ROUND THE WORLD

 NEW DELHI, 16 January 2007

EU MODEL FOR INDO-PAK DÉTENTE?

By Dr. Chintamani Mahapatra

School of International Studies, JNU

It may be a coincidence that when the External Affairs Minister, Pranab Mukherjee visited Pakistan to hold yet another round of dialogue with the Pakistani leadership for peaceful resolution of the disputes and differences, the Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh got an opportunity to interact with the Chinese President on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in the Philippines.

The Indian and Chinese leaders have gone a long way in comprehensively improving bilateral ties, even as efforts continued to resolve the outstanding territorial dispute between the two countries. The Indian Prime Minister’s half-an-hour conversation with the Chinese President was profoundly cordial and it took place a little before the bilateral dialogue on the boundary dispute was to resume.

Significantly, China and Pakistan have maintained close political and security ties since the early 1960s and enjoy one of the most exemplary all-weather friendships. One of the original factors that led to such Sino-Pakistan ties was India. Both Beijing and Islamabad had adversarial relations with New Delhi and they came together on a common anti-India platform.

However, tectonic shifts have taken place in Sino-Indian relations in the post-Cold War era while Indo-Pakistan ties are still struggling to come to terms with their past problems. But India’s emerging economic and political ties with China have caused considerable consternation in Pakistan.

When the United Progressive Alliance formed the Government, the former Foreign Minister, Natwar Singh created controversy by expressing his opinion that Islamabad should learn from New Delhi and Beijing while formulating its foreign policy moves towards India. The Pakistani leadership clearly did not take this comment seriously and harped on its own old approach.

Many changes have occurred in Indo-Pakistan relations since then and the two neighbours have experienced one of the longest period of relative peace and modest cooperation, despite the occasional hiccups. People-to-people exchanges, encompassing academics, culture, sports and political leadership, are unprecedented in the entire history of Indo-Pakistan relations.

While terrorism has not been eliminated, the Indo-Pak war of words over this issue has been replaced by proposals and dialogues over the need for establishing a joint anti-terrorism mechanism. Complaints over cross-border terrorism from India against Pakistan have certainly reduced in number. Terrorist activities in Jammu and Kashmir no longer hit the front-page headlines in Indian newspapers. Diplomatic differences between the two countries rarely generate political heat in Islamabad or New Delhi. Leaders from both the countries often remember the unprecedented bilateral cooperation in disaster management operations.

However, Kashmir issue still occupies the uppermost position in the Pakistani minds. President Musharraf continues to churn out proposals for quickly resolving this more than half-a-century old problem. New Delhi keeps on advising sober and careful thinking on this issue. What is resolved quickly can dissolve swiftly too. At the same time, the Indian leadership has been broad-minded enough to allow interactions between the Kashmiri moderate leaders with the Pakistani leaders.

But Pakistan does not reciprocate in this. No group of leaders from Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK) comes to New Delhi to speak with the Indian leaders. On the contrary, Pakistani leaders now harp on the need to take into account the wishes of the Kashmiri people. This sounds as if India does not do so. Soon after the External Affairs Minister, Mukherjee returns from his trip to Pakistan, Hurriyat leaders are likely to visit Pakistan to convey their wishes to the Pakistani leadership.

All these are healthy developments, if only they are done in a transparent manner and for mutual benefits. There is also recognition in India that the Kashmir issue is a vital issue that needs timely resolution. India’s economic growth can sustain itself and in fact pick up further momentum, if Islamabad and New Delhi step on a cooperative path by resolving all the outstanding disputes.

It is with this conviction that India has upgraded the bilateral dialogue with Pakistan to the ministerial level from mere bureaucratic interactions and has given priority to its relations with Pakistan in its foreign relations.

Islamabad was stung when the former Indian Foreign Minister, Natwar Singh prescribed the Sino-Indian model for the conflict resolution. This time around, Pranab Mukherjee went to Pakistan with another model, which is the EU model. Pakistan and India could follow, he said, the footsteps of the Europeans who forged a cooperative organization for mutual benefits and prosperity, leaving aside their past differences and not allowing the past to determine their future.

Indeed, several small, medium and large countries in Europe have succeeded in regional integration, despite a conflict-ridden past. This was possible only after major powers, such as France, Britain and Germany could bury their hatchets. Similar cooperation in South Asia is certainly practicable. But the most important pre-requisite is Indo-Pakistan détente to start with and Indo-Pakistan collaboration in due course. The smaller countries of South Asia would draw inspiration from the examples set by New Delhi and Islamabad.

Will Islamabad care to contemplate upon this idea? Will Pakistanis of various political beliefs and convictions agree to lend their support to such an idea? The immediate response, of course, would most likely be skepticism. After all, an Indian Foreign Minister has proposed it. The Pakistanis cannot be faulted on this. We Indians also react with suspicions to Pakistani proposals of various kinds.

What is required initially is a willingness to consider this idea and not to reject it out of hand. Pakistan also needs to restrain itself from coming out with a counter proposal of this kind. Then there will be a proposal match, which will certainly be unhealthy.

The prospect initially does not seem to be bright. Pakistan certainly is going to find fault with this idea, by arguing that it would lead to the marginalization of the Kashmir issue—the core issue from the Pakistani perspective. The fear that India wants to sideline the Kashmir issue or delay its resolution by focusing on cooperation in other areas remains predominant in the Pakistani psyche.

What could be done by India to remove the fear factor from the Pakistani mind? New Delhi perhaps has to reassure Islamabad that it would give priority to talks on the Kashmir issue, while moving ahead with cooperative ventures on other areas. Confidence building measures, conflict resolution initiatives and cooperative mechanisms need to be pursued simultaneously rather than one after the other sequentially. ------ INFA

(Copyright India News and Feature Alliance)