Political Diary

New Delhi, 24 November 2015

Nitish-Lalu Jugalbandi

COHABIT, BUT FOR HOW LONG? 

By Poonam I Kaushish

At the end, it was all about feel good. A two month long, five phase grueling election which culminated in anointing JD(U)’s Nitish Kumar as Chief Minister of Bihar once again. A 64-year old engineer-turned politician who rewrote the rules of the political game for the third time in a tough gladiatorial contest against Prime Minister Modi and became a cause célèbre.

Undoubtedly, Nitish has emerged as a political fulcrum around which all anti-BJP and anti-Modi political forces would converge, notwithstanding spoil-sport Samajwadi’s Mulayam and BSP’s Mayawati. Yet, he heads an inherently fragile coalition as both Lalu’s RJD and Sonia’s Congress are temperamentally and culturally different from each other.

How Nitish manages the pulls and pressures and extreme contradictions, time alone will tell. Both he and Lalu are identical in political upbringing but absolutely unlike in demeanour and track record of governance: Nitish’s development and good governance vs. Lalu’s Jungle raj.

Bets are being placed on how long the old rivals-turned-allies will continue to pull together, rather than drag each other apart. Given Lalu’s disposition of always being numero uno and believing he is truly the king maker, which in this case he is, is a tough call. Add to this Rahul’s Quixote ways, Nitish has an unenviable task of managing on his hands.

The RJD Chief has already made clear his intentions, I-am-your-mai-baap and extracted his pound of flesh. Got both his 9^th and 8^th class pass sons anointed as Number 2&3 in Nitish’s Cabinet, no matter his elder son even failed in taking his oath of secrecy! Reminiscent of his angootha chaap mother Rabri’s days as Chief Minister.  

Moreover, once his sons grasp the nitty-gritty of governance, the RJD Chief is bound to extract his pound of flesh and assert himself with hyperbole that people have given him the moral authority, even as Nitish is Chief Minister. One cannot put it past him to interfere in the day-day functioning of Government, like he did during Rabri Raj.

But being a shrewd politician, Lalu knows he has to first fend off his taint and that he cannot fight elections until 2021. His ladlas too are novices who would not be able to carry on his legacy. Besides, he realizes that if he puts undue pressure or is to demanding of Nitish, the Congress would hoot for the Chief Minister.

Further, if ever push came to shove Nitish, might go back to his erstwhile ally-turned-foe BJP as his 71+58 totals 129, a simple majority in the Assembly. Hence, Lalu is unlikely to do anything stupid and jeopardise the running of the Government.

Additionally, the RJD Chief is handicapped by the fact that 49 of his MLAs (50%) face criminal cases of which 37 are serious criminal charges and may cause him embarrassment. Thus, till Lalu rocks the boat, Nitish has won a hat-trick. Hats off!

True, Nitish is nobody’s fool. By inviting the Prime Minister for his swearing-in he has left his door ajar for realignment with is former ally in the future if Lalu plays hard ball. That the BJP is not averse was apparent when two Union Ministers attended his mammoth swearing-in-ceremony.

For Modi he kills two birds with one stone, gets a foothold in Bihar and defuses Nitish’s ambition as joint Opposition candidate for Bharat’s Gaddi in 2019. The Chief Minister is savoir-faire and issued the invitation knowing that to fulfill his development agenda he has to work with the Centre and get it to open its purse strings.

Add to this, Nitish has his task cut out: He has to press on with policies that proffer educational opportunities, jobs and further economic progress. Alongside, provide fiscal substance for upward mobility and social upliftment of his rainbow coalition of OBCs, EBCs, Mahadalits, Musahars, women and Muslims who voted for him. And continue focusing on bijli-sadak, Suraksha andNari Shakti.

His game plan should be clear: Unemployment is 18.2% higher than UP’s at 17.4%, Bihar boasts of the third highest BPL families, urban 33.6% and 32 % in rural areas. And the JDU's vote share reduced by 5.9 per cent and its seats tally declined by 44 in 2015 vis-a-vis 2010.

This apart, having acquired a larger-than-life image of stopping Modi in his tracks, it remains to be seen if in the long run Nitish could emerge as the dark horse to  challenge the RSS-BJP combine and if so how serious? As strengthening of castes does not translate into de-fanging communalism and caste consolidation by regional Parties of the Hindi heartland espousing secularism has often proved to be too vulnerable to rally people on communal lines.

This was amply demonstrated in UP where Dalits and Yadav deserted their political camps and voted for the BJP in last year’s Lok Sabha elections in the post-Muzaffarnagar riot phase. Similarly in Bihar, the BJP got substantial votes of Yadavs in the Lok Sabha as Lalu was out of contest.

In the ultimate analysis, casteism has never proved to be an effective antidote to mobilisation for India’s development and progress and would not change the grammar of Indian politics. The future discourse will move from a secular-communal path to Modi vs. anti-NaMo line which might continue to degenerate resulting in further radicalisation of society

Ironically, those who worked with Modi and Nitish swear that both share many common traits. Both are meticulous, honest, hardworking and come from humble backgrounds. In their respective settings, both are often accused of being “arrogant and authoritative”. Their politics may diverge but it leaves the scope of the twain meeting in the future.

All in all, Bihar’s poll quake favouring the Mahagathbandhan promises to have repercussions at the national level for the BJP-led NDA, already battling a kahain hain the promised achche din crisis at the Centre. Boosted by its victory, a resurgent Opposition could harden its position against the Government in the forthcoming Parliament’s winter session, sparking off more legislative deadlocks and weakening the Centre’s position in policy battles with the Opposition.

This would certainly create complications in Modi’s reform agenda and development to propel India on the road to prosperity. As also damage its prospects to emerge as a force to reckon with in Eastern India and the Hindu heartland against the backdrop of Assam gearing up for polls next year and UP later.

Importantly, the Bihar elections could well be the harbinger of change, nationally. With half of India’s population in the 18-35 age bracket the aspirational levels of a young democracy has changed dramatically. No longer are old clichés, Styrofoam promises and histrionics palatable. All demand an Obama-like “Yes we can” politics. Whereby progress is bound to overshadow Mandal-Kamandal politics.

In sum, the Bihar spark has ignited a new chingari and shown there are never any full stops in politics. Consequently, power-sharing will remain the name of the game, but it’s the Nitish-Lalu’s chemistry that will determine the success of the Government. What gives?  ----- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)