ROUND THE WORLD

New Delhi, 10 November 2007

HEADING TOWARDS DISINTEGRATION

 By Sreedhar

Since the declaration of emergency on November 3, the developments in Pakistan indicate that the country is slowly drifting in to a civil war. President Musharraf’s rule is being opposed by two groups --- jehadis on one hand and defunct political parties and activists of civil society on the other.

The latest reports indicate there is an even underground movement opposing Gen. Musharraf. According to unconfirmed reports the jehadis have captured large parts of the Swat area and Waziristan and are moving in two directions. Some are moving towards Peshawar and others towards Islamabad.

The initial reports indicate that the police and the Pakistani para-military forces numbering over 900, in these areas have surrendered to the Tehreek Nafaz-e-Shariet Muhammadi (the Movement for Enforcement of Islamic Laws), with their weapons.

According to Western intelligence assessments over the past few years, the Pakistani Armed Forces are vertically split into pro and anti jehadi forces. According to some assessments around 40 to 50 per cent of the Armed Forces are sympathetic to the jehadi cause and support them.

The pro-jehadi Armed Forces argue that they have fought along with them against the Red Army during the 1980s and facilitated their training in the subsequent years. Over the years, these jehadis have become part and parcel of the Pakistan Establishment.

In addition, this more than two decades long association between the Armed Forces and jehadis makes it clear that each support the other in their cause like the jehadis facilitating Pakistan’s clandestine nuclear proliferation. With the majority of the jehadis being locals, now the rank and file of the Armed Forces, are also asking why they should fight against their brethren?

Meanwhile, there is a tussle between the young lawyers of the Pakistan Bar Council and Benazir Bhutto to lead protests against President Musharraf from next week onwards. There is no trust among many young Pakistanis about Benazir’s credibility. She is being seen as a politician who colluded with Musharraf and managed to come back to Pakistan.

Against this backdrop, the immediate question that is being debated among various Pakistani friends is what will be the future of the Pakistani polity? It is no longer being described as a failing State or failed state or even a withering State. They perceive the present developments as the beginning of end of Pakistan. In this context one can visualize four scenarios.

The first could be that Gen. Musharraf will continue to rule Pakistan for some more time to come with a rag-tag coalition like President Hamid Karzai is doing next door in Afghanistan. Many observers feel that people like Benazir Bhutto may join the Government any time.

Some reports coming from Dubai indicate that Benazir has been offered the post of the Prime Minister in the new dispensation by President Musharraf and she has accepted it. At this stage one is not too sure how long such an arrangement can continue.

Besides, seeing the opposition to Gen. Musharraf increasing day by day, the ambitious Benazir might be looking for greener pastures and could even try to settle scores with the Pakistani Army. Some observers even feel she will ditch Musharraf at an opportune time. Only the timing is not known.

The second scenario could be that the present breakdown of law and order will force another General to step in and replace Musharraf. Unconfirmed Pakistani reports indicate that Gen. Musharraf is under house arrest (!) and the Corps Commanders are debating about the modalities to be followed to change the head at the top. These reports gained further credence when the US State Department announced that they are not keeping all their options on one person --- Gen. Musharraf, alone.

Since most of the Pakistani donor countries have expressed their displeasure about the declaration of emergency, in the next few weeks the external aid inflow into Pakistan will considerably slow down. The Pakistani economy has been sustaining itself on external aid only during the past five years.

Present estimates place that, between 2001-06 Pakistan got around $ 20 billion aid. Thus, if the aid inflow stops, the Pakistani economy would collapse. Already the Karachi stock market index is tumbling indicating that there is a crisis in the Pakistani economy. All this necessitates some quick action by the Pakistani Armed Forces who are at the helm of affairs now, to turn the tide against these negative trends.

The third scenario could be that President Musharraf will hold elections as scheduled in January 2008 and restore democratic rule in the country. Already there are reports in the media stating that the emergency is for two months only and the elections would be held as scheduled in January 2008.

However, this scenario seems to be highly unlikely, for two reasons. One, notwithstanding the pressure from his allies like the US asking him to give up his office of Chief of the Army Staff and allow the elections, Gen Musharraf knows only too well that he is indispensable to Washington in its war against terror. Therefore, whatever may be the US’s friendly advises, his support in Washington would not come down.

At another level, Gen. Musharaff feels that the political vacuum created by him in the country and the influence enjoyed by the jehadis would continue for some more time. Therefore, by doing a balancing act by pleasing the jehadis at one end and giving some incentives to people like Benazir on the other, he can survive.

The last scenario could be that different socio-political forces in Pakistan would push the country into different directions. Already, the Taliban-al-Qaeeda combine rule most of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and parts of the North West Frontier Province.

Many observers who visited these areas during the past few weeks assert that these areas have declared themselves as independent from Islamabad. A Taliban type of rule is in vogue in these areas. Moreover, in many Government offices in the jehadi occupied areas, the Pakistani National Flag has been pulled down and replaced by black and white flags reminiscent of the Taliban type of rule. Already, a local private FM radio in the Swat area has been announcing the areas captured by the jehadis since November 5.

There are also reports that even the Pakistani army deputed by Islamabad, to gain control of the area and establish its authority, has surrendered to the local tribal leaders loyal to Taliban-al-Qaeeda.

Given this dicey situation, the unfolding events indicate that the two provinces, Baluchistan and the NWFP are tilting towards separation from Pakistan. In the past too, both these provinces felt that they were being exploited by the Punjabi-dominated Pakistanis and had been demanding separation from Pakistan.

However, the demand for a creation of Phaktoonistan by the Pashtuns and a separate Baluchistan by the Baluchis (by people like Khan of Kalat) was crushed by brute force. Today, all these sub-ethnic forces have ganged up together again and are fighting against the Pakistani State. Significantly, the coming months will show whether Pakistan is going to experience another 1971 type of situation.

Clearly, the territorial integrity of Pakistan is of immediate concern to the two major powers --- US and China, and to immediate neighbours like India. The US considers Pakistan as a frontline State in its war against terrorism. In fact, it has stationed more than 25,000 US troops in Pakistan permanently. Besides, the American strategic community is divided over the division of Pakistan. Some feel that a divided Pakistan would be unable to provide safe havens to the jehadis and managing smaller states would be much easier in the emerging geo-political order.

The Chinese consider that Pakistan provides an important outlet to reach the Indian Ocean. Their investment in the Gwador port in Baluchistan is one example. The thriving bilateral trade by road via the Karakoram highway connecting both the countries is another example of the Chinese stakes in Pakistan. Till now Beijing has refused to comment on the unfolding civil war like situation in Pakistan.Many observers aver that neither of these two allies of Pakistan have any control over the events happening in that country.

From the Indian prospective, the developments in Pakistan are unfortunate. South Block is busy debating where these will lead to. If Pakistan’s disintegration becomes inevitable, the civil war among the new nation states would continue for some more years to come.

In this new situation what would be the position of the jehadis operating in J&K? There is no gainsaying that the jehadis can not expect any support from the Pakistani Establishment as in the past. ---- INFA

(Copyright India News & Feature Alliance)