Round The World

New Delhi, 4 October 2007

Military Rule in Myanmar

BEGINNING OF THE END?

By Dr. Chintamani Mahapatra

School of International Studies, JNU

The peaceful marches by the monks and the common people against the continuing misrule of the ruling military junta in Myanmar appear to be the beginning of the ultimate end of the authoritarian governance in that country.

For close to about two decades, the pro-democracy movement in Myanmar under the leadership of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi was going no where, even as the international community gave little more than lip service to the cause of the restoration of democracy.

Myanmar under the rule of the military junta was co-opted as a member of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN). The Asian giants — India and China — have maintained cordial relations with Myanmar in trade, investment and security areas. The US continually voiced its concern over violation of human rights and lent its moral and political support to the pro-democracy movement, but it had little effect on the military junta.

When the military junta reportedly resorted to brutal suppression of the peaceful marchers, the United States and the European Union imposed sanctions against Myanmar. However, there are concerns that such sanctions are not working specifically because China and India maintain cooperative ties with the military junta.

One can easily understand Beijing’s support to the military junta. China, a Communist country itself, is not terribly interested in promoting democracy in Myanmar. To an extent, even ASEAN has little interest in the restoration of democracy in Myanmar. Some members of ASEAN are non-democratic and the association in principle opposes political interference in the domestic affairs of the member states.

Thus, the focus of attention is on New Delhi’s position. India itself is a vibrant democracy in the Third World. There are expectations that India should lend its support to the democratic elements in Myanmar. India has made common political cause with the United States for working towards enlargement of democracy. There are many critics within the country of the Government’s lacklustre support to democracy in the neighbourhood, including in Myanmar.

However, the Government of India faces considerable constraints in interfering in the domestic politics of Myanmar. First of all, Myanmar, among our neighbouring countries, is one of the few to extend its cooperation in India’s war against terror in the north-eastern states.

Several of the terrorist groups from this region have established training camps and hideouts in the dense forest of Sagaing in Myanmar and Bangladesh. Like the long border with Bangladesh, India shares more than a thousand kilometers of land border with Myanmar. Without the cooperation of these Governments, it would not be easy for India to adopt a robust counter-terrorism policy.

However, unlike Bangladesh, Myanmar has extended substantial cooperation to India’s counter-terrorism efforts. Especially since Myanmar’s Junta Chief Senior General Than Shwe’s visit to Delhi in 2004, coordination between Indian and Myanmar security forces in counter-insurgency operations has witnessed dramatic growth.

General Shwe actually assured India that he would not allow his country to be used by anti-India militant groups. When Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee visited Myanmar in January this year, counter-terrorism cooperation between the two countries was institutionalized.

Secondly, Myanmar sits over an important segment of hydro-carbon resources of South-East Asia. Its offshore gas fields have the potential to help India meet its energy challenges against the backdrop of a growing economy. In the recent past New Delhi offered $150 million of assistance to explore the energy resources of Myanmar.

Thirdly, a strategically located and mineral resource-rich Myanmar is being courted by several countries, such as South Korean and French oilmen, German tourists, Russian arms sellers, Chinese real estate developers and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) seeking facilities to protect and promote its interests in the Indian Ocean. India cannot afford to avoid its own constructive role in engaging Myanmar in the cooperative frameworks to fulfill its national interests and in maintaining regional peace and stability.

In the face of political instability in Myanmar and the murmuring in the Western capitals that China was partly responsible for Myanmar’s military junta’s ability to defy the western sanctions and perpetuate authoritarian rule, the Chinese Government has taken a well-crafted policy position.

China’s Tang Jiaxuan, a personal envoy of the Chinese President Hu Jintao, told the Yangon’s special envoy U Nyan Win that “China wholeheartedly hopes that Myanmar will push forward a democracy process that is appropriate for the country." China’s official news agency Xinhua circulated Tang's extended comments that China “sincerely hopes Myanmar will restore internal stability as soon as possible, properly handle issues and actively promote national reconciliation".

China clearly took such a position to protect its image as the main supporter of the military junta in Myanmar. But a careful examination of the comment would reveal that China did little else except hoping and did not push for a democracy that was not “appropriate for the country”!

Significantly, India’s response to the unfolding events in Myanmar was not drastically different from that of China. The Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee recently met Myanmar’s Foreign Minister U Nyan Win, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly and “expressed concern at the current situation in Myanmar, noting that as a close and friendly neighbour, India hoped to see peace, prosperity and stability in Myanmar.”

Mukherjee also expressed the hope that the process of national reconciliation and political reform, initiated by the Government of Myanmar, would be taken forward expeditiously. Further, he suggested that the “Government could consider undertaking an inquiry into the recent incidents and the use of force.”

If China and India do little more than just hope the situation improves in Myanmar, one can expect that sooner than later the military junta would restore peace by suppressing the peace marchers. But history is witness to the fact that no Government can tick on for long once the common people show their determination to bring down a Government that in their perception was not delivering the goods.

Remember, the transition to democracy in the Philippines and South Korea in the 1980s took place against the backdrop of the suppression of democracy in Myanmar in 1988 and the violent crackdown by the Chinese Government against the pro-democracy demonstrators in Beijing in 1989.

But the unfolding events in Myanmar suggest that the people’s power will now triumph. The monks are highly revered in Myanmar. Some soldiers recently refused to open fire on them and defied the authorities. The country’s economy is not doing very well for equitable resource distribution in the society. The country remains pathetically isolated in a rapidly globalizing world. It is now a matter of time before the junta bows before the people’s will.

It is time for the Government of India to think ahead and plan for an appropriate response rather than treat the developments in Myanmar to be yet another minor incident involving the pro-democracy activists’ struggle against authoritarianism. ---INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)