Round The World

New Delhi, 3 May 2012

India-Afghan Partnership

CAN WE OPTIMISE SITUATION?

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

‘Strategic Partnership’ is one of the most fashionable and over-used phrases in international relations, with every promising bilateral relationship becoming a strategic one.

Pertinently, India just implemented its strategic partnership with Afghanistan: Holding the first session of the India-Afghanistan Partnership Council and convened the first Joint Working Group on Political and Security Consultations. Besides, three Joint Working Groups under the Partnership Council on Trade and Economic Cooperation; Capacity Development and Education; and Social, Cultural, Civil Society and People-to-People Contacts will meet soon.  

Arguably, what does this strategic partnership entail in terms of India’s interest? Does New Delhi have a long-term plan to ensure its security after western forces withdraw from the Afghan battlefield? Despite it becoming second nature for everyone to assert the Afghan peace process should be Afghan-led, questionably: Who will eventually lead Afghanistan in the near future.

Will Karzai continue to hold the reins of power, howsoever rickety? Or will the Taliban rise to power with full force once western forces withdraw? Is India talking to the right people in Afghanistan? What game is Pakistan planning to play in the near future? How should India respond?

Importantly, the situation in Afghanistan has reached a critical juncture whereby New Delhi needs to make some quick and hard decisions.  Keeping the Afghan Government engaged is one of them which has been done efficiently till now. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visited Afghanistan in May 2011, soon after Osama Bin Laden was hunted down in Pakistan.

A few months later in October, President Karzai visited India officially inking the strategic agreement that envisioned a number of working groups dealing with different issues. Foreign Minister of Afghanistan Zalmai Rassoul’s recent visit and the first session of the Partnership Council have set in motion a dynamics that cannot be slackened.

A highlight of his visit was India’s decision to hold an investors’ conference on Afghanistan, hoping to enlarge the field of private investments in the war-torn country. On a Government-to-Government basis, New Delhi is one the largest donors in Afghanistan’s reconstruction having pledged $2 billion since the 2001 US invasion.

The investor’s meet hopes to open up the country for more competitive and transparent investments. In this field, India will face stiff competition from China which has an eye on Afghanistan’s vast mineral deposits having already won some coveted contracts including the lucrative Aenak copper mine. India has the Hajigak iron ore mine and is looking at securing petroleum blocks in northern Afghanistan and copper mines in four other parts of the country.

Interestingly, Kabul is ready to cash in on this opportunity and make the most out of the competitive search for resources among the regions big economies. In a welcome development, Pakistan too is expected to join the investors’ meet. Given that of late India and Pakistan have not only taken significant strides towards economic engagement but also Islamabad has shown a cooperative attitude which could boost economic integration in the sub-Continent.

Indeed, with stakes being high a lot depends on Afghanistan’s stability and security and the socio-political makeup that emerges in the near future. Presently, the Karzai Government does not seem to be control of the situation. With President Obama busy with his re-election the Afghan war in a foreign policy weakling in his Presidential campaign.

Notwithstanding, Obama’s unannounced Afghanistan visit where he signed a strategic pact which envisions tackling the post-withdrawal phase in the country, many criticized it as a political gimmick to shore up his foreign policy credentials on the poll eve. A Taliban attack in Kabul just hours Obama left the country underscores a resurgent Taliban is clearly not in a mood to compromise and seems confident of winning the war, forcing foreign forces to withdraw.

Moreover, Pakistan’s double game: Providing safe haven to terrorist groups like the Haqqani network in North Waziristan responsible for many NATO casualties has proved a major blow to the war effort.

Further, since Osama’s killing in Abottabad, US-Pakistan ties have been under severe strain with various rounds of talks coming a cropper. Washington-directed drone attacks continue to ignite the war of words between the two countries.

Worse, Pakistan is in dire straits. The cold war between the military and the civilian Government continues. With the Government’s fate hanging in balance, not only is the Pakistani Taliban giving sleepless nights to the State’s security apparatus but Islamabad is slowly losing the safe American hand.

However, at the same time, all sides involved in Afghanistan know that safeguarding the country’s future needs Islamabad’s active support. Pakistan, specifically its powerful military has always played a pivotal game in the socio-political churning that Afghanistan has gone through since the Cold War days to the Taliban’s creation in the 90s and continues to take sides in the ethno-political clashes within Afghanistan.

Clearly, Pakistan’s military is supporting some groups and providing safe havens while simultaneously aligning with US in its terror war. But, this double game stands exposed now, with Americans clearly annoyed with Pakistan’s reluctance to fight terrorism sincerely. The question is: Is New Delhi making optimum use of this new situation?

Recently, India and Pakistan have made some major strides towards greater economic engagement. But, efforts should be made to open communication links with the military establishment and that is where New Delhi should pressure Washington in back-channels communication.

Despite complications in their relationship, Washington still wields a lot of influence in Islamabad. No other country, not even China would stick its neck out to assist Pakistan in its military ambitions if Washington threatens to wash its hands off completely.

The weakening position of the Pakistani military vis-à-vis anti-State elements should be exposed. A combined Indo-US effort towards softening the might of the Pakistani military would go a long way in preserving security in the region and also in making lives easier for the Americans in the post-withdrawal phase.

In sum, India-Afghanistan strategic partnership should aspire to move out of the usual rhetoric and chart territories instrumental for the security of Afghanistan and the region as a whole. New Delhi has taken a step towards training Afghan forces, and the Karzai Government should expose Indian policy-makers to the reconciliation process.

Moreover, New Delhi should keep track of the figures on the other side of the fence. Namely, Taliban with whom the Americans and the Afghan Government are engaging. India should keep its ears and eyes open and monitor all elements that are bound to take instrumental roles post the 2014 withdrawal, lest we are caught yet again with a hostile power in Kabul. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)