Round The World

NEW DELHI, 10 July 2007

 US-Russian Relations

FROM COLD WAR TO COLD CONFLICT

By Dr. Chintamani Mahapatra

School of International Studies, JNU

The recent meeting between the US President George Bush and the Russian President Vladimir Putin in Maine certainly did not reflect the enmity of the Cold War years, but observers could easily delineate the slow emergence of a new kind of Cold Conflict between the current hyper-power and the erstwhile superpower.

For more than a decade after the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the birth of a new Russia, successive Americans Administrations sought to marginalize Russia in international decision making. Russia was a helpless bystander when the US redefined the mission and geographically expanded a relic of the Cold War, NATO, to the door steps of Russia.

Moscow silently suffered and groaned, but could not roar and scream when President George Bush forcefully wrote the obituary of the Anti Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM) of 1972 through unilateral measures and went ahead to implement a decision to build a missile defence system. Washington argued that the missile defence plan was aimed at neutralizing the missiles of "rogue states", but Moscow understood its wider ramifications better than any one else.

On major issues of regional security and diplomacy, such as Bosnia, Kosovo, the Arab-Israeli conflict, military intervention in Iraq and several other issues, Washington refused to accord an equal status and regard to Russian views and cooperation and rather sought to sidestep, ignore and overlook Moscow. American strategic analysts practically ruled out the possibility of Russia's re-emergence as one of the leading player on the global political stage.

It is true that Russia was quickly enrolled as a new and eighth member of the group of super rich nations. But this decision was based on political and not political-economic rationale. Moscow understood this and yet accepted it on account of its image value. In most of the global decision making process on trade, investment and capital issues in the G-8, the role of Russia was anything but crucial. On political issues, Russia did participate in the G-8 Forum's deliberations, but the US sought to carry Russia along with the Western plans and policies rather than seek Moscow's views before decision-making in theforum.

The tables began to turn once again in a slow but steady process when the terrorist attacks on the US, altered perhaps for all time, the political-security landscape of international relations. Russia, which faced persistent Western charges of human rights violation while battling terrorists in Chechnya, suddenly discovered that the Bush Administration was ready to engage Russia in its stated policy of fighting global terrorism.

Russia, India, Britain, Spain and many other countries were wrestling with their respective problems of terror attacks for long. But their terrorists were within their own territories or in the neighborhoods. The US was actually humbled beyond imagination by the 9/11 terrorist attacks both in its political and commercial capitals — Washington, D.C. and New York—because Middle Eastern terrorists were behind these acts, the plans for which were hatched in the caves of distant Afghanistan.

Knowing the dangers and depth of combating terrorism, Putin responded by becoming the first foreign leader to speak to President Bush and offered him help. The US indeed needed Russian assistance which was crucial to flush out the Al Qaeda from Afghanistan and bring down the Taliban regime in Kabul.

Additionally, the Russian experience in Afghanistan was first hand due to its geographical proximity and also because of the ten years of Soviet troop presence in that country. Moscow not only helped the Americans in intelligence sharing but also quietly facilitated the construction of new US military bases in Central Asia — a region now known as Russia's "near abroad".

After the 9/11 incident, the US perception of its policy towards Chechnya also changed. The two erstwhile cold warriors began cooperating in tackling a dominant threat to national and international security — terror networks! Russia also did not object to the deployment of NATO troops in Afghanistan. Moscow probably wondered what the numerically inferior NATO forces would achieve in the land-locked country that the Soviet troops could not do in ten years in Afghanistan?

In the meantime, Putin was able to fix the economic problems affecting the country since the December 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union. Under his Administration, Russia managed an impressive five times growth rate of the economy and slowly the country has emerged as an important player in the global energy market.

As Putin began to behave more assertively, the Americans and Europeans began to find fault with his Administration. Accusations and allegations against the Putin Government piled up and US-Russia ties assumed the look of a tense and conflict-prone relationship. First, Putin was accused of concentrating power in his hands and governing with undemocratic and authoritarian tendencies. Second, the Russian attempts to toughen its stand on many issues with the Central Asian Republics and the US falling out with Uzbekistan were seen as Moscow's game plan.

Third, Moscow tightened its control over the Caucasus region, which was viewed as imperialistic. Fourth, the Russian interference in Ukrainian politics was seen as an anti-Western move. Last but not the least, the US seems to be worried and is watching the European attempts to forge closer ties with Russia on energy-related matters.

Would the US like Russia to be close partners with the European allies? Perhaps, not beyond a point. As a geo-economic proximity between Russia and Europe may have geo-political consequences for the US.

However, Putin has systematically been trying to be brave and take up issues with the US and its allies. When the Bush Administration argued that its missile defence systems were aimed at rogue states, Putin offered Russian radars for use and joint efforts. This surprised the US policy makers. He also countered allegations on the Ukrainian election issue by criticizing the rising influence and maneuvering in that country's political processes.

Russia has refused to buy the US arguments on Iraq and Washington’s approach to Iran. Though Putin did not oppose the US efforts to enter the Indian arms bazaar, he has taken several measures to increase the Russian share. While endorsing the Indo-US civilian nuclear cooperation deal, Moscow hopes to sell civilian nuclear reactors to India.

The climate of US-Russian relations was certainly tense when Bush and Putin held discussions on international issues in Maine. This meeting was important for Bush to strike a compromise with Putin. The US President has too many foreign policy debacles on his plate to add one more --- tense ties with Russia during the closing years of his Presidency. This meeting also provided an opportunity to Putin to square some allegations against his rule. What has been increasingly evident is a slow growth of cold conflict between the erstwhile cold warriors. ----- INFA

(Copyright India News and Feature Alliance)