Political Diary

New Delhi, 23 March 2013

DMK Walk Out

UPA NOW UP-A

By Poonam I Kaushish

A week is a long time in politics. Which aptly describe the high voltage drama played out on the political chessboard with the DMK finally walking its talk, by withdrawing support to the Congress-led UPA over its refusal to bend backwards on the UN Human Rights Council vote against Sri Lanka. Thereby, ending its 9 years uneasy alliance and reducing the wobbly Government to a minority. Reminding one of Henry Ward Beecher’s brilliant quip, the worst thing in this world after anarchy is Government!

Indeed, history has come full circle 15 years after the Congress pulled down Gujral’s United Front coalition demanding withdrawal of DMK Ministers from the Government over the Jain Commission Report on former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi assassination and indicted the Party for giving “tacit support” to the LTTE.

Without the DMK’s 18 MPs, the UPA-II strength is down from 295 to 277 in the 540 MPs Lok Sabha, which officially reads the UPA is now a minority Government, inherently less stable It is now completely dependent on “outside support system” whose ‘plug’ is in the hands of UP’s M&M duo, Samajwadi’s Mulayam and BSP’s Mayawati who have 43 MPs (SP 22, BSP 21).

But that isn’t the end of its worries, as carrying the two mercurial parties along will require a delicate balancing act. Their constant jostling in UP apart, the M&M satraps are busy extracting their pound of flesh at a price the Centre might find difficult to manage. While Mulayam's son and Chief Minister Akhilesh demands a special Rs 72,000 crores package for the State notwithstanding it has already got Rs 45,000 crore to be paid in installments.

Mayawati has upped the ante on SC/STs quota in promotions and is adamant that the Bill be passed soon. But Mulayam, whose OBC support base would be adversely affected, has stiffly opposed this. Thus, it would be difficult for the Congress to reconcile the conflicting demands of the arch rivals. But the DA cases against both could be an effective tool to tame them.

Raising a moot point once again: Can a coalition Government work in a country as diverse, multi-cultural and individualistic as we are? And as India readies itself to don a super power status in the new uni-polar global fraternity? Is our polity mature enough to handle taciturn partners and provide good, clean governance? Is there a dharma which binds UPA’s comrades-in-arms together? Or is it a case of brazen opportunitism and shameless self-interest? Is it not time we rethink our model of democratic governance? Or should one change to a two-Party system? 

Look at the inexplicable configurations of the UPA. The enemies and friends are all rolled into one working on the dictum that my enemy’s enemy is my friend. For are ‘Made in India’ leaders it is back to the good old days when they and splinter groups are punching above their weights. If not political realignment, their influence has, at least increased significantly.

The Congress and RJD and Paswan’s LJP are arch rivals in Bihar and Jharkhand and the NCP shares a relationship of compulsion with the Congress both at the Centre and in Maharashtra. Ditto the case with Ajit Singh RLD in UP and Deve Gowda JD(S) down South. Compounding this neither Sonia nor Manmohan Singh seem willing or capable of stemming the rot. Happy playing second fiddle to taciturn and unreliable allies. By fighting shy of a face-off the Government stays afloat.  

What next? It is a matter of time when one of the M&M withdraws support. Already, the Congress is facing an uphill task of going into the polls without regional allies in major States. Take UP. With the Congress heavily banking on the SP-BSP at the Centre, a pre-poll alliance with either one would mean antagonising the other. Two, both are infamous for being mercurial.  They talk-out in the morning, walk-out in the afternoon and bail-out in the evening!

Either which way, Rahul’s dream of reviving the Party in the State which sends 80 Lok Sabha MPs will continue to remain a pipedream, despite improving its tally from 9 seats in 2004 to 21 in 2009 only to come a poor fourth in last year’s  Assembly polls.

Ditto the situation in Tamil Nadu where the Congress won 8 out of 39 seats in 2009 in alliance with the DMK, which was in power in the State. Today, post break-up coupled with regional sentiment on the Sri Lanka issue, it would be a daunting task. In West Bengal, too, the Congress has been forced into near-irrelevance after Mamata’s Trinamool parted ways over its economic policies last September. The Congress has just 6 of 42 MPs. In Andhra too it remains to be seen how many the Congress will be able to retain of its 31 of 42 with YSR Congress Jagan Reddy poised to make a considerable dent.

Undoubtedly, with these four States accounting for 203 of the 540 Lok Sabha constituencies it is a steep uphill. With just a year left before the next Parliamentary poll the Government may not fall, but its legislative and administrative powers will be constrained by the likes and dislikes of the ‘outside’ supporting parties.

Importantly, given the dynamics of politics in the present fragmented state, there will be an inherent compulsion for the Parties to come together, so as to be a recognizable force. Nothing objectionable. But when it comes to alignments, there is a chasm between ideologies and objectives. As UPA II exposes when a national Party cohabits with strange regional outfits for all the wrong reasons to attain power, it fails to realize that it could end in an anti-climax.

Tragically, national interests get wantonly dumped in quest of power.  It has nothing to do with taking the federal structure of our polity a step forward. Brazenly, forgetting that federalism does not mean blackmail, nor does the word coalition imply an alliance with all and sundry – with anybody and everybody. Bringing things to such a pass that who ever sits on Delhi’s gaddi can only do so with his regional friends. For it is they who really control the vote-banks.

In the ultimate, the Congress needs to beyond old-school caste-creed-minority quota vote-bank politics. The world of 2012 is different. Today, an aspirational, merciless and impatient India is rearing to go. Gen X does not connect with the constant whining of Hum Garib Hain. Then fix it. Time for our polity to think 2020 if not 2050.

Sadly, this political game of kiss-and-tell based on opportunism underscores the harsh truth of today’s India. In a coalition milieu when India is facing many security, economic and social challenges the UPA cannot afford to be either a Divided Progressive Alliance (DPA) or a Non-Performing Alliance (NPA). It might not agree that it has become a ‘lame duck’ Government, but it can hardly walk without the crutches.

Clearly, our netagan need to realize that national interest urgently requires a coalition dharma that ensures good and honest governance on the basis of public morality and principles. They must not reduce themselves to a level of Gharib ki joru, sab ki Bhabhi! --- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)