tell whether the Mahdalits and Ati Pichhrha remain enamoured with him rather than get saffronised.

Paradoxically, it is to early to write of Lalu.  The renewed JD(U)-BJP ties might stoke a huge political battle with the RJD Chief who feels “cheated” and “betrayed” by Nitish. Lalu and  Parivar would definitely try to derive maximum political capital out of Nitish’s betrayal.

That the 'Grand Alliance' was an uneasy one was palpable soon after the formation of the JD(U)-RJD Government in November 2015. Certainly, Nitish was not only uncomfortable with this arrangement but also unhappy of not getting a free hand in functioning.

Worse, at every step the Chief Minister’s image of being a performing and clean administrator with no dynasty to perpetuate was being badly besmirched by RJD storm troopers with Lalu calling police station chiefs to meet him, resorting to goonda gardi, running a parallel system something which was history during the JD(U)-BJP 2005-2013 rule.

Add to this, Lalu had started reaching out to Mayawati’s BSP and Akhilesh’s  Samajwadi Party's to bolster his own position  which might have caused Nitish additional insecurity. Being a shrewd politician, Lalu knows he has to first fend off his taint and that he cannot fight elections until 2021 till then he had anointed son Tejashwi to keep alive the RJD flame.

Undoubtedly, the JD(U)-BJP revival could well be the harbinger of change, nationally. With half of India’s population in the 18-35 age bracket the aspirational levels of a young democracy has changed dramatically. No longer are old clichés, Styrofoam promises and histrionics palatable. All demand an Obama-like “Yes we can” politics.

However it will not be roses all the way. In an age of 24/7 digital world of post-truth and post-ideology politicking, there is the stirrings of new politics. An intent generation is  unlikely to remain content in a scenario where a Modi-led Government does not create jobs or contain rural distress.

In sum, the Bihar spark has ignited a new chingari and shown there are never any full stops in politics. The Modi-Nitish chemistry will determine the success of the both the Centre and State Government. What gives?  ----- INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

New Delhi

29 July 2017