Political Diary
New Delhi, 14 September 2013
BJP Modi-fied
CAN HE ATTAIN NIRVANA FOR RAM BHAKTS?
Poonam I Kaushish
The old order changeth, yielding place to new, with the BJP
being Modi-fied, marking the end of the Vajpayee-Advani era. After months of
Hamletian ‘should-he-or-should-he-not-be dilly-dallying, the BJP, finally
anointed its charismatic vote-catcher Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi its
Prime Ministerial candidate four days ahead of his birthday today (September
17) Marking a new epoch for the Bhakti,
Jagran Party as it maneouvers the steep
boulder ridden road for India’s Raj gaddi. Will Narender Modi be the Party’s Ram or Ravan?
To his credit, Modi has won three terms as Gujarat’s
CEO. But it remains to be seen if he will be accepted as a national leader.
Questionably, will his past impact his future?
Will his “serve Mother India” slogan resonate in other parts of the
country? Can he unify Gen X who has lost
patience with the UPA’s dithering governance? Uplift the Party from being a 'B'
Team of the Congress. Or will he polarise votes on community lines? Remember,
his foray during the Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka Assembly elections came a
cropper.
Undeniably, Modi remains BJP's most formidable, no-nonsense,
tough leader but he continues to have many detractors within the Party as
without. Patriarch Advani’s no show at his one-time protégé’s coronation was
telling. The ageing leader, whose “inner conscience” prevented him from
supporting Modi, forecast “political disaster”. Yet Gen Next leaders who Advani
had nurtured thumbed their noses at their mentor who catapulted the Party from
2 MPs in 1984 to 88 in 1989.
Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan absence
at the Party’s Parliamentary Board meeting was noticed, given that he preferred
Modi’s anointment post the Assembly polls as he did not want the electorate to
polarize on communal lines. Leader of Opposition Sushma Swaraj made a
blink-appearance-hasty exit.
True, certain quarters within the BJP believe it can reap
the electoral harvest given the peoples’ discontent with the scam-ridden
Congress-led UPA. And no-nonsense and clean Modi has the where-with-all to
energise the cadre, demoralised by the leadership’s failure to cash in on
Manmohan Singh Government’s image deficit.
His presence would help polarise the cadres and consolidate
the Hindutva brigade. Even as he is feted for his administrative skills and
development record his dictatorial attitude, arrogance, inflexibility on issues
and tough image, in-experience outside Gujarat
and 2002 communal taint have left him friendless in quarters that count thereby
making it difficult for him to breach the national Capital.
He is scarcely seen as a leader who can prove a magnet for potential
allies with the polity sharply divided along the secular-communal line. Making
it virtually impossible for the Gujarat Chief Minister to gain the confidence
of the minority community. And this in turn will act as a drag on his attempts
to emerge as a credible leader on the national scene.
As he spearheads the BJP's campaign, his ability as a
vote-catcher will unfold in the results of the forthcoming Madhya Pradesh,
Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi Assembly polls. Besides, he would have to
surmount intrigues within the Party, oust the Congress in 2014 general
elections, and reach the magical 272 MPs number in the Lok Sabha to form the
next Government? Can he become a magnet for potential allies before hoping to become
Prime Minister?
Highly unlikely. In 2009 it managed to net only 116 Lok
Sabha seats compared to Congress 206. Think. In four Southern States which
account for 150 Lok Sabha seats (Andhra Pradesh Andhra Pradesh 42, Tamil Nadu
39, Orrisa 21, Karnataka 28 and Kerala 20) at best the Party to gain some in
Karnataka and Orissa.
In the seven North East States
and West Bengal which total 67 it would draw a
blank unless it allies with Assam Gano Parishad and the Trinimool. Also, given
that Muslims votes which account for 15 per cent vote-share could tilt the
electoral scales in nearly 200 seats, the polity is sharply divided along the
secular-communal line.
The only silver lining lies in the Hindu heartland
comprising UP, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar where the BJP could strike rich if it
plays its cards right. The three States alone account for 174. Add to it Maharashtra’s 48 and Gujarat 26 the number totals 248.
For Modi, it is a catch-22 situation. While he would like to
maintain his Hindu strongman branding without actually harping on it, this
image continues to stand in the way of his national aspirations. That also
explains why he has been talking of amity and unity for India’s
development. He realizes that national elections are increasingly turning into
aggregates of State polls in an era of coalition politics.
Pertinently, several Parties are experts at switching
between the NDA and the UPA, with bouts of equi-distance. Namely, Trinamool, DMK, AIDMK, NC,
LJP, JMM et al. It all depends on
whether the BJP can net 200 seats in the Lok Sabha poll and the alternative
that emerges post polls. The backing of the Shiv Sena and Punjab’s
SAD is not enough. Hard reality has a way of papering over any queasiness our netagan might have as they strive to
safeguard their survival and significance to share power.
Also, other regional satraps
like AIADMK Purathhathalvi Jayalalithaa who acknowledges Modi as a friend, but
the Party cannot count on her support. BJD’s Naveen Patnaik is dicey while
TDP’s Chandrababu Naidu and Trinamool’s Mamata might not want to support a
Modi-led NDA for fear of alienating the minorities.
NCP’s Sharad Pawar also shares a good chemistry with Modi
but this might not translate in to an electoral understanding. Another spoiler
could be from within. If both Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Chattisgarh’s Raman
Singh perform hat-tricks in their respective States they would be on equal
footing with Modi. Needless to say it would be a long haul for the BJP to scout
for fresh allies
But the task becomes onerous for the “Party with a Difference”.
Undeniably, the “M”Factor alongside the recent Muzaffarnagar riots have heavily
polarised the electorate, especially in UP. Indeed for the first time the
district has witnessed a Jat-Muslim riots wherein it seemed that both the
Samajwadi-BJP used it as a testing ground for their respective vote banks --- Muslims
and Hindus. Additionally, if communal sentiment persists till elections and
results in voting on communal lines, India’s political landscape could
change for the worse.
Having raised expectations sky high with his pledges to take
India
down a path of corruption free development it remains to be seen whether Modi
can deliver, how much and how it will impact his future if he fails. Like his
mentor-turned dissident Advani, NaMo would do well to realize that in the
ever-changing political kaleidoscope, power is ephemeral, here today, gone
tomorrow. He too is not infallible. His
order shall also give way to another if he can’t attain political nirvana for the Ram Bhakts! In to the dustbin of history. ----- INFA
(Copyright,
India News and Feature Alliance)
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