Round The World
New Delhi, 21 May 2014
Modi’s Foreign
Policy Orientation
PARADIGM SHIFT TO
ECONOMICS
By Prof. Arvind
Kumar
Dept. of
Geopolitics and International Relations, Manipal University
The mandate given to the BJP by the
people has shown a high degree of maturity in the true democratic spirit. It is
obvious from the mandate that the responsibility and accountability to run the
country has been enshrined to Prime Minister-designate Narendra Modi.
Undoubtedly, the final result of the
election reflects the need to have a decisive Government. It was high time the
country needed a strong Government with full majority. The UPA coalition Government
had derailed the process of decision making at a time when there is a growing
competition among nation States across the globe.
A country of India’s size
cannot afford to remain distant from the decision making process on all issues
impacting the country’s image across the globe. The onus now is completely on
the Prime Minister-designate to deliver and fulfil the aspirations of India and its people.
There is a growing debate in the
country and elsewhere in the world with regard to India’s foreign policy orientation
in the foreseeable future. Some have argued that the new Government might like
to take a hard line position in dealing with its neighbourhood. Others have
opined that India
would now be more cautious and pragmatic in taking any stance which would not
only be pragmatic but also very moderate in its approach in dealing with both
the neighbourhood and the world.
Such a policy response would be in
tandem with India’s
national interests. Moreover, the country would accommodate itself in a
balanced manner but at the same time it might prefer to evolve an assertive
diplomatic maneuvering for effective signaling and messaging.
Notably, foreign policy, by and
large, never featured prominently during electioneering in the past. But,
somehow, this election for the sixteenth Lok Sabha was slightly different. A
number of inferences can be drawn from various statements made by Modi during
the process of electioneering and campaign. From what has been articulated so
far, it is obvious that economic development would be the main priority of the
new Prime Minister which would largely underpin his foreign policy decision
making.
The indications that the External
Affairs Ministry would require to place a significant emphasis on trade
negotiations and also promote India’s
business overseas are clear reflections of its intent and fundamental goals.
The other reflections especially in the context of the need to enhance the role
of the State in the foreign policy decision making have also gained salience.
It may have featured because of the
experience of the Prime Minister-designate in dealing with the rest of the
world as Gujarat’s Chief Minister. The
federalization of India’s
foreign policy also seems to be a possibility in the foreseeable future in the
new Government. That Gujarat has been able to
attract the largest foreign direct investment in the country connotes that the
role of the State is going to be dominant in foreign policy orientation.
The new Government is likely to put
greater emphasis on economic and commercial diplomacy. Such an approach will
obviously see a major shift from the previous Government. Modi’s experience in
establishing commercial linkages between Gujarat
and other nations will find resonance in the evolution of national policies.
There will be continued emphasis on building relations with India’s East
and South-east Asian partners.
It is most likely that Modi will
make some serious efforts in roping international investors from countries such
as Japan and South Korea
with whom he has been able to develop a strong bilateral understanding. It is
anticipated that ties with Singapore
and Japan,
in particular, will deepen under the Modi-led Government.
The Association of South-east Asian
Nations (ASEAN) will feature
prominently in terms of India’s
priorities in the coming months especially in initiating the stalled process of
building connectivity such as the trilateral highway with Thailand and building road and rail network with
Myanmar.
It will be of great significance to India’s national and economic
interests.
Unquestionably, Modi will also
prioritise and give special attention to China and enhance economic
partnership. The country will soon become investor-friendly through the
creation of single-window clearances and initiating a number of largely relaxed
policy measures. Such action will augment and intensify economic partnership.
It must be reiterated that Modi will
be extra cautious in dealing with Beijing because
of economic interests and China
being the largest trading partner of India. However, the handling of China’s incursions across the Line of Actual
Control into India’s
part of J&K will have to be addressed without hurting the country’s larger
economic interests. Modi would require to deal with Japan
and China
at a level where he can not afford to show his closeness with either of them. He
would require to balance relationship with both the countries.
Besides, Modi had articulated China’s
expansionist design during his campaign. This now needs to be moderated but at
the same time, the demonstration of India’s intent and annoyance
through its assertive diplomacy is likely to be signaled. Modi will not do
anything which would jeopardise Sino-Indian economic relations.
Importantly, dealing with Pakistan will not be a challenge anymore for India. But,
dealing with Islamabad’s
sponsored terrorism will obviously remain a severe challenge. The symbolic
messaging to Pakistan
especially on India’s
reactions to any Pak actions will dissuade Islamabad
to provoke and prompt New Delhi.
The other countries in India’s
neighbourhood will also receive attention especially in the context of building
an amicable atmosphere where the development agenda of the country’s will be
realized. It is most likely that Modi as a part of his first official visit as India's Prime Minister might like to go to Dhaka
where he could sign the Teesta water sharing treaty with Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. However, this
might require comprehensive assessment with regard to the probable and possible
benefits. Modi has already received an invitation from Sheikh Hasina without
swearing-in.
With regard to the evolving contours
of Indo-US strategic partnership, Modi will show absolute maturity and evolve a
robust relationship at every level. The Free Trade Agreement between India and the US may get priority. Modi might come
up with lot of game changing idea in diplomacy. An attempt will certainly be
made in deepening India’s
cultural linkages with the world, which ultimately would help in harnessing India’s soft
power vis-à-vis international diplomacy.
In sum, the primary task before Modi
with regard to India’s
foreign policy orientation will be to ensure an external environment that would
be conducive to the country’s transformation and development. Alongside, how to
attain a peaceful and prosperous periphery around India’s neighbourhood will remain not
only a complex task but also a daunting challenge.
Certainly, the Modi-led Government
will see a paradigm shift in India’s
foreign policy approaches from politics to economics and mainly usher a new era
of economic and commercial diplomacy. ---- INFA
(Copyright, India
News and Feature Alliance)
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