Round The World
New Delhi, 22 November 2011
‘Memogate’ Scandal
GROWING DISCORD IN PAK
By Monish Tourangbam
Research Scholar, School of
International Studies (JNU)
As India
covers new diplomatic grounds and gets busy re-invigorating its ‘Look East’ Policy, Pakistan
finds itself yet again embroiled in what is being called the ‘memogate’
scandal. New Delhi has made clear its stand to
continue commercial activities in the South China Sea and a non-proliferation hawk
like Australia has given
indications that it might eventually sell uranium to India. Indeed, quite a time for Indian
diplomacy. But, the story is quite different in our neighboring country.
Lately, developments in
India-Pakistan relationship have evoked much enthusiasm among observers.
However, such optimism on both sides cannot overshadow the internal mess that Islamabad is struggling
with. The skewed civil-military relationship has been a major concern for
Indian analysts and policymakers and the current memogate scandal rocking Pakistan’s
polity is a mirror to this highly distorted relationship.
The scandal arose from a claim made
by a well-connected Pakistani-American businessman Mansoor Ijaz that he had
served as the conduit for a memo authorized from the then highest authority in
Pakistan (President Asif Ali Zardari) through Pakistan’s ambassador to the
United States, Hussain Haqqani (who has since been forced to resign on Tuesday
last). The memo was purportedly written by Haqqani, on behalf
of President Zardari, and the American receiver was the then Chairman of
the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen.
The memo reportedly sets out
Zardari’s plea for US backing against any attempted coup by his country’s military
in the wake of Osama being killed by US forces at Abottabad May this year. The
controversy surfaced in October through an article written by Ijaz in the Financial Times. Commenting on the origin of the memo, he
had written: “The embarrassment of Bin Laden being found on Pakistani soil had
humiliated Mr. Zardari’s weak civilian government to such an extent that the President
feared a military takeover was imminent. He needed an American fist on his army
chief’s desk to end any misguided notions of a coup--and fast.”
Perhaps answering the question as to
why a highly placed and influential diplomat like Haqqani had to use him, Ijaz
while speaking to Indian news channel NDTV
said that the Pakistan
ambassador reached out to him saying he was a “plausibly deniable channel” for
them. Earlier, the issue did not merit much of a serious debate
as its credibility was in question, but recently with Admiral Mullen confirming
its existence, the news has picked up steam, raising serious questions over the
fate of the Zardari government in the coming days.
Senior Indian officials keeping track of the
developments commented that a military takeover at the moment was highly
unlikely. At the same time, they said that the memogate scandal was yet another
serious blow to the Zardari regime, which is confronted with the ‘steady' gains
on ground by Imran Khan, the cricketer-turned-politician, and fissures within
the Pakistan Muslim League led by the former Prime Minister, Nawaz Shariff.
Recall that Imran Khan had very recently commented that the ISI was calling the
shots in Pakistan, adding that
the Islamabad
government lacked the moral courage thus “giving the space to ISI to assert its
powers.”
Notwithstanding whosoever comes to power in Islamabad in future, the real question is: will this episode
change the existing civil-military imbalance in Pakistan? The military is
undoubtedly a major kingmaker in Pakistani politics, and a sort of symbiotic
relationship between the civilian and military establishments, especially in view
of its relationship with the US
has blunted any chances of scuttling the military’s influence in Pakistan.
The US has astutely taken its hand off this
mess with Mullen commenting that he did not consider the memo credible. The
fact that the Obama administration did not act on the alleged request from
President Zardari absolves it from any serious wrongdoing. “I understand this is a
big story in Pakistan.
It's partly a domestic story. We all treat it as such. We remain in contact
with Ambassador Haqqani,” State Department spokesman Mark Toner stated.
Hence, while it is being treated as more
of an internal divide inside Pakistan,
the mess could have deep ramifications for the future of Pakistan, and for countries in the region like India and extra-regional powers like the US deeply
engaged there. Such is the magnitude of the scandal that the ISI Chief Lt. Gen
Ahmed Shuja Pasha rushed to London to meet Ijaz to verify his claims.
According to Ijaz, he had provided
the full data and evidence, including records of phone calls, SMS messages, Blackberry
exchanges and emails. The claims and counter-claims have reportedly been discussed
at the highest levels of the Pakistani establishment and even Haqqani had to be
summoned to Islamabad to explain his side of the story.
He had apparently denied reports linking him to the memo but
has resigned. Interestingly, news reports have unearthed another angle to the
American side of the story. Former US National Security Advisor James Jones has
confirmed that he had acted as a courier to deliver the controversial memo from
Ijaz to Mullen. However, in an email sent to some Pakistani journalists, Jones
added, “I was not in government when I forwarded the message to Admiral Mullen
on May 10.”
According to Ijaz, in return for the US support, President
Zardari had offered to replace Pakistan's powerful military and intelligence
leadership and cut ties with militant groups. Apparently, the memo also
includes Zardari’s assurances to fully cooperate with India in bringing to book
the perpetrators of the 26/11 attacks within or outside the government,
including intelligence agencies. When quizzed on this matter, Ijaz told NDTV that this was among several
proposals “designed to win the confidence of the US administration.”
Asked about the impact of the political situation in
Pakistan on India, Indian officials asserted that New Delhi had weathered much
tougher situations and there was no reason for concern. They stated: “The ISI
has thrown everything possible at us from 1989 to 1999 beginning with Kashmir
to Kargil. We need to worry only if it gets worse than what we have experienced
during the period.”
The civil-military imbalance in Islamabad is something quite
discernible and there is no doubt that it has proved a slow poison detrimental
to Pakistan. The geostrategic location of Pakistan and its status as a
frontline State for US strategic interests in the region has inevitably
strengthened the Pakistani military and intelligence to a fault in comparison
to other civil institutions in the country.
Hence, civilian governments in the country have always been
at the mercy of the military generals. This is something that every politician
in Pakistan clearly understands but for various reasons finds it difficult to
acknowledge publicly. Clearly, the ‘memogate’ is reflective of this tension and
unearths the discord between civilian and military institutions that baffles
Pakistanis as well as external actors. The weakness of institutions in the
country has produced unhealthy personality-based authorities. Indeed, the
domination of the men in uniform has to end if Pakistan is to prosper and start
healthy relations with India. ---INFA
(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)
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