Round The World
New Delhi, 16 September 2014
Turmoil in Arab
World
INDIA NEEDS TO TREAD CAREFULLY
By Ashok B Sharma
The unfolding situation in West Asia
and North Africa has not only put Indian diplomacy to test but is also likely
to pose a challenge to the country’s security concerns and economic interests
given the region has brought both local and external powers in the play. Further,
the sectarian divide between Sunnis and Shias has aggravated the situation by
questioning the Sykes-Picot boundaries between the nation States.
Importantly, the setting up of the
Caliphate by the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS)
is an indication that the knotty problem may not be resolved in the immediate
future. Adding to India’s
security concerns is the Sunni terrorist organisation, Al Qaeeda forming a new
arm for the Indian sub-Continent.
Remember, the region, long known as
a playground for external powers, is undergoing reconfiguration in its geo-politics
which is likely to impact geo-economics also. Though the area has a love-hate
relationship with external players, it cannot resolve most of its core problems
without external influence, interference or intervention.
Notably, despite its declining
influence, the US
continues to be the power which has the political will and military capability
to exert itself in the region. But its attitude towards the Arab Spring and its
policy of ‘rebalancing towards Asia Pacific’ has drawn criticism from its
regional allies.
Russia is seen coming back as a player
with its support for Iran
and the Assad regime in Syria
along-with ongoing efforts to cultivate stronger relations with Egypt. In fact,
Moscow’s handling of the Ukraine issue
has demonstrated its growing assertiveness in world affairs.
China, which sources about 50% of its
imported oil from this region, is continuing to strengthen its economic
leverage. Alongside Japan
and South Korea
too look to this area for meeting their energy needs.
Pertinently, the sectarian divide
between the Sunnis and Shias has made Saudi Arabia
and Iran
active in mobilising their influence in the region. The six-member Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC) that is supposed to anchor the region is suffering
from intra-GCC rivalry which is threatening to alter the fragile balance within
the group. The emergence of Qatar-Saudi contention is one of the major issues.
Add to this, Iran is coming
out of its isolation after its interim agreement with P5+1 resulting in the partial
lifting of sanctions. But Iran-Saudi Arabia rivalry has taken new dimensions with
Tehran harbouring
ambition to lead the Shias in the region.
Recall, in 2004 Jordon’s King
Abdullah apprehended the emergence of the Shia Crescent embracing Iran, Iraq,
Syria and Lebanon. This fear was also echoed by the then Egyptian President
Hosni Mubarak and Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al Faisal.
However, with the emergence of
Hezbollah in Lebanon, rule
of the minority Alawites Shias in Syria,
nascent Shia empowerment and leadership in Iraq
after the fall of Saddam Hussein coupled with US
withdrawal and emergence of the new Zaydi (Shia) fighting force in Yemen, the Shia Crescent dream
seems to be a reality.
True, in the global Muslim
population of 1.4 billion, Shias constitute 13%, with their maximum
concentration in Iran
and the Arab world. If Iran
is excluded, Arab Shias constitute one-third of the total native population. In
Iraq,
Shias constitute about 60% of the total population of 35 million.
In Bahrain, two-third of the native half
million population is Shia and in Kuwait, 30% of its 1.2 million native populace
is Shia, while in Saudi Arabia’s 20 million local inhabitants 13 % is Shia of
which Ismaili Shias are concentrated in the
Eastern Province, Najran and Jizan Province. In Syria, Alawi Shias constitute just
12% of the total population of 23 million yet the sect’s Assad family has been
ruling the country since 1971.
Significantly, all the Shia sects in
the region have Iran’s
support which is determined to emerge as a major player in the area. Obversely,
Saudi Arabia
is the natural leader of the Sunnis in the region. Notwithstanding, both Iran and Saudi
Arabia were in the forefront of supporting the Palestine cause. However,
in the recent Israeli operation in Gaza against the
backdrop of the ISIS occupation of over 40,000 sq km of Iraq, the response from both Iran and Saudi Arabia was negligible.
There is no gainsaying that the sharp
Sunni-Shia sectarian divide in the region might have a spill over effect on India’s Muslim
population and elsewhere in the world. Given that the country has the third
largest Muslim populace. There are already reports of some Indian Sunni Muslims
joining the ISIS adventure in Iraq
and a few Shias willing to go to Iraq
to defend Najaf and Karbala.
Thus, the Shia-Sunni sectarian divide might result in a new problem.
Clearly, the challenge facing India is to
balance its political equations and economic interests with major regional and
external players in the area as the country’s energy imports from the region account
for about 63% of total oil imports. West Asia and North
Africa have 47% of the world’s natural gas reserves.
Also, the region is India’s leading
trading partner with total trade of about $200 billion. The area hosts about
seven million Indian expatriates who send considerable amount of remittances
back. Moreover, Gulf countries have huge Sovereign Funds which can be invested
in several infrastructure projects in the country.
Though the present crisis has not
impacted global oil and gas prices thanks to ample stocks, the turmoil in the
region is likely to affect future investment climate and production in the long
run.
In sum, if the Sykes-Picot
boundaries, arbitrarily fixed by the British and French after World War I are
replaced and new boundaries drawn based on sectarian divide, the entire geo-politics
and geo-economics of the region would undergo change
Already, the ISIS Caliphate has
begun the process of earmarking its areas and capturing oil fields and refinery
at Mosul. It is
still holding 40 Indian construction workers as hostage. Consequently, in this
emerging situation India
needs to carefully play its diplomatic card keeping in mind its security and
economic interests. ----- INFA
(Copyright,
India News and Feature Alliance)
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