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Political Diary
New Delhi, 16 June 2012
Presidential Drama
ALL ABOUT QUID PRO
QUOS
By Poonam I Kaushish
Phew! It was high political drama that vacillated between a
tragedy and a farce over who will occupy the Presidential gaddi last week. Happily, in
a world where mediocrity is the norm, all’s well that end’s well. But in its
wake, it has left democracy more blemished and ravaged. With the devil taking
the hindmost!
Undeniably, erudite Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee will
be India’s
13th Rashtrapati capping 45-years run in politics. Known for his
razor sharp intellect and memory, the 77-year-old West
Bengal leader and Congress trouble-shooter for eight years is a
walking encyclopedia with expertise in the Constitution, governance and a
stickler for Parliamentary rules.
Alas, only if the Congress had nominated him earlier and
spared us the nautanki played out by ally
Mamata and Samajwadi’s Mulayam. Both cocked a snook at Sonia, hurling “their” Presidential
bombshell: ex President Kalam, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and former Lok
Sabha Speaker Somnath Chatterjee. Thereby, reducing the Presidential poll to
Machiavellian maneouvers bringing to the fore the worst kind of chicanery and
politricking.
Clearly, a rancid and revolting game of one-upmanship
wherein it was not about the right man occupying Rashtrapati Bhavan or his
credentials but all about unprecedented ugly “quid pro quo” deal-making, with each Party bargaining hard to get
its way and say. This holds out ominous portends for Indian democracy. The
tragedy of the unedifying drama marks a total collapse of leadership in the
Union Cabinet with governance in shambles coupled with acute policy paralysis,
economy on the downslide with allies demanding and extracting their pound of flesh.
For Manmohan Singh per
se the M&M bombshell is the worst embarrassment. His credibility, never
high has reached its nadir. Mamata and Mulayam effectively mocked him, no
matter if it ripped coalition dharma
to shreds. His views don't seem to count in the Party or the Government.
Congressmen worry that Mukherjee’s departure will make him more vulnerable in
the lead-up to the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.
Undoubtedly, Sonia drove
a wedge between Mulayam and Mamata but it holds out menacing warnings for the
Party. One, Sonia has to contend with wily Mulayam’s shrewdness, and grapple
with the dog-eat-dog politics of the Hindi heartland. Two, the Party would have
to pay a heavy price at every step, be it a Bill, Executive decision et al. Three,
the regional Parties, Left and BJP want their ego massaged.
Significantly, when nothing works for the Congress, the CBI
does. For years, the fear of various cases probed by the CBI has restricted BSP’s
Mayawati, RJD’s Laloo, Samajwadi’s Mulayam and DMK’s Karunanidhi from
‘over-reaching’. Otherwise, there is no political logic to strengthen the
Congress' hands in such a crucial election. See how CBI is trying to get Jagan Reddy
to fall in Congress line.
Besides,
there is realisation that Samajwadi minus Trinimool’s buffer would turn more assertive.
Mulayam makes no bones of bailing out the Congress from “outside” only after a
bitter campaign in the UP Assembly polls earlier this year wherein the Party
got only 28 seats, facing a near-rout in its family's pocket boroughs.
Thus,
he wants to keep the levers of blackmail in his hand giving him elbow room to
question Government decisions and assert his independence vis-à-vis legislations that do not meet his political objectives. Pertinently,
this would make Rahul’s fight to bring UP back in to the Congress fold more
difficult along-with imposing restrictions in targeting the State Government.
For
Mulayam it is a win-win situation. A friendly Centre would make son Akhilesh’s
tenure as Chief Minister easy. He can raise the bogey of backing a ‘secular’
Government's nominee for his Muslim vote-banks. Plus the bonus of a CBI go-slow
on various cases against him. The SP is also angling for the post of Vice President
for Ram Gopal Yadav who turned down the Rajya Sabha’s Deputy Chairmanship earlier.
In Andhra,
the YSR Jagan hurricane has decimated the Congress in the Assembly
bye-elections. With 15 of 18 seats under his belt, the Party’s erstwhile
problem child has established his position as the principal challenger to the
Congress in the State. Worse, the Party’s inaction on the demand for Telangana
threatens to wipe it out in the region as well. In such a scenario, it would be
advisable that the grand old Party keep its allies in good humour, including
Mamata.
Undeniably,
Pranabda’s ascension to Rashtrapati Bhawan is a setback for Mamata. Inflated by
the repeated success vis-à-vis
Congress of bullying tactics, she overplayed her hand. Making the fatal mistake
of out-reaching by partnering the crafty SP boss. Ignoring strong indications
that Mulayam could do a volte face given his track record of reversals, change
sides and support Mukherjee.
With
Sonia moving adroitly Mamata was out-maneouvered, exposing the limits of her
veto in the UPA. Today, she is at the crossroads and looking for a face saver.
Leaving the UPA would mean a loss of comfort from a friendly Centre. With Sonia
gaining the upper hand, the Congress-Mamata equations have altered which might
see the Congress now pushing for reforms.
On
its part, post taming her, the Congress wouldn’t like to put all its egg in
Mulayam’s basket has offered Mamata a face saver, “reconsider” her position.
Besides, in the State the Party is not on sound footing. As a saying goes, hell
hath no fury like a woman scorned and Mamata, bruised ego with limited leverage
within the UPA might hurt her ally by ensuring the Congress’s marginalisation
in State politics. After fighting the recent municipal polls alone, she might
refuse any pre-poll arrangement with the Congress in 2014.
As
for the Opposition, the BJP played smarter by half. By waiting too long it not
only got caught in the quagmire of fast-moving developments but was out-smarted
by Sonia. Pranabda’s candidature seems to have disturbed the Party's tactical
line and brought to the fore fissures within the NDA. The Hindutva brigade wanted
a contest, its ally JD(U) considered this futile as opposition for opposition
sake would lead to a loss of face. In BJP scheme, it would gain by getting old
allies Naveen Patnaik’s BJD and AIADMK’s Jayalalitha back in to the NDA fold.
In sum, Pranabda’s
victory is just one
important stage in the greater political battle. Right now, with zero growth
and a bleak financial future ahead, the Congress's managers have to show that
Sonia’s authority and charm is the glue that binds the UPA together into a
cohesive force. Time has come to put all
the crassness and acrimony behind and reintroduce an element of sanity and
sobriety.
The Congress has to ensure that the
UPA’s fortunes are not damaged further by mohalla
mentality allies. The nation and its economy cannot afford to continue with the
present sleep-walking set-up. Given the all-round public cynicism about our netas and the continued erosion of Constitutional
institutions, it is vital we redefine the Presidency. Rather than play
hardball, our polity need to re-build public confidence in our political and Constitutional
processes. India
needs a President who should act as the check point for the ruling Government
not as a rubber stamp. Any suggestions? ---- INFA
(Copyright,
India News and Feature Alliance)
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