ROUND THE WORLD

New Delhi, 27 November 2007

A NEW BEGINNING IN MIDDLE EAST?

By Dr. Chintamani Mahapatra

School of International Studies, JNU

Representatives from more than 40 countries have agreed to meet at Annapolis, Maryland, from November 27 for three days to restart a peace process in Middle East that has been stalled for years.

Given more than 60 years of protracted conflict between the Arabs and Israelis and the failure of several mini and large conferences and diplomatic efforts, it is foolish to put too much hope on the outcome of the Annapolis meet. But the general prediction around the world that it would produce absolutely nothing is depressing pessimism.

The Annapolis peace talks and its outcome will be examined and analyzed in weeks to come, but it is safe to argue now that it is a new beginning for two reasons. First, the Bush Administration is seriously contemplating bringing about a Palestinian State. And after lots of rhetoric on this issue, the Annapolis Conference is the first international effort in that direction. While the agenda is not focused on the creation of a Palestinian State, the meeting is the beginning of a process that aims at establishment of a sovereign homeland for the Palestinian people.

Secondly, this diplomatic initiative of the Bush Administration is significant in view of the number of participants attending this Conference. Even India has been invited to this peace Conference and the Prime Minister’s Special Envoy for West Asia Ambassador Garekhan has gone there to attend this grand multi-lateral effort for bringing peace to the Middle East. Never before have representatives from so many countries participated in a Conference for addressing the issues of the perennially bleeding Middle East.

It is easy to dismiss the significance of this Conference by arguing that such conferences hardly resolve long-standing conflicts. There are others who see in this American initiative an attempt by President Bush to enhance his public image at home and score higher points in the public opinion polls. It is argued that the Annapolis Conference is an election year stunt.

It is true that election campaign for Presidential nominations has begun in full swing in the United States. But so far it is an intra-party affair. Contestants for party nominations are debating with one another and the issues of the Middle East are dominating the debates.

But it should be noted that George Bush will be completing his two terms in office and thus will not be a candidate for the forthcoming November 2008 Presidential election. Attraction of office thus is not a point for consideration. Is he just seeking to score points in the opinion poll? This is also a weak contention.

What is more important for George Bush is the legacy he is going to leave behind when he relinquishes his office on January 20 2009. There are a few achievements of his Administration which have not adequately been appreciated.

First of all, he sternly dealt with the perpetrators of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the US and made Osama bin Laden run for his life. Dismantled the terrorist financing networks and training facilities in a number of countries and overthrew the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.

Secondly, the Bush Administration was successful in exposing the deadly nuclear black market and turning the father of the Pakistani nuclear bomb into an international criminal. Thirdly, he along with his allies was able to persuade Libya to abandon its nuclear ambition and join the mainstream international community.

Fourthly, the Bush Administration through multi-lateral diplomacy successfully persuaded North Korea to dismantle its nuclear weapons, close down its nuclear weapon facilities and denuclearize the volatile Korean Peninsula.

Last but not the least, the Bush Administration had an important role to play in encouraging a peace process in South Asia and in substantially improving relations with India, thus marking a paradigm shift in the US approach to South Asia.

However, the failures and lack-luster performances of the Bush Administration are so significant and telling that unless something is done during the next 14 months, the Bush legacy would never be rated high by future historians.

It is a weakness on the part of every occupant of the American White House to leave something great for future historians. George Bush is no exception. The inability of the United States to restore order in Afghanistan, let alone reconstruction and nation-building, after more than six years of militarily intervening in that country is a distinct black spot on the Bush Administration’s report card.

Perhaps, worse than even Afghanistan is the condition in Iraq. President Bush apparently sent US troops to Iraq to liberate the Iraqis from Saddam Hussein’s dictatorial rule. But more than four years after removing the Saddam regime from power, the US has neither been able to bring political stability or economic improvements.

The standard of living of the people has deteriorated beyond imagination. Reconstruction and nation-building is far from satisfactory and the State of Iraq faces a possible disintegration into three different states along the sectarian divide.

Further, Israel, America’s most trusted and most powerful ally, failed to prevail in the last Lebanese War. The Hezbollah in Lebanon and the HAMAS in the Palestinian territory have proven to be hard nuts to crack.

Against the backdrop of all these developments, the Bush Administration is blamed for making the US the most hated in the region. The public diplomacy of the Administration has not been able to win the hearts and minds of the people in the Middle Eastern streets.

The Bush White House nonetheless has realized that a positive movement towards restarting a Middle East peace process with the stated goal of a Palestinian Homeland could address one of the central causes of Islamic radicalism and terrorism. A sincere effort towards this objective, moreover, could go a long way in reducing anti-Americanism in the Muslim World.

Thus the Annapolis Conference’s significance should not be underestimated. It is a multi-lateral effort by the Bush Administration --- so widely condemned for its unilateralism. Where the Conference is at fault, however, is keeping the Iranians out of it. Like Libya and North Korea, Iran needs to be engaged and not isolated. ---- INFA

(Copyright India News & Feature Alliance)