Events & Issues

New Delhi, 24 December 2012

Gujarat Verdict

GOOD GOVERNANCE THE KEY

By Col (Dr) PK Vasudeva (Retd)

Gujarat election results demonstrate that the voter is indeed changing. Today, growth matters to the people far more than politics based on caste, creed and communities. While critics and enemies can challenge Narendra Modi’s claim to mega development in the State by questioning and calling it “phoney”, the reality is that the aam aadmi responded enthusiastically to his good governance campaign.

In fact, Modi’s hat trick victory on the development plank has significance far beyond the boundaries of the State, not only because he has proved yet again that incumbency can in fact be turned into an advantage rather than being a negative, but also propels him to the national stage of politics with 14-odd months to go for the crucial Lok Sabha elections in 2014.

This election was essentially between the aam aadmi and the perpetrators of a political culture who merely indulge in feathering their own nests, with no thought for his concerns and hassles. It has also been, in that sense, an affirmation of his continued faith in Modi government’s policies which he found had contributed to accelerated development and to whose beneficial effects he has been a proximate witness.

This is the message — the aam aadmi’s increasingly strident demand to deliver — that the political and governing classes have been missing out, and Narendra Modi had been heeding. The aam aadmi is keen to move on, looking for leaders who will meet his rising expectations.

Apart from the Congress party which tried every trick to stop the Modi juggernaut, including propping up former Chief Minister Keshubhai Patel to eat into his vote base, there were leaders in his own party who wished that the BJP would merely scrape through in the elections so that he could be contained to Gujarat politics. In the event, BJP’s victory in 117 seats, and the Congress being a distant second with 61 seats – its fifth consecutive defeat in Gujarat – showed that Modi’s development and good governance plank could not be dismissed as a mere hype.

Modi possibly realises that despite repeated endorsement in his own State, his image at the national level and perceptions among the Muslims across the country is permanently scarred by the horrendous 2002 Gujarat riots, which took place when he was the Chief Minister. Interestingly, the BJP won in eight of the 12 Muslim-dominated constituencies! This also shows that minorities are well looked after and it is this inclusive growth that matters. Modi’s victory has also proved that it is the Congress that is communal and not the BJP, as the latter has treated all minorities on an equal footing, without any disparity.

Though there has been no concrete evidence so far suggesting his direct or indirect abetment to the riots, his political rivals have used the tragic events to paint him as a communal bigot who, given a higher responsibility, would destroy the secular fabric of the nation. Aware that he needs to make amends, Modi used his victory speech on 20 December to “apologise to six crore Gujaratis for any mistakes that may have occurred.” 

While it could not stop Modi, the Congress got some consolation by displacing the BJP government in Himachal Pradesh. It managed to win a wafer-thin majority of 36 seats in a House of 68 on the strength of campaign by veteran leader Virbhadra Singh, a five-time chief minister. However, its victory had more to do with failure of the Prem Kumar Dhumal government’s non-performance and the expected anti-incumbency factor. The voters was not enthused by the BJP’s negative campaign against its opponents, and sent the strong signal that they could not be taken for granted.

Interestingly, between 2002-03 and 2010-11 – roughly coinciding with Modi’s tenure as Chief Minister – Gujarat’s economy grew by an average 10.4 per cent a year, as against 7.9 per cent for India as a whole. True, Gujarat’s development – whether it is to do with industries such as oil & gas, chemicals, petrochemicals, pharma, synthetic textiles, diamond polishing and diesel engines, or even institutions such as Amul – pre dates Modi. But his period did see the emergence of new industrial centres: From Pipavav and Morbi in the Saurashtra region and Mundra and Anjar in Kutch, to Sanand, Dholera and Halol in central Gujarat.

This apart, Gujarat’s power situation – unlike in India’s other major industrialised State, Tamil Nadu – has vastly improved over the last decade. That includes in rural areas, where electricity is available round-the-clock and metered for domestic use, along with assured eight-hour subsidised supply for farm connections through separate feeders. That and the policy of large-scale construction of check dams have certainly been good for the State’s largely rain-fed agriculture.

The recent record, if anything, points to a maturing of the Indian electorate. While a non-performing ruling party is mercilessly booted out, it is equally dismissive of any Opposition that has no worthwhile agenda to offer. This lesson particularly applies to the Congress in Gujarat, which relied solely on ‘anti-incumbency’ or the BJP losing the so-called ‘Patidar’ vote to its erstwhile CM Keshubhai Patel’s breakaway party. This kind of negative campaign did not go well with the electorate; even Keshubhai’s outfit ended up splitting the anti-BJP vote more than damaging Modi’s prospects.

At the end of the day, Gujarat’s people gave a favourable verdict to Modi’s overall development record as CM and also as someone projecting a more positive, inspirational agenda than a listless Opposition. This should encourage other ruling parties as well to focus on what their electorates truly seek – good governance and development. The ones delivering these are destined to win.

Foreign governments, including the US, which had self-righteously blackballed Modi on a personal plane by unbecoming actions such as refusal of visa, barring of official visits and contacts and the like, have had to eat crow on seeing the conspicuous impact he has made on the fronts of governance and development.

Nobody could have missed the political significance of the British High Commissioner’s high profile visit to Gujarat to make amends and his widely disseminated photo-op with Modi just on the eve of election.

The fact that Modi has got Gujarat in the electoral bag by placing it in the forefront of development and governance has become, on all accounts, less compelling than the question: Where does Modi go from here?

Certainly, by his accomplishments as well as by the high quality of his leadership and his ability to overcome obstacles in his drive towards the goals he sets for himself, he has proved himself to be made of Prime Ministerial timbre. When the wheel of fortune turns in favour of the BJP and/or the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), his march to the top slot would be virtually inevitable. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)