Round The World

New Delhi, 30 October 2007

DISASTER IF AFGHANISTAN, IRAQ IGNORED

By Dr. Chintamani Mahapatra

School of International Studies, JNU

The joint communiqué issued on October 24 after the meeting of the Foreign Ministers of India, China and Russia is completely silent on the events and issues relating to Afghanistan and Iraq. This communiqué reiterated the triangular relations evolving between India, China and Russia are not targeted against a third country. It was perhaps feared that comments or a coordinated approach to the Afghan or Iraq crisis would offend the US and some NATO members.

However, if the India, China and Russia triangular relationship has to assume a substantive character, ignoring significant issues, such as Afghanistan and Iraq would spell disaster. Simply making rhetorical statements related to terrorism, drugs trafficking etc. would not hold well.

It is true that these three countries do not have identical positions on Afghanistan and Iraq. But there are certain similar perceptions, which could have found a place in the joint communiqué and would have indicated a desire on the part of a resurgent Russia, rising China and the emerging India to come to terms with the two most significant dangers challenging Asian stability and peace.

There are indications that the Western alliance under the US leadership is incrementally failing to stabilize and reconstruct Afghanistan and Iraq. Afghanistan is central, in addition to Pakistan, to tackle international terrorism. Iraq is one of the key actors in the maintenance of long term energy security in the world. Both these countries are under the military control of the Western powers for years.

Four years after the US military intervention, Iraq appears to be much worse off than it was earlier. Iraqi nationalism has become a thing of the past and various ethnic groups are at war with one another.

The plan to create a cooperative federalism is not working and a centrally controlled Iraq is now next to impossible. What is increasingly becoming likely is the emergence of multiple states out of the present Iraq or an unstable, fragmented and weak Iraq posing enormous security challenges to regional peace and stability.

More significantly, an increasing number of Americans are skeptical of the Bush Administration’s approach to Iraq. The Democratic Party is not only opposed to the continuation of the troops presence in Iraq, the leading Presidential nominee for the 2008 election Hillary Clinton in an article in Foreign Affairs has promised to initiate US troops withdrawal within six days of entering the White House, if elected. Even the Republican Party does not appear to have a united voice on Iraq any more.

The situation in Afghanistan is even worse. Six years after the US military intervention and removal of the Taliban Government, the State-building efforts in that country are going nowhere. The Taliban is rapidly re-grouping and spreading its influence. More and more Afghans have been expressing their support to the return of a Taliban-led Government.

The opium production in that country was negligible during the last days of the Taliban Government and today Afghanistan accounts for more than 90 per cent of the world opium production.

The US got almost unanimous support from the international community in its fight against the Taliban regime in Kabul. NATO for the first time in its history invoked the self-defence clause and offered complete support to the US.

While Pakistan reluctantly distanced itself against the Taliban, Iran too came out in favour of the US action in Afghanistan. A large number of the Afghan people welcomed the US soldiers into their territory with the hope of seeing a renewed, peaceful and stable post-Taliban Afghanistan.

But today, the situation has completely changed. Attacks against the US and NATO forces are rising day by day. There were hardly any suicide bombers during 2001-2004. This year alone there are more than 70 instances of suicide bombings in Afghanistan. Not only are the Afghan insurgents turning against the Western forces, even Pakistan is allegedly hesitant to give its best in the war against the Taliban and Al Qaeda.

Significantly, Pakistan has begun to witness and experience the impact of terrorism in the hands of those it once trained and equipped to fight against its perceived enemies and adversaries. Recently more than six dozen Taliban soldiers have reportedly been killed in the Helmand province in Afghanistan in one of the fiercest battles with the NATO forces.

In the meantime, the United Nations has expressed a desire for more NATO forces to protect the UN aid workers who have been under attack from the insurgents. According to UN sources, more than 30 aid workers have been killed, more than 70 abducted and more than 100 convoys have been looted this year. And unless this trend is checked, UN aid efforts would face substantial hurdles.

It appears that six years after the removal of the Taliban regime in Kabul, the law and order situation in the country has been going from bad to worse. It reminds one the bloody years of the Soviet military presence, the post-Soviet troop withdrawal chaos and bloodshed and the steady rise of the Taliban as a force to reckon with.

The US fairly swiftly overthrew the Taliban regime after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, but has failed to capture or kill the top leadership. It has also failed in State building efforts. The Taliban was defeated for a short while, but regrouping of the cadres seems to be taking place at a faster rate now. According to an unpublished report prepared for the Pentagon, popular support to the idea of a return to the Taliban-controlled Government in Kabul has doubled since May among the Afghan people.

The American legislators have begun to question the wisdom of Bush Administration’s policy toward Afghanistan. There are complaints that the $3 billion expenditure in countering drug production has failed to produce results. The US has spent about $6 billion in training a new police force in Afghanistan.

More than 76,000 police forces have been trained, but US legislators are concerned that “no one knows how many report for duties and how may are capable of handling situations.” Moreover, there is no accountability of weapons supplied to police stations and no end use verification.

One legislator argues: “…the Bush Administration scaled down the nation building efforts in Afghanistan in less than two years and diverted it to Iraq. There was bipartisan support in the US, global support, including by Iran to set Afghanistan right and even the Afghan people shed their traditional xenophobia and invited coalition forces to end the Taliban excesses. But the US Administration failed to capitalize on this.”

Russia, China and India have to take note of the fact that continuing failure of the Western country to stabilize Iraq and Afghanistan will spell disaster to this region. There is less likelihood of the US being challenged in its territory, as was done on September 2001, by Al Qaeda or other terrorist bodies. There are more likelihood of Russia and China and India facing the brunt of chaos and instability in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Let us hope that the triangular talks involving the Foreign Ministries of these three countries will take serious note of these events in the subsequent rounds. --- INFA

(Copyright India News & Features Alliance)