Events & Issues

New Delhi, 28 September 2016

Uri Attack

PREPARED FOR COUNTER OFFENSIVE?

By Dr P K Vasudeva

The terrorist attack on a military camp in Uri, poses yet another challenge to New Delhi. It has the potential to create a major crisis, even a flashpoint, in the relations between India and Pakistan. The attack, close to the LoC with Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir, on 18 September in the wee hours of the morning, led to the death of 18 soldiers and injuries to many others. It is among the worst ever attacks on the Armed Forces in peacetime. The surprise attack from across the LoC is much like the attack on the Pathankot airbase earlier this year with the help and support of locals. The Army has blamed Jaish-e-Mohammad, which has official support from Pakistan’s ISI. However, Pakistan has denied the charge and as usual, asked for actionable intelligence.

It may be assumed that the attack was intended to provoke a strong Indian response within Kashmir. New Delhi will need to strategise the right response, fully considering the merits, demerits and consequences of its response. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said that the perpetrators of the attack will not go unpunished and Home Minister Rajnath Singh too has spoken of the  will to crush terrorism. A senior BJP leader has said that India should ‘adopt jaw-for-a-tooth’ policy on Pakistan.

While it is not easy to formulate the right response in an emotionally charged atmosphere with even public opinion clamouring for the strongest action and punishment, immediate retaliation is difficult. A military response is the easiest to think of in the form of escalating hostilities on the LoC and even launching strikes on terrorist camps or other relevant targets in PoK. But the very purpose of terrorist strikes could be to draw India into such situations, which will lead to a conflagration that can go beyond control.

Some of the limited strike options considered are – air strikes on terror camps in PoK, raids by special forces, use of BrahMos missiles and Smerch rockets at Pak posts and launching pads, increased artillery and heavy weapons fire across LoC and so on – after the clearance of effective response by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a high-powered meeting. If any of these options are taken keeping the surprise element, there is a possibility of Indians being captured as it happened during Kargil conflict, suffering heavy casualties unlike Myanmar raids, risk escalation into bigger conflict, Pak brandishing tactical nuclear weapons and the LeT and Jaish terror training camps remaining intact.

There may be a temptation to go in for a confrontational measure involving military action, which will suit a hawkish policy on Pakistan and terrorism. It may seem to be politically rewarding too. It can also be expected to divert attention from the ongoing trouble in Kashmir. But a knee-jerk response, without a careful assessment of consequences, should be avoided. A confrontation with Pakistan will also not calm the situation in Kashmir but may aggravate it further.

Indeed, it has been difficult to find the right mix of offence and deterrence, and amiability and confrontation, in a policy on Pakistan. India has hard choices but should go in for a mature and studied response, which will promote its cause and interests in a high stakes situation.

The question remains are we prepared to undertake any of these operations? The answer is a big NO at this stage because the Armed Forces have to carry out detailed planning and also replace its deficient arms, equipment and aircrafts with highly sophisticated modern armaments. The execution of joint operations by the Army, Navy and the Air Force is lacking because there is no Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) appointed for proper coordination of operations by the Government in spite of recommendations of the Subrahmanyam Committee Report and Group of Ministers’ Task Force report in 2002 after the Kargil conflict and the high-powered Naresh Chandra Committee Report in 2011.

The Kargil Review Committee’s report (under the chairmanship of Late K Subrahmanyam) had led to the setting up a GoM under the Chairmanship of then Deputy Prime Minister L K Advani, and the report in 2002 had suggested sweeping reforms in the country’s security management system to ensure that any intrusion such as Kargil in 1999 should not come as a total and complete surprise to the Government, the Armed Forces and the intelligence agencies. The main recommendation was to create a CDS for better coordination between the three defence services and heading the Nuclear Command beside others. However, no action was taken.

In June 2011, the Union Government had announced setting up a high-powered committee under the Chairmanship of Naresh Chandra (task force) to review the defence management in the country and make suggestions for implementation of major defence projects. Its main recommendations were: A permanent Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff Committee. (It is the same as the creation of a Chief of Defence Staff recommended in 2002); Promotion of synergy in civil-military functioning to ensure integration, with the deputation of Armed Forces officers up to director level in the Ministry of Defence should be considered.

These recommendations have also not been implemented for bureaucratic reasons of insecurity that the Armed Forces will then become all powerful which is fabricated and not true because the Indian Army is apolitical.

The best option today will be to plan a strategy at the highest level (National Security Council), procure arms, ammunition and other required armaments and carry out proper training with the help of Israel commandos which is the best in the world for execution of such operations.

The Israelis are always a step ahead of the rest of the world and thus have survived onslaughts from 18 hostile nations surrounding their territory so far. When will the Modi government start on Israeli strategies? For example – the Israelis have now developed an airport security device that eliminates the privacy concerns that come with full body scanners.

It is an armoured booth you step into that will not X-ray you, but will detonate any explosive device if anyone may have on his body. (So any called martyr will just go straight to heaven without damaging anybody). Israel sees this as a win-win situation for anyone, with none of the crap about racial or religious profiling. It will also eliminate costs of long and expensive trials.

This apart, the Government should make the Armed Forces strong by increasing the defence budget from mere 1.7 per cent to 3 per cent of GDP for making it highly modern so that the country can talk with its adversaries with empowered military strength. Sooner, the better.---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)