Events & Issues
New Delhi, 30 November 2016
Digital Revolution
FEAR OF JOBLESS FUTURE?
By Dr.S.Saraswathi
(Former Director, ICSSR, New Delhi)
The World Bank has
recently released a report which underscores the threat awaiting India and other
emerging economies from the onslaught of automation. It says that 69 per cent of jobs in India and 77 per cent in China are under
threat. Bangladesh, Malaysia, Nepal,
and Thailand
are also reported to be in the same boat. The biggest risk is faced by routine
jobs like those of clerks, in which humans can be replaced easily by computer
software.
India’s unemployment, according to the
Census of 2011 increased from 6.8 per cent in 2001 to 9.6 per cent in 2011. The
causes were manifold and not just replacement of men by machines.
There are normally
three levels of workforce – high-skilled, middle-skilled, and low-skilled. The
first requires higher education, problem solving and analytical ability, and
original and critical thinking; the second requires not very high but some amount
of judgement in handling the process; and the third does not require high
educational qualification, but ability to do repetitive work.
Automation is
presently impacting heavily the middle level probably leading to polarisation of the workforce as high-skilled
and low-skilled. It means that highly paid skilled workers like managers,
higher level bureaucrats, and creative talent at one end, and low-paid and menial job workers on the other end may survive the attack of automation on jobs
falling heavily on middle jobs comprising
semi-skilled but routine work not requiring creative talent or
physical labour.
Automation, however,
has become the strategy for development all over the world replacing the
traditional economic path for which India is no
exception. It cannot be killed and the
world has to find ways to mitigate its harmful effects. It is in this context, the Digital India Programme (DIP) launched
in 2015 – a programme that depends essentially on automation - is receiving accelerated thrust from the
Prime Minister. It is an umbrella
programme that covers many ministries and departments.
The DIP is intended to
provide the much needed thrust on nine pillars of growth areas: net and mobile
access and connectivity, e-governance, electronic delivery, information for
all, electronics manufacturing , IT for
jobs, and early harvest programme to be immediately implemented.
DIP started as the
National E-governance Plan (NeGP) launched in 2006. Its emphasis was on
citizen-centric services and it commenced computerisation of records and
services. It aims at transforming the
entire system of public services through the use of information technology in
order to bring about “knowledge economy”.
The programme consists
of three core components - creation of digital infrastructure; delivery of
services digitally; and promotion of digital literacy. Investment of Rs.4.5 lakh crore and jobs for
18 lakh people are among the advantages expected in the short run. The vision is inclusive growth in electronic
services, products, manufacturing, and job opportunities.
DIP is centred on
three key areas – digital infrastructure as a utility to every citizen,
governance and services on demand, and digital empowerment of citizens. Digital
literacy mission is expected to cover 6 crore people.
Fear of job loss on
account of entry of machines to do human work started in the days of Industrial
Revolution. But, the 19th
century witnessed tremendous economic progress with employment creation. In
1920, it was said that machines made idle hands in the West. Lord Keynes coined
the term ‘technological unemployment” in the 1930s. Even some American
presidents were said to be worried over the challenge posed by automation
replacing men. But, these fears were
largely belied and technology led to creation of more jobs than it destroyed.
Today, once again, the
bogey of job loss under the impact of automation is being spread. Automation is
self-controlling unlike mechanisation which requires human aid. The new wave of digital revolution is said to
be threatening skilled workers also.
Contradictory findings are circulated.
The World Economic
Forum looks upon this as the Fourth Industrial Revolution which will affect
millions of jobs over the next 5-10 years. Based on a study in seven cities in India, it found
that over 60 per cent of this is caused by
the impact of “automation,
artificial intelligence, and digital technologies ; nearly 50 per cent
due to globalization and changing consumer perceptions”.
Findings of HfS Research, a US based firm, warns
that IT sector is likely to lose 6.4 lakh “low-skilled” jobs to
automation by 2021 while the loss in the world would be around 1.4 million
jobs! The Philippines,
UK
and US, according to this study, would benefit from the growth of medium and
high-skilled jobs by 2021. However, loss
of jobs on the whole seems to be higher than the gain, the process affecting
the poor more than the better off.
Some scholars picture
this as a “jobless future” as most jobs can be broken into a series of routine
tasks, more and more of which could be done by machines and anticipate an era
of technological unemployment. However, this is dismissed by some scholars as
“Luddite fallacy” - a fallacy of failing to take into account compensation
effects committed by textile workers during the Industrial Revolution who
protested against mechanisation under the leadership of Ned Ludd.
Industrialisation
including automation has so far helped developing countries to narrow down the gap
with developed countries. But in the computer age, automation is likely to
impact negatively as the rate of advancement of different countries widely
varies. According to some economists,
developing countries gain in employment prospects more than on economic growth.
Similar development is
unavoidable within our country. Digital India Programme will not produce equal
effect all over the country. Digital
divide – a problem of economic and social inequality with regard to access to,
use of, or impact of information and communication - is already a real and felt
problem and it is likely to
increase with progressive
automation. The divide will be
multidimensional – between rural and urban India, rich and poor, men and
women, educated and uneducated, young and old and so on. It will widen gaps between different sectors and
enterprises and cut across different demographic groups.
Unless drastic steps
are taken to bridge the gap, we may witness ridiculous scenes like
self-propelling cars running on roads where manual scavenging work also goes
on. As part of reaching UN Sustainable Goals which includes equality, the
government has to strive for universal and affordable access to internet.
The number of internet
users and mobile subscribers are no doubt increasing minute by minute. Statistics on net connectivity varies. The
World Bank data for 2014 gives the figure of internet users in India as 18 per
cent of the population. Mobile phone
has become an essential household article and an indispensable tool for all
kinds of workers everywhere. However, the use to which these sophisticated
instruments are put needs some examination and control.
In the present digital
world, there is no choice but to go ahead with determination and strong political
will to raise human and material resources, and introduce policies and
programmes necessary to end digital divide and march towards Digital India. The
road must lead to progress and not division. Needless to mention, that all
basic services – education and health in particular – must first reach every citizen.---INFA
(Copyright, India
News and Feature Alliance)
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