ROUND THE WORLD

New Delhi, 31 December 2007

POWER-SHARING WAY OUT

By Dr. Chintamani Mahapatra

School of International Studies, JNU

Political killings in Pakistan are not unprecedented. But the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in the midst of an election campaign and widespread hopes of the restoration of democracy has serious political, economic and security implications for Pakistan as well as others.

The mystery surrounding her death and the diverse interpretations, accusations and denials will have a political impact within Pakistan. And certainly the confused citizens of Pakistan will exercise their right to vote in the future on the basis of their own understanding of the situation.

The Opposition parties, including some members of the Bhutto family have pointed an accusing finger at the Musharraf Government for failing to provide the necessary protection to Benazir after her return from self-exile.

But the direct involvement of President Musharraf is unlikely and he can only be accused of an act of omission rather than commission. After all, he struck a political deal with Benazir abroad to share power in the aftermath of the elections under constant US encouragement.

If the elections had gone ahead and Benazir’s party had succeeded in winning the majority seats in the National Assembly, President Musharraf would have gained the most by a power-sharing arrangement with Benazir. It would have given legitimacy to his role in restoring the civilian political processes and perhaps could have brought more positive points in the country’s public opinion. In any case, he would not dare support or back a conspiracy to eliminate Benazir after shedding his uniform.

The Musharraf Government has been consistently pointing the finger at the Al Qaeda. Although, the accused Al Qaeda members have denied responsibility in Benazir’s killing, some analysts believe that there could be an Al Qaeda hand, if not direct, at least an indirect hand.

First of all, the Taliban and the Al Qaeda, as claimed, may not kill women, but they would be the last to tolerate a woman coming to power in Pakistan. More particularly, the anti-US and anti-Musharraf members of these two organizations would be the last to tolerate a leader who would strike a deal with the US and agree to participate in an election that in their view would be the least fair or free.

Why did the Al Qaeda deny any hand in this gruesome incident? It is likely that they would not like to provoke a large section of the Pakistani people who would vote for Benazir.

But these are logical analysis and logic may not lead to truth. In fact, there is a demand that if the Musharraf Government accuses the Al Qaeda, then it should come up with satisfactory evidence to back up its claim.

Then there are others who think that some elements in the Musharraf Government have been opponents of Benazir and supporters or sympathizers of the Taliban and Al Qaeda. There could be a deeper conspiracy to eliminate Benazir from the political scene with some tacit backing of these elements. Benazir’s departure from politics could weaken the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and bolster those who were soft on religious extremists or even religious moderates. Once again there is no evidence.

Given the complications of this issue and the lack of clear evidence at the moment, the Democratic Presidential candidate of the US, Hillary Clinton, has called for an independent international investigation to this incident. But will Pakistan agree? Investigations always take time.

Now more pressing issues are keeping the efforts to restore democracy on. Since the PPP has agreed to participate in the elections and the former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has agreed to reconsider his earlier refusal to participate in the elections, there is little likelihood of an emergency being declared or the consolidation of power by the military.

The Bush Administration has been putting considerable pressure on Musharraf to democratize the polity. It was Washington that encouraged Musharraf and Benazir to sort out their long-standing differences and reach an understanding to restore democracy in Pakistan. There were also speculations about an informal power-sharing arrangement between Musharraf and Benazir.

It was Washington which egged on the Pakistani President to give up his uniform and lift the national emergency imposed by him in the aftermath of the spreading terrorist activities and suicide bombings. The Bush Administration did not want the terrorist groups to prevent democratization and under the same logic pressures are coming from Washington to hold elections even after Benazir’s assassination.

Elections are just a matter of time. But will Pakistan be stable during the election process? Can there be free and fair elections if terrorist activities continue? Can the Government maintain law and order without resorting to excessive force or even curtailing personal liberty?

If elections do take place, will there be proper restoration of civilian authority? If religious parties, widely assessed as having minority support in the country, win a large number of seats, what may be the security fall-out? Can there be a power sharing arrangement between Musharraf and the religious groups? If not, will there be more violence? If yes, what will be its impact on the war on terrorism?

There are more questions than answers to Pakistan’s current crisis and its implications. The Bush Administration hopes that the restoration of a certain degree of civilian authority would turn Pakistan more stable and would make more numbers of Pakistanis abandon their anti-American sentiments and opinions. It also hopes that a good combination of civilian and military authority in Pakistan would strengthen its efforts to deal with the Al Qaeda threats in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Elections in Palestine, Iraq and Afghanistan did not bring expected results. Similar fate awaits Pakistan in the near future. Civilian rulers in Pakistan brought no great results for India-Pakistan relations in the past, nor did the military rulers. Maybe, a power-sharing arrangement between these two sections of the Pakistani society will bring better results for the country and its neighbours and allies. ---- INFA

(Copyright India News & Feature Alliance)