Events & Issues

New Delhi, 8 June 2015

One-Year Achievements   

NEW WINE IN OLD BOTTLE?

By Dhurjati Mukherjee

Politically marked speeches by ministers and advertisement blitz highlighting not just what the Government has done in the past one year but also its intentions and plans, which may become a reality after five to 10 years, influence and make an impact on the people. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has followed this strategy and plans and programmes which were started by the UPA government, are being broadcast with much fanfare. People generally do not bother to find out whether it is an innovative programme or just a replica of the work done by a previous government.

Take the case of skill development, which was launched by the UPA government. It formed the National Skill Development Corporation (NSDC) in 2009 which primarily oversaw the training and placement of a million new workers. However, the NDA Government chose to announce its own determination for skill development and formed the Ministry of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship with a target of skilling/upskilling 500 million people by 2022. It remains to be seen whether the Modi government would be able to give the desired thrust to the programme and ensure skill development in a big way, as it claims to do.

The economy was quite stable when the BJP-led NDA took over though it was being said that India was on the edge of a macro-economic crisis. Growth was accelerating from 5.1 per cent in 2012-13 to 6.9 per cent in 2013-14. The current account deficit for the year as a whole had come down to 2.9 per cent of the GDP from around 6 per cent in the previous two years. For the past year (2014-15), the growth is expected to be 7.3 per cent, just a shade higher than the previous fiscal.

The focus is more on GDP growth when job growth should be the focus of attention. Rising employment opportunities are the only sure guarantor of a better life and welfare for the people. Whether the much spoken of ‘Make in India’ campaign would make it possible remains to be seen? But efforts in this direction so far are not much manifest.

The rhetoric that the leaders of the Government have been airing resembles a situation comparable to aggressive advertising of FMGC (Fast moving consumer goods) products. These products face intense competition and the companies regularly advertise with assertion about the high quality, which sadly has no meaning and no scientific basis. A case in point is the recent controversy and subsequent ban of Nestle India’s Maggi noodles. It is indeed absurd why false and absurd claims are allowed to be aired in both print and visual media and the government regulations to check these are not adhered to. In what way is the Modi Government different from its predecessor?

Come to think of it, only the decline in international oil prices helped the economy for a few months but the trend started changing gradually. Modi obviously availed the benefits of the earlier situation and talked about with much fanfare about a turnaround of the economic situation. However, with prospects of low rainfall looming large, specially in the North Western regions, and impending drought, the forecast in the coming months appears quite grim. Food production may fall while prices of essential commodities are expected to rise.

During the past year, various schemes and plans in virtually each sector have been announced while in some just the names have been changed. The hype in announcing these plans or changing the names is not matched by actual performance. Meanwhile, in the last Budget, allocations for several welfare programmes like the NREGS have been reduced and some experts have opined that the Government is more interested to look after the interests of the industrial class only, resulting in neglect of the rural masses.

Additionally, one may mention here that Central support in critical schemes such as Mid Day Meal Programme has been slashed by 66 per cent, Sarva Siksha Abhiyan (SSA) by 77 per cent and Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana (RKVY) by 46 per cent. The argument of fiscal concern is hard to believe, given the fact that the previous government managed to allocate adequate funds to welfare schemes even while negotiating tough circumstances in the global slowdown.

While the Government has spelt out plans and programmes to revive agriculture sector and thereby take on the onslaught of deficient monsoon, there remains a question mark as sufferings of the farming community are increasing. If production declines due to inadequate rain, which appears to be a clear possibility, the distress of the rural sector would increase. What programme has the government visualized to revive the rural sector and generate employment in these areas?  What infrastructure facilities are being contemplated to upgrade the standards of living of the rural mass?

If one analyses the incomes of the farming community over a ten-year period, it is clearly manifest that comparable earnings in any other profession in the urban sector has been over one-and-a-half time more. Even the fabulous rise in salaries of Class IV Government staff does not in any way compare with those of middle-level peasants.

Take also the case of the Ganga cleaning which, due to the intervention and reprimand of the Supreme Court, had put the Government in an awkward position. Allegations of inaction have been levelled against the authorities. According to a member of the National Ganga River Basin Authority (NGRBA), the Prime Minister’s enthusiasm that is manifest through reports in the media is not matched with activities of the Authority and only one meeting had been held with the old members after the NDA came to power.

The hope of inflow of huge foreign funds has not fructified. Japan has all along been a trusted friend of India but whether it would make available more funds, as is being talked about, remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the export-import gap between China and India has been widening. Thus, what is necessary at this juncture is that Beijing would have to increase exports from India and reduce the gap which it is not doing. Regarding making available funds for setting up business in this country, some headway has no doubt been made. 

Thus, the overall situation does not augur well for the present government. Only time will tell  whether the NDA government can bring about basic changes in the livelihood conditions of the poor – not increasing GDP by a few points – and generating adequate employment and self-employment. Only giving benefits to the industrial class and increasing their earnings will not bring about real development in the country. Modi has come from the grass-root level and should be guided by economists and planners who are down to earth and aware of the social reality in the country. ---INFA 

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)