Events & Issues
New Delhi, 29 July 2013
Third Front Govt?
UP GAME CHANGER
By P B Verma
‘Is there any possibility
of the formation of a ‘Third Front Government’ at the Centre after the next Lok
Sabha elections?’ According to political observers, this possibility could not
be ruled out. However, much would depend on how wisely the two national Parties,
BJP and Congress play their cards. No doubt, Uttar Pradesh with 80 seats would play
a very important role in deciding the fate of the Parties striving to adorn Delhi’s throne.
With the Congress-led UPA
Government involved in several big scams along-with the unbridled rising prices
of essential commodities, which have made it difficult for the common man to
make both ends meet, the Congress cannot hope for a favourable response from
the people in the 2014 elections.
Besides weak governance,
the Congress lacks dynamic leadership which could lead the Party to success.
Rahul Gandhi, feel sceptics, have neither the qualities nor the experience to
emerge as a successful leader. Congressmen it appears praise him and declare
him as future Prime Minister only to please Party Chief Sonia Gandhi, who could
make or destroy their political career.
It is tragic that both
Sonia and Rahul are over-confident about their ‘impact’ on voters whereby they
haven’t given thought to promoting local leadership. Even pictures of State
Party Chiefs and other senior State leaders are mostly found missing from
posters displayed for publicity of their meetings.
Also, they haven’t tried
to promote the State or local leadership in their speeches when touring a
State. Guess, both fail to realise that national leaders only help in creating
a congenial atmosphere for the Party, but it is the local level leaders who
convert it into votes.
Recall, in the Vidhan
Sabha elections held in various States, the Party succeeded in forming the
Government only where the local leadership was already very strong or it got
the advantage of blunders committed by the Party in power, as was the case in
Karnataka and Uttarakhand.
The Congress succeeded in
Karnataka as the BJP headed by ex-Party Chief Nitin Gadkari had handled
developments badly after the involvement of former Chief Minister Yeddiyurappa
in the mining scam. In Uttarakhand, the Party lost marginally to Congress thanks
to internal sabotage. So far as UP is concerned, it is said that a rival is not
needed to defeat a Congress candidate in the elections. The job is done by
Congressmen themselves!
The Party is banking
largely upon its game changer, ‘Food Security Scheme’ for its success in the
next Lok Sabha polls. But, political observers think this is a distant dream as
little time is left at the UPA Government’s disposal to implement it successfully
all across the country. Additionally, this appears a tough call as the public
distribution system in most of the States is paralysed.
Moreover, if true that
the path to the Centre leads through UP, then the Congress should not expect
much in the 2014 elections. If it seeks to draw inspiration from its success in
the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, it is mistaken.
Political pundits assert the
success the Congress achieved in the last election was not because it had grown
stronger but because of the blunders committed by BSP supremo and then Chief
Minister Mayawati. She failed to realise that the BSP returned to power because
the common man voted en masse in her
favour due to her tough stance against the mafia during her earlier stint as Chief
Minister.
Clearly, Mayawati was
under the wrong impression that she won because of the support of a community,
and fielded several mafia dons in the Lok Sabha elections, thereby damaging her
‘anti-mafia’ image and sending shock waves across her voters, who were left
with no option but to support the Congress.
Further, her voters
neither wanted to support Mulayam’s Samajwadi or BJP which had earned a bad
name among the people as some of its Ministers had crossed all limits of
corruption due to which the Party was regaled to third position in the State
Assembly elections.
On its part, the BJP has
given the impression that Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi is its Prime
Ministerial candidate. Wherein, the rank and file believe his image as an
honest and dynamic leader, an efficient administrator would help polarise votes
in favour of the Party.
Indeed, in the prevailing
situation in the country especially UP, the outlook looks favourable for
Modi. But his greatest stumbling block are
his Party colleagues. Party patriarch LK Advani remarks post the Goa conclave has damaged the BJP’s prospects to a great
extent.
Undeniably, Advani played
an important role in developing the BJP from two MPs to sit on the Lok Sabha Treasury
Benches, he might also prove a
successful Prime Minister, but thanks to the RSS relegating him to the
background, he no longer remains a voter catcher.
During the last decade,
the RSS and VHP have considerably lost their sheen among Hindus. Resulting in
an impression gaining ground among its cadres that fund collection is its main
objective. The proposed mandir
construction campaign is seen more as a ‘dhan
sangrah abhiyan’ (money collection campaign) rather than one to facilitate
the Sri Ram temple’ construction at
Ayodhya. Any move by the VHP during the forthcoming Lok Sabha election is
likely to damage Modi and BJP’s prospects.
According to political
observers, harsh and bitter criticism of Modi by Opposition leaders is helping polarise
votes in his favour, especially in the Hindi belt. Not a few feel if the BJP plays
its card well, it could win 40-45 seats in UP alone. However, if Modi fails, it
might result in the formation of a Third Front given the recent popularity of regional
Parties.
In fact, Samajwadi’s
Mulayam feels if his Party is able to get the same number of seats, if not
more, than the BJP it could pave the way for him becoming Prime Minister. Will
UP give him the chance? Time will tell. ----INFA
(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)
|