Political Diary
New Delhi, 18 July 2015
Modi-Sharif Stale’mate’
NO MELT IN DISTRUST
By Poonam I Kaushish
Ever wonder why a big deal is made of the sour, stale and
bitter Indo-Pak ties? All in the hopelessly futile hope-against-hope that a
rainbow will spring out of the thunderous, dark clouds billowing across the border,
vitiated by Pakistan’s daily incursions across Kashmir’s Line of Control (LoC).
But like a million times in the past, each time Einstein is proved right: To
expect different results from the same experiment would be foolish!
Of course, the Modi-Nawaz Sharif meeting on the sidelines of
the SCO Summit at Ufa was a given, obviously at
the prodding of Washington and Beijing. They even issued
a bland statement, the highlight of which was the dreaded K-word was missing.
But if one expected that the hour-long guftagu
would pick up the threads of a frayed relationship and help “reduce the
trust deficit’’ it was not to be.
Barely, had the meeting ended, that Islamabad
first accused New Delhi
of sending a spy drone, then it made clear it did not buy its denial even as
cross-border shelling resumed with a vengeance killing ruthlessly. In the last
week alone, over 11 violations have taken place along the Indo-Pak border.
Questionably, how many more incidents will it take for New Delhi to realize that
its walking the extra step is getting us nowhere with our recalcitrant
neighbour? Hasn’t the time come for New Delhi to
comprehend that Islamabad
refuses to give up its confrontational mindset of waging a “thousand wars”?
What use a dialogue when Islamabad when it stonewalls
India’s
demands on 26/11?
The promise of resumption of institutionalized dialogue
has remained just that — a promise. There is no possibility of a renewed
composite dialogue, which was stopped by the UPA government after the
2008 Mumbai attacks, just yet.
As matters stand, there is nothing concrete to suggest that Pakistan has changed its antagonistic approach
to India.
Nor is there any indication that Islamabad is
ready to address New Delhi’s
‘core’ concerns on terrorism. On the contrary, it has not only restarted the
jihad factory across the border, but the Pakistan Army Chief, like his
predecessors, has innumerable times declared that he considers India, and not
Taliban, to be the enemy and existential threat to Pakistan. The recent
violence in Kashmir bears this out.
Asserted a senior South Block official, “Remember, Islamabad is no pushover,
it needs to answer some tough questions. Are they doing enough on LeT, JeM and
Hizbul Mujahideen? The Mumbai trials? On Lakhvi, Saeed et al all who remain a serious threat to India”?
Think. Peace with Pakistan has been given a shot by
every single Prime Minister but all attempts have failed. Primarily, not because
they lacked conviction but because the Indo-Pak issue is far too complex. For
the ruling troika seeped in military tradition along-with its jihadist proxies,
the ‘core’ issue of Kashmir is an article of
faith.
In fact, the very creation of Pakistan
rests on the foundations of Kashmir. From
Bhutto’s “bleeding India
with a 1000 cuts,” down Kargil inclusions to Mumbai’s 26/11 deep distrust and
lack of confidence is apparent between the warring neighbours ravaged by
history.
Besides, it is not in the realm of impossibility that their
agenda is to keep New Delhi permanently off
balance, damning India
for not talking and damning it if it tries to.
Undoubtedly, New Delhi’s
hunger to build bridges with Islamabad
appears to have blinded the Government to the web of deceit spun by its
duplicitous neighbour. In this troika of power, Sharif has to play second
fiddle to Big Daddies Army and ISI.
India must come to terms with the fact
that Army and ISI are opposed to any normalisation of bilateral relationship based
on a practical and pragmatic resolution of long-standing disputes. Alongside,
the jihadis too are against any
reconciliation between India
and Pakistan.
Thus, even as the Prime Minister trudges the lonely peace road he should
realize that good intentions alone cannot transform ties.
What next? True, South Block has no illusions about any
dramatic transformation in Islamabad’s
policy. However, it needs an all-encompassing and multi-pronged strategy to
deal with it. The Government and its security agencies need to remain ever
vigilant, be one step ahead of the jihadis
and act promptly vis-a-vis
cross-border terrorism.
So long as the hawkish Pakistan
army continues to call the shots, peace with India would be a mirage. Modi
realizes only to well that in today’s geo-strategic political reality
pragmatism dictate real politic. New Delhi needs
an all-encompassing and multi-pronged strategy to deal with Islamabad. Happily, unlike the erstwhile
Manmohan Singh Government, Modi is implementing a ‘zero tolerance to
provocations’ policy.
It needs to get a no-nonsense message across to Islamabad that ignoring New Delhi’s concerns would be by at its own
peril. Pakistan needs to
understand that India’s
patience should not be mistaken for weakness. Given that it has paid the price
for misreading India
thrice over the Indo-Pak wars.
The bottom line? Islamabad
must unravel the full conspiracy behind the Mumbai attack, deny sanctuary to
all terrorist groups that operate from its soil, put the trial of Lakhvi and 6
others on a fast track and handover Hafiz Saeed to India. As also rein JuD leader
Hafiz Makki. The taste of the pudding is in the eating.
On its part, the Government and its security agencies need
to remain ever vigilant, be one step ahead of Pakistan,
its jihadis and take a swift, sharp
and effective response backed by controlled escalation to Pakistan’s
provocations and cross-border terrorism.
As matter stands today, both sides continue to be wary of
each other. Deep mistrust and lack of confidence is apparent. Yet the two have not rejected further
dialogue. Even when it and is no more than a repletion of known positions. Islamabad needs to do a
lot more before the next round, if there is one, than just generating
artificial illusions.
True, there is no magic wand to erase 60 years of distrust,
hatred and enmity. India
needs to be reassured that terror acts and ceasefire violations will be stopped
for the relationship to move to the next level. There is little scope for
talking peace and friendship with a neighbour who is busy throwing stones at
you and even sniping.
So far Pakistan’s
track record has been woeful. It wrecked the Lahore pact by scripting the Kargil
inclusion. Agra
was stillborn. The 26/11 trial is going nowhere. Clearly, the time has come for
India to reject the double
standards that are prevalent in Pakistan's
attitude and take some hard decisions.
Pakistan needs to understand that India’s
patience is wearing thin. Modi has made plain: Cross the red line and pay for
it. If Islamabad wants friendly relations with India, it should abandon its adventurism on the
borders, come to senses and engage diplomatically with India. There
are no short cuts.
India wants durable peace though alone it
cannot guarantee non-escalation. Our Pakistan policy cannot operate in a
perceived vacuum of goodwill and expectations of better ties. Islamabad has to match its words with deeds.
Or else, the chill will only end up as frozen! ---- INFA
(Copyright,
India News and Feature Alliance)
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